ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[MGC]

This system is like a skipping tornado only on a larger scale. This is like the third time the LLCC has fallen apart. I am wondering if it will ever develope a circulation that can keep its self together for longer than 12 hours. So, look for the center to reform but where? Tropical Wave Dolly seems to like to form a LLC away from the convection. Will this happen again tonight or tomorrow? Or will a center finally form under the deep convection like a NORMAL tropical cyclone?.....MGC

[gboudx]

I hope jeff doesn't mind. Email update from him.

Hurricane forecasted in the western Gulf of Mexico this week.

Residents along the Texas coast should review hurricane preparation plans and fully stock hurricane supplies.

See impacts section below for State of Texas ramp up.

Current:

Dolly continues to organize this evening with the low level center still out ahead of the mid level center. Outflow is rapidly increasing in the W and NW quads. and Dolly will gradually intensify up to landfall early Monday on the NE part of the Yucatan.

Track:

Note: GIV mission is in progress and KDRT, KBRO, KCRP, and KLCH will be launching soundings every 6 hours in support of NHC forecasting operations.

Dolly will continue to move toward the NW with a gradual decrease in forward speed. A high pressure ridge currently over TX will weaken Tuesday and Wednesday allowing Dolly to slow even more and may meander in the western Gulf of Mexico. The ridge is forecast to build back in from the east Thursday and this should push Dolly toward the WNW....million dollar question is where is Dolly when this happens. Current NHC guidance brings a hurricane in to extreme northern Mexico...with the northern edge of the error cone at about Matagorda right now. Will see how new GIV data and sounding data affects the model forecast track. Current track brings core of dangerous NE quad across S TX and Padre Island.

I want to be very clear....DO NOT focus on the exact forecast track but the overall error cone. This is an organizing system and a center re-formation could have large track changes at the end of the period.

Just in 18Z GFDL is shifting north to S TX and 18Z GFS shows the system turning north and moving along the lower TX coast and then inland around Rockport.

Intensity:

I am becoming concerned on the intensity as conditions appear 100% go for rapid intensification in the Gulf of Mexico. 250mb high will build over Dolly over 85+ SST's and good upper level venting. Once the inner core consolidates there appears very little to inhibit rapid deepening. NHC currently forecast a cat 1...however a cat 2 is certainly possible and a cat 3 or higher is not out of the question.

Preparation Actions:

The State of Texas is PLANNING for the impact of a category 2 hurricane on the Texas coast between Brownsville and Corpus Christi early Thursday morning.

At 800am Monday the State Operations Center in Austin will fully activate.
H-72 timeline was established at 700pm this evening
H-36 is set for 700am Tuesday morning
H-0 is set for 700pm Wednesday evening.

FEMA, evacuation, and fuel liaisons will be in Austin early Monday and the 34 agency Texas Hurricane Response Plan team will meet at 200pm Monday afternoon.

All 34 agencies will fully activate at 800am Tuesday morning.

Fuel supply teams will be ready to activate the evacuation fuel supply readiness to S TX on Monday along with hundreds of busses if needed. Alamo Command will be established to coordinate regional evacuations of S TX if it is needed.

Evacuation recommendations will likely be release Monday for coastal residents on South Padre Island and along the lower TX coast.

Impacts:

Dolly is already a very large storm with TS force winds extending outward 175 to the NE from the center. NHC is forecasting a 300 mile wide diameter of TS force winds at landfall which will impact a large part of the Texas coast. Will need to ramp up wind, seas, and tide forecast to match NHC track. Currently TS force wind radius should remain SW of Matagorda Bay...however only a slight change in the track to the north could bring TS force winds into our area. Seas will need adjustment upward to match western Gulf of Mexico hurricane and current NHC track. Expect seas to build quickly Tuesday to 8-12 feet offshore waters and 6-8 feet nearshore. Increasing long period swells will begin beach water pile-up and tides will begin to run above normal late Tuesday. May need coastal flood watch/advisory for Matagorda Bay based on the NHC track at this time.

Residents along the Texas coast should review hurricane preparation plans and fully stock their hurricane supplies.

Persons living in coastal storm surge areas should review their evacuation plans and be prepared to leave if ordered by local officials.

Next update will be Monday morning.

[jaxfladude]

Gas prices!!!
What about the gas prices?

A valid question now...IMHO that is...

[Yankeegirl]

I know! I was thinking about the gas prices... the cost of gas just dropped here a little and now with the talks of "something" going into the gulf they are going to jump up like 25 cents just because...

