ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Steve]

>>They have to do three advisory packages every six hours. One of them has to be last.

Yeah, I know. I wasn't trying to be a smart*** or anything. I just wanted the info when I wanted it.

Steve

[mattpetre]

Well there is almost certainly some politics going on -- with tomorrow the start of a week on Wall Street, its not in the NHC best interest to project a major hurricane in the GOM even if conditions are there for one. It's better to be conservate ATM. Once/if certainly becomes high, then NHC will communicate their forecast because of the safety of residents along the Western GOM coast.

And if it's too late it will only be the geeks on S2K that think so...

[HURAKAN]

should NHC issue a TS warning for western Cuba too?

The NHC doesn't issue watches or watchings, governments do.

Does the NHC issue the warnings for the US or does the government?

I believe its the local county governments.

[RL3AO]

should NHC issue a TS warning for western Cuba too?

The NHC doesn't issue watches or watchings, governments do.

Does the NHC issue the warnings for the US or does the government?

The NHC is the government. They issue watches/warnings for the US and territories (in the Atlantic and EPac).

[Wx_Warrior]

I don't know about the entire gulf...

[Tireman4]

I hope there is not a media frenzy here in the Houston Metro area tomorrow. Goodness. Derek, do you think that the entire Texas coast should watch this? ( I am hoping you have not already answered this...)

please ask these questions like this in the analysis forum so the answer does not get buried beneath the chatter

So sorry. LOL.

[njweather]

So if they can't find a closed surface center, that means it's probably not there, which means it'll form sometime in the near future.

Would delayed development of a closed center have any effect on the system's track?

For instance, if it forms later, rather than sooner, would it pull north?

[jhamps10]

Well there is almost certainly some politics going on -- with tomorrow the start of a week on Wall Street, its not in the NHC best interest to project a major hurricane in the GOM even if conditions are there for one. It's better to be conservate ATM. Once/if certainly becomes high, then NHC will communicate their forecast because of the safety of residents along the Western GOM coast.

wow I'm glad I didn't say that.

[Air Force Met]

So if it's an open wave shouldn't Dolly be downgraded?

By Derek's standards...yes!


Ducking

[boca]

I just now have finally caught up reading all the posts today. Been working all day. After further review I have to agree with AFM, Dean, and all the others talking about llc reformations. I do agree though that the current one will probably make landfall around cozumel, but will quickly die off then a new one will quickly reform under that massive blob that has been firing throughout the day once it enters the gulf. From there who knows. One thing I saw that, forgive me for not remembering who, that has me wondering is the loop that shows the NE flow out of Mexico towards MS, AL. Not sure if it means anything but something to watch as others have said. I guess tomorrow will be the day of reckoning for us gomers.

It was me Cyclone Mike.Its that SW flow that makes me think that it might go further north than what the NHC is predicting right now.Tomorrow well know more.

[Chacor]

Does the NHC issue the warnings for the US or does the government?

The NHC is the government. They issue watches/warnings for the US and territories (in the Atlantic and EPac).

Technically speaking, they must still confer with local WFOs.

[mattpetre]

If this IS an open wave, have you seen many that are more vigorous or more closely resembling a TC than Dolly/4?

[MiamiensisWx]

The following post is NOT an official prognosis.

That was an excellent and authoritative discussion by Franklin, in my view. It's likely the most accurate assessment of the system at this time.

I believe the SW winds at the mid to upper levels indicated by the recent NOAA data sets strongly suggests that a new LLC is slowly developing beneath the MLC, which is evident via Cancun radar. The strongest convection is contributing to stronger low level inflow in the vicinity. In other words, a LLC is likely gradually forming under the strongest thunderstorms with the highest tops. This suggests a possible track scraping the extreme northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula and much more time over water with ideal ventilation. As an inner core may eventually become established, a stronger TC over the Gulf of Mexico is becoming increasingly plausible. Central and southern coastal Texas faces a significant risk from Dolly, and even a Category 1/2 TC produces intense winds.

I personally expect Dolly to eventually attain hurricane intensity, with a growing possibility of a Category 2/3 hurricane.

[Honeyko]

IMO, there's a fairly obvious rotation of that precipitation (watch the southern portion).

Assessment: There's a mid-level circulation there, and it will eventually drop down to the surface.

[cycloneye]

A tad to the right is the track at 11 PM.

[MiamiensisWx]

The following post is NOT an official prognosis.

That was an excellent and authoritative discussion by Franklin, in my view. It's likely the most accurate assessment of the system at this time.

I believe the SW winds at the mid to upper levels indicated by the recent NOAA data sets strongly suggests that a new LLC is slowly developing beneath the MLC, which is evident via Cancun radar. The strongest convection is contributing to stronger low level inflow in the vicinity. In other words, a LLC is likely gradually forming under the strongest thunderstorms with the highest tops. This suggests a possible track scraping the extreme northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula and much more time over water with ideal ventilation. As an inner core may eventually become established, a stronger TC over the Gulf of Mexico is becoming increasingly plausible. Central and southern coastal Texas faces a significant risk from Dolly, and even a Category 1/2 TC produces intense winds.

I personally expect Dolly to eventually attain hurricane intensity, with a growing possibility of a Category 2/3 hurricane.

...and if the upper air pattern progged by the operational GFS verifies to the teeth, this one may not weaken prior to landfall. In fact, a Claudette-type redux (i.e. pre-shore intensification) is very possible.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking at the buoys and data, I think the LLC is near 20.05 north/85.8 or so.

[stevetampa33614]

If this IS an open wave, have you seen many that are more vigorous or more closely resembling a TC than Dolly/4?

]

Im sure an LLC is already under the convection, they just havent found it or for whatever reason its having growing pains. Look at the Sat loops. Waves dont do this. No sir they do not.

[Sanibel]

Radars can be tricky in a storm like this. What looks like a sure center can be radar illusion caused by mid level clouds.

Since NHC doesn't know where the center is I think there's a possibility that it is further east than what is being said and it hasn't shown up yet.

[PTrackerLA]

So now we don't have a surface center!!! This system just keeps fooling us I swear...

I'm so confused.