ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[txag2005]

Local 12 (KPRC) news here in Houston started the newscast with "FAY, the storm that is going to hit the NE US" of course that was the anchor NOT the weatherman. FB actually made a point to say it was a large cone and he expected it to follow more of a WEST track off W CUBA. But that was speculation at this point. Then they mentioned Katrina due to how it was originally supposed to go into FL and ended up in NOLA. Anyway, just thought I would mention that even here in Houston we are getting coverage even though the general perception on this board by the mets is that there is only a 5% chance. Of course 5% is 5%....

I can't stand Frank Billingsley. I'll never forget how nuts he went during Rita.

[Blown Away]

I'm amazed how confident the NHC is in not dissipating this storm after all the land interaction. They are the experts.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Local 12 (KPRC) news here in Houston started the newscast with "FAY, the storm that is going to hit the NE US" of course that was the anchor NOT the weatherman. FB actually made a point to say it was a large cone and he expected it to follow more of a WEST track off W CUBA. But that was speculation at this point. Then they mentioned Katrina due to how it was originally supposed to go into FL and ended up in NOLA. Anyway, just thought I would mention that even here in Houston we are getting coverage even though the general perception on this board by the mets is that there is only a 5% chance. Of course 5% is 5%....

Billingsley is a radio/TV major who took a 60 hour online course in broadcast met from MSU. Heard of paramedics and paralegals? They are like para-meteorologists. KPRC doesn't even buy their forecasts from AccuWeather anymore.

Gene Norman has an MIT bachelors and a Maryland masters degree in meteorology, and worked at NASA, and when storms are in the Gulf, Dr Neil Frank, formerly of the NHC, comes out of retirement and offers help on and off camera. Stay with KHOU TV 11 when weather is important. IMHO.

Originally from New York, Gene holds a bachelor's degree from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a master's degree in meteorology from the University of Maryland.

[HURAKAN]

RECON going to the north side of Hispaniola. Anyone knows why?

[JonathanBelles]

000
NOUS42 KTBW 160149
PNSTBW
FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-161400-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
949 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008

...ALL PERSONS IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SHOULD
MONITOR THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION...

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER HISPANIOLA HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL
STORM FAY...WHICH CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST.

COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT FAY COULD POSE A THREAT TO SOUTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE IS A VERY
HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA AND APPROACHES CUBA OVER THE
WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ARE ENCOURAGED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THIS
SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THIS IS A GOOD TIME FOR RESIDENTS TO GO OVER THEIR HURRICANE PLANS.
VISITORS TO FLORIDA ARE ENCOURAGED TO READ UP ON INITIAL
PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS THAT MAY NEEDED. THE FOLLOWING ARE BASIC
SUGGESTED ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN AT THIS TIME:

CHECK BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS...DRINKING WATER...CANNED
OR DRIED FOOD...FIRST AID SUPPLIES AND PRESCRIPTION MEDICINE. HAVE A
SUFFICIENT SUPPLY OF CASH AS ACCESS TO CREDIT CARDS AND AUTOMATED
CASH MACHINES MAY NOT BE AVAILABLE WITHOUT POWER. CHECK FUEL LEVELS
ON AUTOMOBILES...GENERATORS AND CHAIN SAWS.

MAKE INITIAL PLANS TO DETERMINE WHERE YOU WILL LIKELY BE IN CASE OF
AN APPROACHING STORM. CHECK WHETHER YOU LIVE IN AN EVACUATION ZONE.

FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING FAY...PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO...AS WELL AS INFORMATION FROM LOCAL GOVERNMENT
OFFICIALS AND MEDIA OUTLETS. YOU CAN ALSO MONITOR THE LATEST
STATEMENTS...AS WELL AS POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS...FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RUSKIN ON THE WEB AT
WEATHER.GOV/TAMPABAY. INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
CAN BE FOUND ON WEATHER.GOV BY CLICKING ON THE HURRICANES LINK.

$$

REYNES/NOAH/MOLLEDA

[LaBreeze]

Could be even less than 5% - probably even less than 5% for anything west of Mississippi.

[Sanibel]

You can just make out the top of the center circle on this shortwave loop. Right on the NHC trop points. Headed right over the highest peaks. There is zero chance this is reforming south of the island:



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

[RL3AO]

Is recon going to cross DR on a pass? Why else would they be at 10,000 feet for a weak storm?

