ATL: IKE Discussion

[KWT]

NHC still forecasting a hurricane when Ike emerges, I've got to admit I'll be very surprised if Ike is a hurricane by the time it makes it into the GoM.

If he grazes the coast he likely will be a hurricane.

Possibly but even then it spends 30-36hrs overland, its possible it does hold very minimal hurricane status but personally I'll be surprised...but the larger outer eyewlals forming may do it a favor, bigger core means better flow of moisture from the other sides of Cuba I guess.

[fasterdisaster]

I don't see why this matters, the fact is he has been moving WNW to NW over the last three hours. The NHC uses 6+ hour movements.

A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY


That doesn't matter?

If he moved WNW he would be only grazing the coast.[/quote]

HMMMM...So that probably matters then huh?[/quote]

I assumed you were posting that to contest the evident NW movement, apologies.

[Air Force Met]

well Ike is giving the NHC a rough time needless to say...didn't they mention in the 11AM discussion models had stopped shifting south? Guess not.

Look at this animation of the cone over time....its bent to the NW but the whole cone just keeps shifting west each advisory...I think it has shifted over 800 miles west...or so:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

Come on...the CONE shifts west because the 5 day advisory point shifts west.

We've been over this.

When the track shifts west...so will the cone. IF the track shifts NW...then the BIG circle around the points will also shift NW. Its AUTOMATIC.

[cycloneye]

Now heading slightly south of west again it seems, heading take sit close to the northern most part of east Cuba.

Link?

[fasterdisaster]

NHC still forecasting a hurricane when Ike emerges, I've got to admit I'll be very surprised if Ike is a hurricane by the time it makes it into the GoM.

If he grazes the coast he likely will be a hurricane.

Possibly but even then it spends 30-36hrs overland, its possible it does hold very minimal hurricane status but personally I'll be surprised...but the larger outer eyewlals forming may do it a favor, bigger core means better flow of moisture from the other sides of Cuba I guess.

The ERC could also mean slower weakening because he'll be trying to strengthen inland since he has at least 12 hours to go.

[feederband]

[I assumed you were posting that to contest the evident NW movement, apologies.

No probs..

[tolakram]

[KWT]

Now heading slightly south of west again it seems, heading take sit close to the northern most part of east Cuba.

Don't mean to sound harsh, but where are you seeing anything close to south of due west? Loops are very clearly wnw.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

Clearly not WNW anymore...about due west averaged out over the last 2hrs or so, it was going WNW before that though.

[feederband]

Now heading slightly south of west again it seems, heading take sit close to the northern most part of east Cuba.

Link?

I know I cant see that anywhere..

[Sabanic]

Jeff Masters this afternoon . . .

Once Ike emerges into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, a weak trough of low pressure passing to the north may be able to induce a more north-northwesterly motion to Ike, and pull it towards the Florida Panhandle, bringing tropical storm force winds to Tampa on Wednesday. The HWRF and NOGAPS models predict this, though the HWRF takes Ike further from Florida than in its previous run. The rest of the models push Ike more to the west, into the central Gulf of Mexico. The eventual landfall locations predicted by the models range from the Florida Panhandle to the South Texas coast. It is too early to guess where Ike will go at this point, since landfall is probably about 6 days away.
Intensity forecast for IkeIke has remained at constant intensity today, and no major changes are expected before landfall in Cuba tonight. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have warmed to 29.5°C underneath Ike and will warm to 30.0°C over the Gulf of Mexico. Shear has dropped below 10 knots and is expected to remain below 10 knots for the next four days. As long as Ike is not over Cuba, it has favorable conditions for intensification. Once Ike passes Cuba and enters the Gulf of Mexico, the intensification potential remains high, as shear is predicted to be below 15 knots, and the waters are hot.

[gatorcane]

well Ike is giving the NHC a rough time needless to say...didn't they mention in the 11AM discussion models had stopped shifting south? Guess not.

Look at this animation of the cone over time....its bent to the NW but the whole cone just keeps shifting west each advisory...I think it has shifted over 800 miles west...or so:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

Come on...the CONE shifts west because the 5 day advisory point shifts west.

We've been over this.

When the track shifts west...so will the cone. IF the track shifts NW...then the BIG circle around the points will also shift NW. Its AUTOMATIC.

the point I am making is that the NHC track has shifted west and west and west.....that 5 day forecast point has gone from the NW Bahamas to the Western GOM in 3 days....

[CourierPR]

The circulation appears to flatten somewhat on the west side.

[Lowpressure]

Now heading slightly south of west again it seems, heading take sit close to the northern most part of east Cuba.

Don't mean to sound harsh, but where are you seeing anything close to south of due west? Loops are very clearly wnw.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

Clearly not WNW anymore...about due west averaged out over the last 2hrs or so, it was going WNW before that though.

I can not see anything clear in that loop, jumps way too much. Every other loop shows a smooth wnw direction.

[Air Force Met]

Now heading slightly south of west again it seems, heading take sit close to the northern most part of east Cuba.

Don't mean to sound harsh, but where are you seeing anything close to south of due west? Loops are very clearly wnw.

Not on the hi-res 1KM. Not anymore.

[fasterdisaster]

It probably doesn't apply in this case, but if the pressure started dropping slowly again and a ring of red, however shallow, is forming wouldn't this normally mean he was past the halfway mark in his ERC?

[shah8]

I can't see the wsw or w motion in that clip easily, KWT.

[KWT]

Lowpressure

The Sat track WSW and is the best sat imagery we've got oiut there probably, it updates far quicker then so called other sat imagery, what are you using?

[gatorcane]

Based on the new NHC forecast points, Ike will have to go due west quite a ways to hit the second forecast point...seems to be passing just north of the first forecast point already:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

[fasterdisaster]

It still looks a tad north of west to me, albeit not as north as before.

[KWT]

Not on the hi-res 1KM. Not anymore.

Gald I'm not the only one who is seeing that its blatently not heading WNW anymore!