[CajunMama]

Gas prices!!!
What about the gas prices?

A valid question now...IMHO that is...

let's just stick with the dolly in here. Want to talk about the gas prices go to the gas thread in OT.

[Stormcenter]

WHICH COULD BE AVOIDED IF A CENTER REFORMS TO
THE NORTH WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION.

interesting.

Very possible.

[Jason_B]

Gas prices is the least concern for those in the path of this storm coming to this thread looking for information.

[boca]

I know! I was thinking about the gas prices... the cost of gas just dropped here a little and now with the talks of "something" going into the gulf they are going to jump up like 25 cents just because...

That's on the back of everyones mind right now.

[cycloneye]

Lets continue on topic.There is a thread about gas prices at the off-topic forum.

[MiamiensisWx]

The following post is NOT an official prognosis.

That was an excellent and authoritative discussion by Franklin, in my view. It's likely the most accurate assessment of the system at this time.

I believe the SW winds at the mid to upper levels indicated by the recent NOAA data sets strongly suggests that a new LLC is slowly developing beneath the MLC, which is evident via Cancun radar. The strongest convection is contributing to stronger low level inflow in the vicinity. In other words, a LLC is likely gradually forming under the strongest thunderstorms with the highest tops. This suggests a possible track scraping the extreme northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula and much more time over water with ideal ventilation. As an inner core may eventually become established, a stronger TC over the Gulf of Mexico is becoming increasingly plausible. Central and southern coastal Texas faces a significant risk from Dolly, and even a Category 1/2 TC produces intense winds.

I personally expect Dolly to eventually attain hurricane intensity, with a growing possibility of a Category 2/3 hurricane.

...and if the upper air pattern progged by the operational GFS verifies to the teeth, this one may not weaken prior to landfall. In fact, a Claudette-type redux (i.e. pre-shore intensification) is very possible.

Based on the more northerly LLC, I believe central/southern Texas is becoming increasingly favored over Mexico in regards to a general strike region.

[Aric Dunn]

new animation .. with 6 different images..

disregard the circle its old..

[dixiebreeze]

The following post is NOT an official prognosis.

That was an excellent and authoritative discussion by Franklin, in my view. It's likely the most accurate assessment of the system at this time.

I believe the SW winds at the mid to upper levels indicated by the recent NOAA data sets strongly suggests that a new LLC is slowly developing beneath the MLC, which is evident via Cancun radar. The strongest convection is contributing to stronger low level inflow in the vicinity. In other words, a LLC is likely gradually forming under the strongest thunderstorms with the highest tops. This suggests a possible track scraping the extreme northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula and much more time over water with ideal ventilation. As an inner core may eventually become established, a stronger TC over the Gulf of Mexico is becoming increasingly plausible. Central and southern coastal Texas faces a significant risk from Dolly, and even a Category 1/2 TC produces intense winds.

I personally expect Dolly to eventually attain hurricane intensity, with a growing possibility of a Category 2/3 hurricane.

...and if the upper air pattern progged by the operational GFS verifies to the teeth, this one may not weaken prior to landfall. In fact, a Claudette-type redux (i.e. pre-shore intensification) is very possible.

Based on the more northerly LLC, I believe central/southern Texas is becoming increasingly favored over Mexico in regards to a general strike region.

Absolutely agree, Miami, ,maybe even farther N.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Thanks Boca, sorry about that. Just can't see Dolly cutting across the Yuc. per the 11pm track. Like you said tomorrow is the day. Don't know if it will make a lot of difference or not. A north gulf high seems to want to hold strong to block much more north movement after monday, I guess it could always move out quicker or be a little weaker then models show.

[mattpetre]

The following post is NOT an official prognosis.

That was an excellent and authoritative discussion by Franklin, in my view. It's likely the most accurate assessment of the system at this time.

I believe the SW winds at the mid to upper levels indicated by the recent NOAA data sets strongly suggests that a new LLC is slowly developing beneath the MLC, which is evident via Cancun radar. The strongest convection is contributing to stronger low level inflow in the vicinity. In other words, a LLC is likely gradually forming under the strongest thunderstorms with the highest tops. This suggests a possible track scraping the extreme northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula and much more time over water with ideal ventilation. As an inner core may eventually become established, a stronger TC over the Gulf of Mexico is becoming increasingly plausible. Central and southern coastal Texas faces a significant risk from Dolly, and even a Category 1/2 TC produces intense winds.

