ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Discussion

#501 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 22, 2008 10:54 am

Hurakan, we may need to look a bit further south than your pic shows above for a new "center" forming:

#502 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 22, 2008 10:58 am

#503 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 22, 2008 11:00 am

well I don't know about you guys, BUT I see a narrow ridge elongating NE to SW to the NW of 93L. I do believe that is why 93L is not moving North and convection is building SW..

What do you think? Do you see the orange building SW north of 93L in this loop?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

None of the models forecasted such a ridge.

You can also see this ridge here but its black in this loop:

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

Frank2 · #504 Postby **Frank2** » Mon Sep 22, 2008 11:07 am

On the contrary there seems to be a weak ULL north of 93L, so, it might be pushing the wave south as the it encounters the west side of the ULL, but, should move north once the it encounters the southerly wind on the east side of the ULL - if 93L hasn't moved further west by then...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

P.S. Yesterday at this time 93L looked like Kyle, but, today it looks more like Kale (a land version of seeweed) - it also looks like another one of JB's red herrings...

Can't you tell it's lunchtime...

LOL

#505 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 22, 2008 11:26 am

When I look at this vis loop, I see the old LLC stripped of convection moving West about ready to get pulverized over the NE shores of Hispanolia

and I see a very concentrated area of convection maintaining further south around 16N and 67W moving WSW or W...I'm looking for a new center there.

Should one form further south, I'm curious how the global models will respond.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

#506 Postby **Blown Away** » Mon Sep 22, 2008 11:27 am

gatorcane wrote:well I don't know about you guys, BUT I see a narrow ridge elongating NE to SW to the NW of 93L. I do believe that is why 93L is not moving North and convection is building SW..

What do you think? Do you see the orange building SW north of 93L in this loop?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

None of the models forecasted such a ridge.

You can also see this ridge here but its black in this loop:

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

I've been watching the deep convection move slowly SW this morning. I'm starting to think if the center does not reform to the SW then I have doubts 93L will ever become a TD.

Frank2 · #507 Postby **Frank2** » Mon Sep 22, 2008 11:30 am

I think everyone will be very happy at this point if it just poofs out, for sure...

Frank

#508 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 22, 2008 11:35 am

Plane on the runway. We have RECON!

Sanibel · #509 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Sep 22, 2008 12:02 pm

Most of the depth of this system is in convergence along the southern wave axis. I don't think there's any SW movement or any reformation to the south. I see a weak, sheared LLC skirting along the north coast of Hispaniola. If the shear slacks there's plenty of energy to form a cyclone, but Wx57 says the shear scenario isn't favorable.

#510 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Sep 22, 2008 12:17 pm

Perhaps the approaching tropical wave is having an effect?

Arghhh! I don't want this going to Hispaniola, bad enough what's happening in PR!!! I find myself engaged in true BLOB-WATCHING, a thankless occupation of time! (i.e. "Is there a spin?" "Where is the center?" "Is there a low?" "Which way is it moving?", etc.)

#511 Postby **Steve** » Mon Sep 22, 2008 12:50 pm

>>P.S. Yesterday at this time 93L looked like Kyle, but, today it looks more like Kale (a land version of seeweed) - it also looks like another one of JB's red herrings...

LMAO. But Frank2, speaking of red herrings, when you expect 93L to either dissipate entirely or turn out to sea?

Steve

#512 Postby **jlauderdal** » Mon Sep 22, 2008 12:55 pm

Steve wrote:>>P.S. Yesterday at this time 93L looked like Kyle, but, today it looks more like Kale (a land version of seeweed) - it also looks like another one of JB's red herrings...

LMAO. But Frank2, speaking of red herrings, when you expect 93L to either dissipate entirely or turn out to sea?

Steve

how long until the ridge builds back in :lol:

i thought i was a little quick to change my avatar to kyle rote but i was getting board pressure yesterday morning so i pulled the trigger, in the future no kyle before its time

#513 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 22, 2008 12:57 pm

000
ABNT20 KNHC 221756
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF
HISPANIOLA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
EXTREME EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. AND
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO HAVE
BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
POORLY ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AWAY FROM
HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM AND PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
OFFICES. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE
INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM SHORTLY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN

#514 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 22, 2008 1:01 pm

Downgrade to code orange.

no mention of a center relocation farther south.....yet

#515 Postby **Blown Away** » Mon Sep 22, 2008 1:14 pm

I can see the circulation near the E tip of Hispanola. Seems that big blob of deep convection to the S is slowly detaching itself from the circulation and I expect that convection to slowly die off if there is no circulation center relocation to the S.

vacanechaser · #516 Postby **vacanechaser** » Mon Sep 22, 2008 1:18 pm

anyone looked at radar...?? i see the low level center wher nhc says it is.. but a small tight vigerous spin is due south of ponce!! look for yourselves.. this could be redeveloping under what appears to be a mid level circulation... not saying it will, could.... pretty vigerous little spin there

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11111111&loop=yes

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Frank2 · #517 Postby **Frank2** » Mon Sep 22, 2008 1:20 pm

Steve,

Too early to say if it'll dissipate, however, the conditions are becoming less and less favorable as we get closer to October (more shear and troughs, but, less of a ridge than just two or three weeks ago) - per the chilly temps up north the past few days, it's looking like an early or seasonally "on-time" end to the hurricane season this year, thankfully...

Even if 93L does form into something significant, the EC trough is certainly strong enough to keep it offshore, for sure (pardon the "sounds like" double entendre)...

#518 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 22, 2008 1:21 pm

You can see that circulation Jesse is talking about.In other words,more problems for us.

#519 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 22, 2008 1:37 pm

Looks like the LLC is moving west over Hispaniola now....if that is what is verified chances of development are low in the short-term

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

BensonTCwatcher · #520 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Mon Sep 22, 2008 1:40 pm

ehhhh still disorganized not seeing much in the way of cylone here if ever. Rain and blustery conditions are enough for PR and Hisp. though.

ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Discussion

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