ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Discussion

[cycloneye]

This shows that it has not have to be a hurricane that dumps 24 inches in 24 hours a new record in Puerto Rico of that amount in 24 hours.That was in Patillas in SE PR.It has been only a tropical wave.



Sadly,the number of deaths has risen this morning to 4 in relation to this rain event.There are 297 families that are in refuges.

http://www.primerahora.com/noticia/otra ... cal/231811

[Sanibel]

Now veering NW from GFDL track

I think this one will skirt north of Hispaniola unlike Fay.

I don't think the energy involved with this one should be ignored. Sure it is moving very slowly unlike Fay, but it has also produced prodigious amounts of rain in Puerto Rico which is showing you it has energy. The only question is how much the upper allows that energy to develop.

[gatorcane]

again Haiti just doesn't need this thing.....lets hope it misses Haiti but with the current (unexpected) west movement now....I'm not sure Haiti may not see some rain from this.

[Frank2]

Looks like the LLC is about stationary - hopefully the deepening trough along the US EC will pick it up later today or tonight and it'll being to MOV N...

[gatorcane]

Looks like the LLC is about stationary - hopefully the deepening trough along the US EC will pick it up later today or tonight and it'll being to MOV N...

Well Frank that is the hope for sure but at this time that is questionable if you ask me (in fact it was always questionable in my mind if you ask me).....its more like a cutoff low not a trough that is supposed to keep it east of the CONUS.....

[gerrit]

San Juan radar is back on:

[Frank2]

gatorcane,

Guess we'll see what happens - it's already been a problem for PR, for sure...

[gatorcane]

well here is what the GFS 00Z 500MB flow looks like at the moment.

Note the Bermuda High off to the NNE of our invest...looks like just enough of a ridge to maybe push 93L west for a bit....

I'm not sure why the models want to take 93L north so quickly....granted if 93L was deeper I could see a NW or NNW movement but it isn't....

there's a better chance of 93L staying as an open wave and not developing as it moves though Hispaniola if you ask me.

[Sanibel]

This is what I would call a solid trough. (93L still hasn't fully developed yet):

[jinftl]

After PR, Bermuda will need to keep an eye out....not sure what would move this far enough west to threaten anywhere in the u.s. at this point.

This is what I would call a solid trough. (93L still hasn't fully developed yet):

[cycloneye]

Here is the information about the town ( Patillas ) that broke the record of rainfall (24 inches in 24 hours)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patillas,_Puerto_Rico

[gatorcane]

After PR, Bermuda will need to keep an eye out....not sure what would move this far enough west to threaten anywhere in the u.s. at this point.

There is a way. If 93L stays as an open wave...like it is now it would move west or WNW over the next several days.....and not be impacted by the cutoff low...

the low-level flow is pretty strong out of the east where 93L is located.

The key to the forecast from the global models is that 93L develops a low-level center that is deep enough to be influenced by the 500MB flow and the cut-off low. Should that not materialize or the low-level center reforms farther SW along the wave axis...models are going to change.

[wxman57]

Here's the GFS forecast for 3 days from now (18Z Thursday). I plotted the 500mb winds/speeds and 400-700mb mean flow (yellow streamlines). Note the deepening low over the southeast U.S. and increasing west flow across the Gulf, FL, and the Bahamas. Any low-level feature moving toward the Bahamas would run into increasingly strong shear, preventing any development. More likely it'll be turned northward over the next day or two and merge with the nontropical system off the east coast on Friday/Saturday. Might not ever make it to a TD if the shear doesn't let off.

[gatorcane]

Here's the GFS forecast for 3 days from now (18Z Thursday). I plotted the 500mb winds/speeds and 400-700mb mean flow (yellow streamlines). Note the deepening low over the southeast U.S. and increasing west flow across the Gulf, FL, and the Bahamas. Any low-level feature moving toward the Bahamas would run into increasingly strong shear, preventing any development. More likely it'll be turned northward over the next day or two and merge with the nontropical system off the east coast on Friday/Saturday. Might not ever make it to a TD if the shear doesn't let off.

How do you explain the apparent W or WSW movement recently? Can you actually see 93L being that far north in 3 days?

[cycloneye]

[gatorcane]

Take a look at this loop. The big convection is pushing and buildin SW this morning. KIndof reminds me of what Fay did around Hispaniola..wouldn't surprise me if a new "center" tries to form within this deeper convection further south.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[Sanibel]

I'll buy wx57's scenario. I don't see anything threatening that solid trough.

Late season rainer for the islands. We've seen them before like Odette I think it was?

[wxman57]

How do you explain the apparent W or WSW movement recently? Can you actually see 93L being that far north in 3 days?

Low level winds near the disturbance (925mb) are out of the east at 30-40 kts - not exactly a favorable low-level environment for development. The map I posted is valid 3 days from now when the upper low is deepening. Models show about 40-60 kt westerly winds aloft ripping across Florida and the Bahamas by Thursday. If any low-level feature moves west, it'll remain just scattered thunderstorms. No tropical development. The only chance for development is if it tracks north and the relative shear drops off briefly. Doesn't look like we'll see a TD today out of this, but Haiti may well be in for more rain.

[gatorcane]

How do you explain the apparent W or WSW movement recently? Can you actually see 93L being that far north in 3 days?

Low level winds near the disturbance (925mb) are out of the east at 30-40 kts - not exactly a favorable low-level environment for development. The map I posted is valid 3 days from now when the upper low is deepening. Models show about 40-60 kt westerly winds aloft ripping across Florida and the Bahamas by Thursday. If any low-level feature moves west, it'll remain just scattered thunderstorms. No tropical development. The only chance for development is if it tracks north and the relative shear drops off briefly. Doesn't look like we'll see a TD today out of this, but Haiti may well be in for more rain.

Well that makes sense, as usual thanks for the excellent analysis. I'm leaning more on no development in the short-term for 93L......

[HURAKAN]