ATL: IKE Discussion

[fasterdisaster]

I could be wrong but it looks like he's trying to finish his ERC right as he makes landfall? He definitely looks a lot better and IMO I think he should be Cat 4 at 8 PM when paired with the dropsonde.

[cheezyWXguy]

Hell on Earth.

Wow that erc went fast, apparently...even on an out-of-focus satellite image like that, you can see that the tiny old eye is on the very western side of the new, larger eye.

[fasterdisaster]

Also it looks like he's moving north of west again.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

[fasterdisaster]

This could be worse news cheesywxguy since like we saw with storms like Katrina he will be doing his very best to maintain intensity inland as he finishes the ERC.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Just noticed Lowell's forecasted track in EPAC - wonder if that could eventually have some influence on Ike's movement?

I saw that earlier and wondered the same thing myself. Seems that what happens to Lowell would transfer east a few days later.

[Derek Ortt]

Wao!

The outtereye is covering a much much larger area then the inner eye would of covered, so a much larger area is getting slamed. But on the other hand this storm is going to make landfall with its shield down more or less. This storm could of not choosen a worst time to go through a EWRC. This thing will weaken very fast over land now.

would you mind explaining the dynamics behind your post, Matt? The fact that this is going through an EWRC now is not going to weaken it faster. If you examined the recon data from this evening, it was clear that Ike is intensifying

if anything, this may weaken Ike elss, as it has already become broad and will be able to pull in moisture from the Straits and Carib

[Brent]

HURRICANE IKE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
950 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

...IKE MAKES LANDFALL IN EASTERN CUBA...

THE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE MADE LANDFALL ON THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN
CUBA IN THE PROVINCE OF HOLGUIN...NEAR PUNTO DE SAMA AROUND 0945 PM
EDT...0145 UTC. MAXIMUM WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 125
MPH...205 KM/HR.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

[fasterdisaster]

HURRICANE IKE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
950 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

...IKE MAKES LANDFALL IN EASTERN CUBA...

THE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE MADE LANDFALL ON THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN
CUBA IN THE PROVINCE OF HOLGUIN...NEAR PUNTO DE SAMA AROUND 0945 PM
EDT...0145 UTC. MAXIMUM WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 125
MPH...205 KM/HR.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

That's a bit low on the intensity IMNPO.

[fasterdisaster]

He's also not going to move inland for another 4 hours so I don't see him weakening until then.

[MBryant]

Why wouldn't Ike weaken with half it's circulation over land?

[robbielyn]

Also it looks like he's moving north of west again.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

absolutely not at the beginning of the loop he is a wnw wobble but toward the end he was going straight west into cuba

[fasterdisaster]

Why wouldn't Ike weaken with half it's circulation over land?

Because his eye will still be over water and he's finishing his ERC so he will be trying to strengthen. He probably won't strengthen but I think he'll maintain intensity.

[wxman57]

He's also not going to move inland for another 4 hours so I don't see him weakening until then.

NHC just put out a special statement saying Ike has made landfall. The surface center is near the southwest side of the eye on satellite.

[robbielyn]

He's also not going to move inland for another 4 hours so I don't see him weakening until then.

he already made landfall so what do you mean? he's going to hang on the coast for a while?

[wxman57]

00Z plots. Pretty good consensus on Matagorda Bay to mid LA coast:

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like he is right on the NHC track!

[DESTRUCTION5]

00Z plots. Pretty good consensus on Matagorda Bay to mid LA coast:

Whats in the gulf? Imaginary Water counties?

[Sanibel]

Best structured core we've seen landfall this year. Looks like the eye was contracting upon landfall which probably means an intensification surge on landfall.

High pressure guided the storm without any attempt to stay over water. These powerful storms are too big and strongly structured to try to stay over water.

Good thing it didn't do this 300 miles or so north. Bad thing for Holguin that it did where it did.

[fasterdisaster]

He's also not going to move inland for another 4 hours so I don't see him weakening until then.

NHC just put out a special statement saying Ike has made landfall. The surface center is near the southwest side of the eye on satellite.

Are you sure it's there because I think that image is from over half an hour ago and radar doesn't show that. I also think he's moving a tad north of west right now so that will stop him from moving inland IMO.

[carversteve]

Ok..i gotta ask...how in the world can Ike survive a trip through all of cuba and come back to hit the gulf coast as a hurricane?? Will he or could he just dissipate over cuba? Look what happened to Gustav with just a little land interaction.(No bashing please...just curious)