I personally expect Dolly to eventually attain hurricane intensity, with a growing possibility of a Category 2/3 hurricane.

...and if the upper air pattern progged by the operational GFS verifies to the teeth, this one may not weaken prior to landfall. In fact, a Claudette-type redux (i.e. pre-shore intensification) is very possible.

Based on the more northerly LLC, I believe central/southern Texas is becoming increasingly favored over Mexico in regards to a general strike region.

Being located in Missouri City and not wanting to be labled a wish-caster (which I find to be a very slanderous term when used so loosely) I've been leaning away from talking about an Upper TX Coast hit, but the more I watch this storm the more I worry that this may not be a Southern event at all. I'm thinking Corpus area at this point, but it really looks like 94L just wants to keep pushing itself further north (to use a personification and a tropical downgrade in one sentence). Unprofessional opinion and should be generally disregarded of course. If I were to go with just a gut feel, I'd say 95 miles SSW of Downtown Houston as a Cat3, but very large wind field.

Unprofessional opinion and should be generally disregarded of course.
Unprofessional opinion and should be generally disregarded of course.

[Steve]

>>That's on the back of everyones mind right now.

Indeed. Mods or thread-police can say what they want, but that's the bigger impact to EVERYONE reading this forum whether you are in New York, California, Texas or anywhere else in America. Not to go way off topic, but cereal is now up to like $4.50 for a box of junk, and milk about $6.00 for name brands here. And we make the oil and gas. I don't think the average American consumer would be happy paying $5.00 or more per gallon for it. Long overdue for a revolution IMHO. Terrible policies + natural disasters = pain for everyone.

Anyway, new IR & WV out still shows no wane yet to the mlc's convection though system overall still appears to be leaning more toward the WNW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

[brunota2003]

This system is like a skipping tornado only on a larger scale. This is like the third time the LLCC has fallen apart. I am wondering if it will ever develope a circulation that can keep its self together for longer than 12 hours. So, look for the center to reform but where? Tropical Wave Dolly seems to like to form a LLC away from the convection. Will this happen again tonight or tomorrow? Or will a center finally form under the deep convection like a NORMAL tropical cyclone?.....MGC

Normal? This is 2008, three years after 2005. Has any year since 2003 ever been "Normal" with "normal" TC's?

[Javlin]

This system is like a skipping tornado only on a larger scale. This is like the third time the LLCC has fallen apart. I am wondering if it will ever develope a circulation that can keep its self together for longer than 12 hours. So, look for the center to reform but where? Tropical Wave Dolly seems to like to form a LLC away from the convection. Will this happen again tonight or tomorrow? Or will a center finally form under the deep convection like a NORMAL tropical cyclone?.....MGC

It will MGC in the GOM.

[Wx_Warrior]

Media blitz already about Dolly...What if evacuation is called and some cant afford to pay for gas?

[MiamiensisWx]

This system is like a skipping tornado only on a larger scale. This is like the third time the LLCC has fallen apart. I am wondering if it will ever develope a circulation that can keep its self together for longer than 12 hours. So, look for the center to reform but where? Tropical Wave Dolly seems to like to form a LLC away from the convection. Will this happen again tonight or tomorrow? Or will a center finally form under the deep convection like a NORMAL tropical cyclone?.....MGC

Normal? This is 2008, three years after 2005. Has any year since 2003 ever been "Normal" with "normal" TC's?

What defines "normal" TCs? There have likely been many historical seasons with similar ACE, total NS, and intensities to recent years.

On the topic at hand, I'm concerned in regards to the economic impact as well.

[Nederlander]

Being located in Missouri City and not wanting to be labled a wish-caster (which I find to be a very slanderous term when used so loosely) I've been leaning away from talking about an Upper TX Coast hit, but the more I watch this storm the more I worry that this may not be a Southern event at all. I'm thinking Corpus area at this point, but it really looks like 94L just wants to keep pushing itself further north (to use a personification and a tropical downgrade in one sentence). Unprofessional opinion and should be generally disregarded of course. If I were to go with just a gut feel, I'd say 95 miles SSW of Downtown Houston as a Cat3, but very large wind field.

Unprofessional opinion and should be generally disregarded of course.
Unprofessional opinion and should be generally disregarded of course.

I strongly agree with you matt... im looking more at corpus to matagorda bay, unless this thing starts turning over the next 12 hours....

Edit: Maybe even further north


Unprofessional opinion and should be generally disregarded of course.