ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[lbvbl]

on my local news station in addition to all of the models that take it where NHC is predicting, there were 3 models that either took it up central FL or SE FL, but i am unable to find them online on sites such as weather underground. I dont remember the names of the models unfortunately, but has anyone else seen these? I would assume that they are not the most reliable...

[Wx_Warrior]

Go to the models thread...We have you covered!

[Ed Mahmoud]

But pronouncements from on high about things being certain, an 'eye' on a tropical storm, and the 'eye' being obvious, well, I wouldn't make them. Yo digo.

I defy you to explain what exactly makes that center you acknowledge "old"?

Because it is losing convection, and deep convection, tops at times near -80ºC are forming over water to the Southwest of it (which would not be a function of orographic uplift), and the 'old center' has barely reached the highest terrain yet.


Why the combative attitude? I don't get all surly with people who see things differently than I do.

I would not be wildy surpised if the 'old' center remains the primary center. But I'd also be not surprised at all, with peaks to near the 700 mb level, if a new center formed under the most vigorous convection.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I believe it is very close to the Nhc's track, but the mountains are starting to force the system to become broader. More or less convection is forming near the "oceans" or over water. While the LLC is moving down or close to the nhc track. In another 6 hours this system could be very much weaker; it would not suprize me if it took a day or two to redevelop a innercore after this.

[SouthFloridawx]

Well... I'm not exactly sure where the Center of the system is, but as per NHC 11PM Discussion we can safely assume it is somewhere on this Island. However... I think we can all safely assume that there is no "eye".

"WE KNOW THAT THE CENTER OF FAY IS SOMEWHERE OVER HISPANIOLA..."



Just kiddin around by the way.

For right now... my best guess would be in the circle area below.

[Ivanhater]

But pronouncements from on high about things being certain, an 'eye' on a tropical storm, and the 'eye' being obvious, well, I wouldn't make them. Yo digo.

I defy you to explain what exactly makes that center you acknowledge "old"?

Because it is losing convection, and deep convection, tops at times near -80ºC are forming over water to the Southwest of it (which would not be a function of orographic uplift), and the 'old center' has barely reached the highest terrain yet.


Why the combative attitude? I don't get all surlyhuffy with people who see things differently than I do.

I would not be wildy surpised if the 'old' center remains the primary center. But I'd also be not surprised at all, with peaks to near the 700 mb level, if a new center formed under the most vigorous convection.

Ah Ed, it gets like this every season about this time..just have to pick your battles in here

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Well... I'm not exactly sure where the Center of the system is, but as per NHC 11PM Discussion we can safely assume it is somewhere on this Island. However... I think we can all safely assume that there is no "eye".

"WE KNOW THAT THE CENTER OF FAY IS SOMEWHERE OVER HISPANIOLA..."



Just kiddin around by the way.

For right now... my best guess would be in the circle area below.

I agree its in the smaller cirlce. Still moving westward, also you can see another MLC forming on the northern side of Hati,DR with another to the southern part of the island. The LLC is just south of the middle of that.

[Sanibel]

IMO the satellite shows a system centered on the NHC trop points and track. Pressure guided. I think the SW motion is illusion caused by island interaction. My frustration is that the satellite loops show this and people don't see it and speculate reformations that aren't happening.

A little more to the right South Florida.

[txag2005]

IMO the satellite shows a system centered on the NHC trop points and track. Pressure guided. I think the SW motion is illusion caused by island interaction. My frustration is that the satellite loops show this and people don't see it and speculate reformations that aren't happening.

A little more to the right Matt.

There's no need to get huffy. There are many amateurs in here who are learning, and of course solid professional mets to keep everyone in check.

[Ed Mahmoud]

IMO the satellite shows a system centered on the NHC trop points and track. Pressure guided. I think the SW motion is illusion caused by island interaction. My frustration is that the satellite loops show this and people don't see it and speculate reformations that aren't happening.

A little more to the right Matt.

Um, the center that is losing all deep convection may, in fact, remain the primary center.

But why are you so convinced that there is absolutely no chance a new center will form closer/under the most vigorous convection? I "defy' you to explain your certainty that reformation absolutely won't happen. That thunderstorms with cloud tops colder than -70ºC might not just do a better job evacuating air from the surface than thunderstorms over the old center with tops struggling to reach -40ºC.

[SouthFloridawx]

Well one thing is for sure.. we'll know in a couple of hours if it is farther south... recon is on the way.

[lrak]

I'll say it again, the satellite IR loop looks like something slid down the southern border of hati and the dominican republic and is emerging into the caribbean

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[cheezyWXguy]

remember people...while on land, the dmin is at night. In addition, land interaction is obvious. This isnt supposed to be perfect, and convection is weakening as expected. There is no eye, just warming clouds. It really doesnt matter right now, because the llc will not dissipate tonight, unless its reforming. The reason is, is that there is not enough of a condensed inner core for the mountains to interact with and open up. It remains a broad, weak ts, and will remain that until it moves offshore. Reformation is possible, but also, so is keeping the current llc. It just needs to be watched.

[Blown Away]

Can someone circle the 'eye' they think they see?

[img][/img]

The dark area above the forecast point.

[Steve]

>>Jeesh. I can't help people who don't know how to interpret an obvious satellite loop.

Been watching them on the PC since I was hitting a Slidell FTP site for storms in the late 80's/early 90's and I can't say I've ever actually been able to interpret IR. I don't consider myself a novice and doubt that you do either. I trust in surface observations, recon, visible satellite, and occasionally radar. But when it comes to infrared, forget it. Too many times I thought I saw something that ended up being an illusion. I'm not disputing what you are saying about the center of circulation however.

>>More or less convection is forming near the "oceans" or over water.

That's a good point Matt and a redemption for you . A lot of times even when a system is just offshore (or even on land), the bulk of the heaviest storms are over the coastal waters. That's probably the case here, but at the same time, there was some extreme convection on the SE Coast of Haiti blowing up that is probably resulting in some loss of life. While I pretty much agree with Sanibel about the main circulation being on the island, the blob to its southwest can't be totally ignored yet. If it dies down later and new convection fires up wherever the in-land center emerges, then it was dominant. If it gets tugged the other way, who knows?

Steve

[Bocadude85]

Anyone remember Irene back in 1999.. I know the syptonic setup is different but just remember how it was supposed to ride up the west coast of Florida but ended riding up the east coast.. just thought I would point out that nothing is written in stone and unexpected things can happen.

[lrak]

you just have to feel it steve

[Sanibel]

I "defy' you to explain your certainty that reformation absolutely won't happen

Because anti-poleward is against physics. Of course it could reform south under that convection, but I feel since it still shows a strong center on the NHC track that it won't do that and is being guided by a pressure ridge pretty solidly.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well one thing is for sure.. we'll know in a couple of hours if it is farther south... recon is on the way.

I'm not convinced it will reform further South. I have a hunch it may, following the strongest thunderstorms, but I won't make absolute predictions at night on a system over land that doesn't have an actual eye. The NHC being the trained experts, it may indeed follow the old ragged center and never jump centers.


I'm just saying it could. But I won't whine about 'my frustration' with people who don't think the same way I do about it.

[lrak]

what if it went on the other side of the mountain range lol