ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[cperez1549]

I am from Harlingen about 30 miles away from South Padre Island and there are many homes and buildings.This area is very surge prone and will flood fast and the entire valley has a bad water system so a little bit a rain we will flood within 4 hours or less especially in rurual area. I work with the Pharr Fire Dept and at this time we are getting ready for things tomorrow morning such as a long day with meetings and with NWS BRO.

[HurricaneRobert]

Where will the remain of the storm travel after a landfall hit? We need the rain in North Tx....but obvoiusly don't want any harm to the folks on the coast. Also, anyone know the status of the storm in Africa? Thanks

The models show it headed west once it hits the coast. Nothing headed towards north Texas.

[mattpetre]

This thread could quickly turn from talk about Dolly to talk about the effects of Dolly. Could someone direct us all to the correct thread to talk about these effects/preparations/etc? If we have a surprise in the morning this board will be slammed.

[HarlequinBoy]

What is the southern Texas coast like? Is it surge prone? Are homes built right on the beach like they are from the MGC eastward?

Sorry, I'm just not familiar with places below Galveston.

Yes there is plenty of beach front properties here, and mobile home as just as popular if not even more as anywhere else in the south. I think you would be surprised how close you see mobile homes in proximity of coastal bay areas.

Thanks (and thanks to you too Miami). I've never been down that far so I was curious.

[Brent]

This thread could quickly turn from talk about Dolly to talk about the effects of Dolly. Could someone direct us all to the correct thread to talk about these effects/preparations/etc? If we have a surprise in the morning this board will be slammed.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=102011

[jhamps10]

This thread could quickly turn from talk about Dolly to talk about the effects of Dolly. Could someone direct us all to the correct thread to talk about these effects/preparations/etc? If we have a surprise in the morning this board will be slammed.

prep thread for US/Mexico coastline:
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=102011

[cycloneye]

This thread could quickly turn from talk about Dolly to talk about the effects of Dolly. Could someone direct us all to the correct thread to talk about these effects/preparations/etc? If we have a surprise in the morning this board will be slammed.

There is a thread at the top of the forum for that,it says TS Dolly,NE Mex / S Texas / Preparations / Obs / Web cams.

[funster]

Wow - lost track of the LLC! Dolly likes to hide. She's so bashful.

[Steve]

>>Steve, thats just the opposite as what a houston pro met was saying. He said a possible north movement as the gulf high moves out then bends w or wnw as it rebuilds back east. What are your thoughts on Dolly looking tilted from se to nw? You thinking about something? BTW a few others have muttered the possibilty of the high that gave highs in the upper 90's to near 100 today weakening and moving out a little quicker than forecast giving us more southerly flow?. Said it could start showing signs of weakening on the western edges as early as tomorrow. As far as I am concerned that is only talk right now.

I don't know Mike. I think the model consensus is pretty strong even if they are being run off of LLCs which aren't permanent. The 3:12 radar shot on Aric's post almost wants to indicate a multiple vorticies - which there probably are. To me, the tilt is more wnw, so I still like the NHC's idea of South Texas. Tomorrow could bring some changes, but the 00z models did not. I'm just going to watch, though I don't think there is much of a threat for South LA or SE Texas at this point. I'm just going to soak up the information and learn.

Steve

[Aric Dunn]

i believe we have a new LLC forming or formed at least according to radar just east of cancun .. let post the new loop..

[canegrl04]

Dolly's going thru the channel if her center of circ is not located on land.Doesn't look like much of her is crossing land

[Sanibel]

Don't beat me up for this, but I think it's over by 20N-85W where you can see it spinning on shortwave.

[Aric Dunn]

sorry about the crudeness..

[HarlequinBoy]

Don't beat me up for this, but I think it's over by 20N-85W where you can see it spinning on shortwave.

*punches*

Eh, on shortwave it looks a bit nw of there to me. But between 20/21 and 85/86 sounds about right.


NVM, I'm dead wrong.

[Aric Dunn]

a dead give away is the well developed feeder band
i have outlined

[MiamiensisWx]

Aric's loop confirms my analysis. New LLC has formed and will only scrape the N tip of the Yucatan... big details, folks!!!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

What is the southern Texas coast like? Is it surge prone? Are homes built right on the beach like they are from the MGC eastward?

Sorry, I'm just not familiar with places below Galveston.

South of Galveston, I would say the danger is more inland flooding vs beach homes being destroyed. On North Padre Island/Mustang Island/Port Aransas (Corpus area) and South Padre Island (RGV) most of your beach front property is condos and hotels. The homes on the island in most cases are not beach front. Several Canes of years pasts like Allen, Celia, Beulah took out those homes and the land was rebuilt with the above said condos and/or hotels.

The track from the NHC looks awfully Beulah like. That one brought record floods to the RGV that are still talked about to this day. It was not only the rain that fell in the RGV that caused havoic. It was all the rain that fell in the mountain of Northern Mexico and the rivers that drain into the Rio Grande that made it worse.

[jhamps10]

sorry about the crudeness..

doing a mouse cursor track, it would have to go just about due west or a hair north of due west now for it to hit the Yucatan. Looks like it very well could miss it all together.

[mattpetre]

maybe if we look into our cristobal we can tell what will become of our long lost dolly... Seriously though, there isn't much to say other than it doesn't have a well defined LLC which also means that it has a greater cone of uncertainty than most storms this many days from the US. for that reason i'd like to see it get a center, but for many other reasons i'd much rather play this guessing game all the way to landfall.

[Sanibel]

Could be a satellite vortex Aric. If that is the center forget any weakening.