ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[lbvbl]

our local meteorologist (in SE FL) suspectst that the 5am track will shift west again due to the strengthening of the high pressure ridge... what are the chances that this HPR will weaken adn therefore allow the storm to take a more eastern track?

[Wthrman13]

I have heard it mentioned that center reformation South of Hispaniola is relatively rare.

Run a shortwave loop. NHC is reasonably close. Any IR shot you see that looks like reformation is just island tricks.

Not necessarily. I can see the possibility of a center relocation, and new concentrated convective development over an area "could" signal that (the key word is "could"). And anyway, the shortwave IR is difficult to use to pinpoint the LLC when it is obscured by deep convection...

[Ed Mahmoud]

could someone give me the climo for wilma in 1921? What made that storm hit tampa directly? If I knew that then it would be easy to cancel out a hit with fay. Obviously it's a rare occurence so something must have been special that year. Anyone have a track also?

October is very different from August. You get much stronger cold fronts in October allowing for a stronger weakness in the ridge.

True enough, but we are in a September like pattern here along the Gulf Coast, with troughs coming further South than normal this early in late Summer. It might suggest mid-September climatology as well. Since it has been dry here in SE Texas, I'm happy with the rain. This afternoons storms near IAH were moving West to East, kind of an indication to me unless the pattern changes drastically in the next month, the places most at risk for mid-September storms will be most at risk for mid and late August storms as well.

[cheezyWXguy]

From what little i can seen on IR imagery, it looks like the old llc is dying over hispaniola while a new one forms over water, hence the deeper convection further south, with at least the mid level rotation at least trying to wrap around it. Im not sure though...feedback appreciated.

[Ivanhater]

From what little i can seen on IR imagery, it looks like the old llc is dying over hispaniola while a new one forms over water, hence the deeper convection further south, with at least the mid level rotation at least trying to wrap around it. Im not sure though...feedback appreciated.

Yeah Cheezy, could be right..weak storms going over land tend to knock the low around

[Sanibel]

I'm pretty sure you'll see the center emerge out of Haiti right where NHC has it or a touch north. The convection you see on the south shore is inflow piling combined with mountain lift.

[Ed Mahmoud]

could someone give me the climo for wilma in 1921? What made that storm hit tampa directly? If I knew that then it would be easy to cancel out a hit with fay. Obviously it's a rare occurence so something must have been special that year. Anyone have a track also?

October is very different from August. You get much stronger cold fronts in October allowing for a stronger weakness in the ridge.

Oh ok it was in october that would make some sense but still how many octobers have gone by with no landfalling storms they seem to go to the panhandle. something different happened with wilma in 1921. oh someone posted the track. That would make even more sense since the track was near the bay of campeche making a wide right turn instead of a sharp wide turn that this storm would have to do. Ok I am satisfied this won't even ride the coast. Think it's a panhandle storm

They didn't name storms with female names in 1921. Or 1935. or 1938, or 1944. I could Google when they started with an alphabetized list, but, IIRC, it was early 1950s. I think they did a version of phonetic alphabet, but it got confusing figuring which year's Hurricane Able or Baker one was talking about.

[robbielyn]

I see what looks like the llc running along the southern coastline of the dr. This could be headed towards jamaica and up the western part of cuba and head into the panhandle

[gatorcane]

yeah I agree, I think it will be alot more "north" looking and exiting the W Coast of Haiti just like the NHC says it would by the time we wake up tomorrow....its deceiving right now

[Stratosphere747]

There has been indications that a new reformation was taking place to the S for a few hours now.

[Extremeweatherguy]

From what little i can seen on IR imagery, it looks like the old llc is dying over hispaniola while a new one forms over water, hence the deeper convection further south, with at least the mid level rotation at least trying to wrap around it. Im not sure though...feedback appreciated.

May be. But you cannot see a LLC on IR imagery, so following the blob of deepest convection may not be the same as following the LLC. Haiti/DR/Cuba Wind reports and recon should give us the best clues as to where the center may or may not be.

