ATL: IKE Discussion

[cpdaman]

last wobble at 425 pm was WSW lol.......wait for it on the slower sites

[NEXRAD]

a ts watch may not be unwarranted...even as of 11am advisory, miami was showing 41% chance of ts force winds.

andros is a hurricane watch without being in cone....a ts watch with no cone can send the right msg if deemed needed

For comparison... 1998's Hurricane Georges moved close to and a little north, even, of Ike's projected track. The 1998 storm did not bring tropical storm conditions to any areas of mainland South Florida save extreme south Miami-Dade and Monroe (mainland) counties. Ike, while a stronger storm than Georges, is still pretty compact, and is expected to stay farther south than Georges did. For Mainland South Florida to see significant impact from Ike, the storm would need to turn almost northwest and persist along such a trajectory for a significant (i.e., >8 hours) duration. While outer squalls with gusts to 34-knots may move across South Florida, especially south of Fort Lauderdale, with Ike's passage to the south, it seems improbable much more will transpire.

I'll be surprised if any watches are issued north of the Keys.

- Jay

[ROCK]

Wow, are we fighting here??? I think we can all agree the sustained WSW movement has stopped.....There will be wobbles all over the place...I would say the sustaining movement right now would be around 275-280....

Wobble Wars you got to love them.....

some of you need to realize the ridging is not smooth therefore Ike will bump up against the ridge and take these jogs / Wobbles/ Weebles.

Ike wants to go poleward in a bad way but keeps bumping into the ridge that is not a smooth concave line as the models suggests....its the overall motion that is important....

[bahamaswx]

URNT12 KNHC 072030
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 07/20:09:20Z
B. 21 deg 01 min N
074 deg 26 min W
C. 700 mb 2624 m
D. 90 kt
E. 045 deg 13 nm
F. 147 deg 106 kt
G. 047 deg 016 nm
H. 945 mb
I. 10 C/ 3045 m
J. 16 C/ 3057 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. CO16-48
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 0909A IKE OB 11
MAX FL WIND 107 KT NW QUAD 18:21:10 Z

[njweather]

URNT12 KNHC 072030
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 07/20:09:20Z
B. 21 deg 01 min N
074 deg 26 min W
C. 700 mb 2624 m
D. 90 kt
E. 045 deg 13 nm
F. 147 deg 106 kt
G. 047 deg 016 nm
H. 945 mb
I. 10 C/ 3045 m
J. 16 C/ 3057 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. CO16-48
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 0909A IKE OB 11
MAX FL WIND 107 KT NW QUAD 18:21:10 Z

What does M. CO16-48 mean?

[fasterdisaster]

Not an official forecast endorsed by S2k or any organization, just the opinion of the poster, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

He didn't move west, it's definitely WNW. There is no way he's following the middle line of the cone and he's likely to only graze the coastline going no more than 15 miles inland IMO.

[KWT]

cpdaman, it looks near due west, maybe a tiny tiny bit south of west but as others have said all the eye wobbles do make a difference.

[Vblazer]

ESPN just said ike has turned south east....

WARNING: this is a joke

[CrazyC83]

Recon also confirmed concentric eyewalls, and a pressure drop although the winds are lower now (I'd put it at 105 kt based on a previous dropsonde).

[BobHarlem]

I've been looking at the radar here and its wobbling pretty good right now, but the general movement seems west. I don't think whatever it's doing now is going to matter much.

[CourierPR]

I agree with Nexrad, I don't see that the NHC puts South Florida back in the cone...
and if Ike pulled a more NW movement over the next few days instead of west despite all model guidance....what a shocker it would be..

as if Ike has not shocked us with his SW bias already ?

Last night, Dr. Max Mayfield spoke about a typhoon that ended up hitting the Phillipines, even though all the model guidance called for a miss.

[Flakeys]

We are getting a little thunder from the what appears to be the first outer bands. I'm sending my mojo to hope, by some miracle this makes the next forcast point. LOL

Stan in the keys

[Dean4Storms]

true..and good reality check...if nothing else, this goes down as an example of when a wobble can really make an impact...helped ike bypass part of mountainout cuba....even if he resumes his otherwise steady motion and south florida can sleep peacefully in ignorance with no chance of a surprise to follow

I noticed Ike's wobbles this afternoon and tried to find any evidence of less than expected synoptic pattern changes, but came up empty. Therefore, I conclude that the hurricane's more WNW jogs seen today were just that - temporary jogs. Recall that powerful hurricanes often have eye wobbles, so the hour to hour movement of the eye feature itself really doesn't matter too much in the longer term unless the movements prove to be persistent and mirrored in the movement of the overall convective envelope. Ike's convective mass is moving generally west, as was anticipated, though it's a little hard to discern with the convective expansions and contractions that have taken place off and on during the past several hours.

As far as NHC error cones, it would take a noteworthy shift in the NHC's 5PM forecast track to bring S. Florida back into the cone, and it would take an even more dramatic shift in the storm's future path to bring Ike close enough to South Florida to bring more than outer passing squalls to the region. While that could theoretically happen, to see such actually occur inspite of tight model clustering would be just plain shocking.

- Jay

I would somewhat disagree with ya here Jay, the forecast calls for Ike to begin a turn WNW tonight and looking at WV imagery the push of the ATL. ridge was moving rapidly until it got to the western Bahamas, I can see that the push westward has really slowed allowing him to not only intensify as seen very recently but also step into the ridge harder and sooner than forecasted.

[fasterdisaster]

The pressure's dropped 5 millibars in that case?

[KWT]

Yep Crazy not surprising, this make forecasting Ike over land a touch more interesting given its inner core is in state of flux before landfall, with no one central core I've got to wonder what difference this will make overland?

[Brent]

Down to 120 mph at 5. Gained .2 since 2.

[feederband]

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND OVER OR NEAR EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

[fasterdisaster]

Here comes the ERC

[gatorcane]

well NHC is shifting the cone south yet again. Mexico threat?

[Tropics Guy]

Wow, could IKE be trying to parallel the Cuban North Coast!, seems like new overall motion is WNW., could he be trying to follow climatology and bust through the ridge, even though the synoptic set-up shouldn't allow him too.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-avn.html

TG