[cheezyWXguy]

You can just make out the top of the center circle on this shortwave loop. Right on the NHC trop points. Headed right over the highest peaks. There is zero chance this is reforming south of the island:



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

wow...based on that loop, it doesnt even have to reform to get to be south of dr. Look at that drop SW!

[Blown Away]

Convection on the NW side is crashing into the mountains and dying off, I think we will see a drastic drop off in deep convection to the S as Fay moves over the big peaks. The mountains could kick the LLC anywhere.

[lbvbl]

what would be the difference in the track if the center did reform south of the island?

[haml8]

Local 12 (KPRC) news here in Houston started the newscast with "FAY, the storm that is going to hit the NE US" of course that was the anchor NOT the weatherman. FB actually made a point to say it was a large cone and he expected it to follow more of a WEST track off W CUBA. But that was speculation at this point. Then they mentioned Katrina due to how it was originally supposed to go into FL and ended up in NOLA. Anyway, just thought I would mention that even here in Houston we are getting coverage even though the general perception on this board by the mets is that there is only a 5% chance. Of course 5% is 5%....

Billingsley is a radio/TV major who took a 60 hour online course in broadcast met from MSU. Heard of paramedics and paralegals? They are like para-meteorologists. KPRC doesn't even buy their forecasts from AccuWeather anymore.

Gene Norman has an MIT and Maryland degree and worked at NASA, and when storms are in the Gulf, Dr Neil Frank, formerly of the NHC, comes out of retirement and offers help on and off camera. Stay with KHOU TV 11 when weather is important. IMHO.

We generally do, I just finished watching the Olympics on DVR, the news broadcast followed it...

In regards to Niel Frank, we always called him the hurrican shield, due to the fact that after Alicia the Galveston/Houston area has been spared, for the most part (Allison gulp), a major hurricane. I worried about him going into retirement that it might entice bad luck this year. It was comforting that he came back (Full shields captain)..

[HURAKAN]

Landfall in the panhandle.

[cheezyWXguy]

Convection on the NW side is crashing into the mountains and dying off, I think we will see a drastic drop off in deep convection to the S as Fay moves over the big peaks. The mountains could kick the LLC anywhere.

Looks like it just kicked the storm on a brief wsw jump.

Anyone have radar loop?

[Ed Mahmoud]

what would be the difference in the track if the center did reform south of the island?

probably means (not definite) a further West landfall, and more time over water, less time over Cuba, to intensify.

[Extremeweatherguy]

You can just make out the top of the center circle on this shortwave loop. Right on the NHC trop points. Headed right over the highest peaks. There is zero chance this is reforming south of the island:



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

I agree. I still think the center is where the NHC says it is.

[Blown Away]

what would be the difference in the track if the center did reform south of the island?

At this point 50 miles of latitude N or S could make a big difference, IMO.

[txag2005]

Local 12 (KPRC) news here in Houston started the newscast with "FAY, the storm that is going to hit the NE US" of course that was the anchor NOT the weatherman. FB actually made a point to say it was a large cone and he expected it to follow more of a WEST track off W CUBA. But that was speculation at this point. Then they mentioned Katrina due to how it was originally supposed to go into FL and ended up in NOLA. Anyway, just thought I would mention that even here in Houston we are getting coverage even though the general perception on this board by the mets is that there is only a 5% chance. Of course 5% is 5%....

Billingsley is a radio/TV major who took a 60 hour online course in broadcast met from MSU. Heard of paramedics and paralegals? They are like para-meteorologists. KPRC doesn't even buy their forecasts from AccuWeather anymore.

Gene Norman has an MIT bachelors and a Maryland masters degree in meteorology, and worked at NASA, and when storms are in the Gulf, Dr Neil Frank, formerly of the NHC, comes out of retirement and offers help on and off camera. Stay with KHOU TV 11 when weather is important. IMHO.

Originally from New York, Gene holds a bachelor's degree from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a master's degree in meteorology from the University of Maryland.

Wasn't Dr. Frank the head of the NHC at one point?

[Sanibel]

Jeesh. I can't help people who don't know how to interpret an obvious satellite loop. You can see the top part of the "eye" emerge in the last frame in the middle of the island and heading west.

We have a cyclone here. Could we do the meteorology resume's some other time?

[cpdaman]

Convection on the NW side is crashing into the mountains and dying off, I think we will see a drastic drop off in deep convection to the S as Fay moves over the big peaks. The mountains could kick the LLC anywhere.

i agree i really don't think there will be a LLcenter in another 6 hours, unless she dives SW now.