[ConvergenceZone]

I too am now getting worried about this, and I was one who said last night that it would crash and burn over the mountains ...I hadn't been keeping up with the model moves today, but looking at the last graphic with the model plots, all I can say is WOW, what a change....The thing that concerns me is that if it just travels over west side of cuba, it won't really hurt the storm much, as I understand that it's mostly flat land.. If it takes the far eastern path of the model consensus, we may be okay as far as strength goes, but if it takes the western path, oh boy..............

[cycloneye]

There has been indications that a new reformation was taking place to the S for a few hours now.

Lets see if recon confirms that occuring.

[cheezyWXguy]

yeah I agree, I think it will be alot more "north" looking by the time we wake up tomorrow....its deceiving right now

Really, if the center doesnt reform, I think a track just like NHC or slightly south appears more likely. But I think that is something we wont figure out until tomorrow. Well see, and if there really is a center reformation, then this could become much stronger than forecast right now. Even without reformation a strong hurricane looks possible further down the line.

[Ivanhater]

There has been indications that a new reformation was taking place to the S for a few hours now.

I havnt been at the computer for a while..I need to pull up some loops

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'm pretty sure you'll see the center emerge out of Haiti right where NHC has it or a touch north. The convection you see on the south shore is inflow piling combined with mountain lift.

NHC, those are trained professionals and all, and hence are probably right. But getting off the close-up floater, and staring at the bigger picture Caribbean (counter-intuitive, I know), and realizing the center is probably pretty poorly defined and distorted by land, and following what appears to be center of deepest convection, which could show where MLC is or redeveloping, I think there is a chance, maybe 50/50, new center pops South of Haiti/DR border.


But I wouldn't bet money on it.

[cheezyWXguy]

From what little i can seen on IR imagery, it looks like the old llc is dying over hispaniola while a new one forms over water, hence the deeper convection further south, with at least the mid level rotation at least trying to wrap around it. Im not sure though...feedback appreciated.

May be. But you cannot see a LLC on IR imagery, so following the blob of deepest convection may not be the same as following the LLC. Haiti/DR/Cuba Wind reports and recon should give us the best clues as to where the center may or may not be.

Yeah I know, thats why I said "what little I can see on IR imagery." I really have no idea what will happen, but I assume that within the next 24 hours it will try to resolve itself.

[AL Chili Pepper]

I'm pretty sure you'll see the center emerge out of Haiti right where NHC has it or a touch north. The convection you see on the south shore is inflow piling combined with mountain lift.

Well, I'm through looking at satellite loops tonight. From all I can tell it looks like the forecast points are pretty spot on. LLC may very little shade to the south...but then again maybe not.

[haml8]

Local 12 (KPRC) news here in Houston started the newscast with "FAY, the storm that is going to hit the NE US" of course that was the anchor NOT the weatherman. FB actually made a point to say it was a large cone and he expected it to follow more of a WEST track off W CUBA. But that was speculation at this point. Then they mentioned Katrina due to how it was originally supposed to go into FL and ended up in NOLA. Anyway, just thought I would mention that even here in Houston we are getting coverage even though the general perception on this board by the mets is that there is only a 5% chance. Of course 5% is 5%....

[Ed Mahmoud]

From what little i can seen on IR imagery, it looks like the old llc is dying over hispaniola while a new one forms over water, hence the deeper convection further south, with at least the mid level rotation at least trying to wrap around it. Im not sure though...feedback appreciated.

May be. But you cannot see a LLC on IR imagery, so following the blob of deepest convection may not be the same as following the LLC. Haiti/DR/Cuba Wind reports and recon should give us the best clues as to where the center may or may not be.

I'm operating on the assumption that the LLC is weak enough/distorted enough from land, and with 3000 meter peaks, that distortion could reach near the 700 mb level, following the strongest convection, and ignoring the weak LLC, might be the way to go. North, South or West of Hispaniola, none of it would surprise me much.