Ex Invest 99L in Western Atlantic

[KWT]

Well indeed convection is showing signs of making some sort of comeback but its still very disorganised and clearly still being sheared as well to a big extent. Still the circulation is still going...

[Blown Away]

LLC near 18.3N/42.3W, still due W. May have lost a few miles of latitude overnight:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Building some convection, I don't think 99L is close to a TD at this point, 36 hours IMO:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[KWT]

Yep indeed convection has really flared up in the last 6hrs or so probably in response to the Dmax I'd guess.

[cycloneye]

Latest pic at 7:15 AM EDT:

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I disagree that it is not close to TD. 1# You have a very strong low cloud spin on satellite, that shows that it has a closed LLC at near the surface. In two with convection increasing it is becoming more organized. If it can keep the convection I still believe this has a good chance of becoming something. I also believe it could get to 45 west and it is possible close to 50 before going past 20 north. This thing is of interest.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 021153
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC LOCATED ABOUT ABOUT 1250
MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT
15 TO 20 MPH. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY AND
SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE THE
SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME BUT THE ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR A SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[Ed Mahmoud]

I disagree that it is not close to TD. 1# You have a very strong low cloud spin on satellite, that shows that it has a closed LLC at near the surface. In two with convection increasing it is becoming more organized. If it can keep the convection I still believe this has a good chance of becoming something. I also believe it could get to 45 west and it is possible close to 50 before going past 20 north. This thing is of interest.

After staring intently at first 5 frames of visible, while better looking than yesterday, I am not at all sure there are West winds at the surface. It is moving kind of fast. Shear from the West is also obvious from visible loop.

Better than yesterday, but I don't think it is quite a TD.

[tolakram]

QuikSCAT

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I disagree that it is not close to TD. 1# You have a very strong low cloud spin on satellite, that shows that it has a closed LLC at near the surface. In two with convection increasing it is becoming more organized. If it can keep the convection I still believe this has a good chance of becoming something. I also believe it could get to 45 west and it is possible close to 50 before going past 20 north. This thing is of interest.

After staring intently at first 5 frames of visible, while better looking than yesterday, I am not at all sure there are West winds at the surface. It is moving kind of fast. Shear from the West is also obvious from visible loop.

Better than yesterday, but I don't think it is quite a TD.

I don't believe it's a depression yet. But as the convection increases that should help to strengthen the wind field enough to close off a west wind at the surface. It could be this afternoon.

[boca]

The only area that needs to be concerned about 99L would be Bermuda because once this area develops it will curve around the western flank of the Bermuda high. Its already at 19n too.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Quik-Scat confirms my hunch not quite closed off.

If storms keep firing, maybe. Probably, even. But it is clear from satellite imagery it is facing some serious shear.

Also, water vapor loop indicates less than ideal conditions of mid/upper moisture around it.


If it can overcome that and keep storms going, it should have slow development ahead of it.

I don't see 6Z SHIPS data, but 0Z SHIPS seemed to suggest things get better for this after 48 hours.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I feel after looking at visible it is closer to 80% closed. Maybe a very very sharp wave if it is not closed.


Every degree west it remains below 20 north increases the chances little by little. Bertha made it to around 64 west in was almost this far north at 46-48 west.

[stevetampa33614]

Stairs?

I am protected

[tolakram]

Both areas watch areas visible here.

99L is starting to look convincing.



Same image but with SST's

[boca]

Stairs?

I am protected

I'm protected too I bought accordian shuttters in 2006,which is almost a garrantee I won't get hit by a storm. Unscientific but its the way it works.

[stevetampa33614]

hmm

Next up might be the wave to watch just east of the westernmost tip of Africa and up around 10

it now appears to have a developing surface low along its axis. Expecting an invest this weekend maybe.

[Gustywind]

FXCA62 TJSJ 020919
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
519 AM AST SAT AUG 2 2008

THE NEXT TOPICAL WAVE IS STILL FOR CAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY TUESDAY AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING AN INCREASE MOISTURE AND ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. AS USUAL WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND SEE HOW THIS UNFOLDS...AND MAKE THE NECESSARY FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WITH TIME.
Humm, are they confident on Invest 99L? or this is another wave appearing from nowhere? ??? But it's interesting to note that they 're speaking about "WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND SEE HOW THIS UNFOLDS...AND MAKE THE NECESSARY FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WITH TIME", so let's see what happens during the next 24-48h ....

[stevetampa33614]

Stairs?

I am protected

I'm protected too I bought accordian shuttters in 2006,which is almost a garrantee I won't get hit by a storm. Unscientific but its the way it works.

I went out dumpster diving in 2005 while wilma was still in the carib. I got enough plywood and scrap metal to turn my place into Verdun. And it served well during alberto and Barry. I got my Gas Siphoner, Genny, Ramen, and most importantly I have my Spaaz loaded and locked.

[cycloneye]

Best track at 12:00 UTC from ATCF has winds at 30kts:

AL, 99, 2008080212, , BEST, 0, 187N, 430W, 30, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 45,

[Ed Mahmoud]

I got my Gas Siphoner, Genny, Ramen, and most importantly I have my Spaaz loaded and locked.

I suspect you mean generator, but I always had plenty of Genny in the fridge when I was stationed in upstate New York in the Navy.



When I was stationed in Orlando, Florida 32813, as a poorly paid E-4, my friends and I drank a lot of Old Milwaukee. For low priced beer, Genny was a step up.