ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Weatherfreak14]

yes it seems to be a tad ahead of schedule, maybe by about couple of hours.




Check ur PM derek.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Maybe it's because the center could have reformed?????

[Shockwave]

that doesn't look to be it either, look at hurrakan's loop

I seen hurrakan's loop too and I can't find the center of circulaton anywhere. Talk about a frustrating system.

[JPmia]

Nice to hear that from you Derek!

[MiamiensisWx]

Cuban radar strongly suggests the center has reformed off southwestern Haiti (lower right hand corner of loop). Note the convective "band" just south of SW Haiti. Movement appears to be nearly due west.

http://www.insmet.cu/Radar/06Gran%20Piedra/gpdMAXw01a.gif

Note that Port-au-Prince, Haiti is reporting corrobating east winds.

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findwe...uSelect=WEATHER

Note that Fay has become elongated overnight, courtesy of land interaction and its toll on the TC. Note that the original LLC (near the NHC position and track) appears to be progressively weaker if you monitor the low level cloud movements on visible imagery. Simultaneously, convection propagation is continuing, as additional thunderstorms develop in the region of best ascent and UL divergence farther SW off Haiti. Currently, there is very little convection over the "old" LLC, while additional convection is developing off SW Haiti.

Everything is favoring the significant SW relocation.

[NDG]

Cuban radar and 1km vis loop agrees better with my estimated position of 18.8N & 73.5W

[Emmett_Brown]

Maybe it's because the center could have reformed?????

Well, NHC said they were pretty uncertain about the exact position while over Haiti, so might just appear to be going faster to us. Sometimes in the past i have noticed storms "jumping" back over water when near the coast. I guess we have to remember this is barely a TS, so the center is not really well defined anyway. Might slow as it tries to wrap up.

[Aquawind]

If Fay misses Cuba all together and stays mostly on water, there's not a good path to go by. It would be bad all the way around.

I don't think ther is much chance at all it will miss Cuba. However if it goes far enough west it will have flatter terrain to cross and much less impact on the structure..not good. Then it will also have much more time over water pre and post Cuba.

Ok, I was miss placing the LLC. Sorry. If Fay moves westward, is the the biggest concern for the NHC mets as well as us weather fanactics? Or is there another senerio that could be worse? Other then my proposal of Fay missing Cuba all together.

Missing Cuba or just simply over water longer would lead to a stronger system most likely. However if the ridging was that much stronger and kept it westward and over water if may bring in other factors like speed and shear. Only to turn into a serious major as it turns into the GOM. As is.. nothing suggest such and the NHC track is probably pretty close for the next 3 days.

[carversteve]

Excellent Loop: http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

By the looks of this radar...it seems that there is a burst of convection to the sw of the center..is that right or not?

[MiamiensisWx]

Cuban radar strongly suggests the center has reformed off southwestern Haiti (lower right hand corner of loop). Note the convective "band" just south of SW Haiti. Movement appears to be nearly due west.

http://www.insmet.cu/Radar/06Gran%20Piedra/gpdMAXw01a.gif

Note that Port-au-Prince, Haiti is reporting corrobating east winds.

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findwe...uSelect=WEATHER

Note that Fay has become elongated overnight, courtesy of land interaction and its toll on the TC. Note that the original LLC (near the NHC position and track) appears to be progressively weaker if you monitor the low level cloud movements on visible imagery. Simultaneously, convection propagation is continuing, as additional thunderstorms develop in the region of best ascent and UL divergence farther SW off Haiti. Currently, there is very little convection over the "old" LLC, while additional convection is developing off SW Haiti.

Everything is favoring the significant SW relocation.

Does anyone also concur?

[cpdaman]

Cuban radar strongly suggests the center has reformed off southwestern Haiti (lower right hand corner of loop). Note the convective "band" just south of SW Haiti. Movement appears to be nearly due west.

http://www.insmet.cu/Radar/06Gran%20Piedra/gpdMAXw01a.gif

Note that Port-au-Prince, Haiti is reporting corrobating east winds.

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findwe...uSelect=WEATHER

Note that Fay has become elongated overnight, courtesy of land interaction and its toll on the TC. Note that the original LLC (near the NHC position and track) appears to be progressively weaker if you monitor the low level cloud movements on visible imagery. Simultaneously, convection propagation is continuing, as additional thunderstorms develop in the region of best ascent and UL divergence farther SW off Haiti. Currently, there is very little convection over the "old" LLC, while additional convection is developing off SW Haiti.

Everything is favoring the significant SW relocation.

Does anyone also concur?

what's the opposite of concur lol i disagree for now , old center is still the 1 imo

btw does a center relocation to the SW show better potential to match your earlier forecast intensity

[tolakram]

click for visible:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=white

animated version:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=white

[Chacor]

The opposite of concurrence is disagreement.

The Fay prediction challenge is open for one more hour:
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=102527

[txwatcher91]

Cuban radar strongly suggests the center has reformed off southwestern Haiti (lower right hand corner of loop). Note the convective "band" just south of SW Haiti. Movement appears to be nearly due west.

http://www.insmet.cu/Radar/06Gran%20Piedra/gpdMAXw01a.gif

Note that Port-au-Prince, Haiti is reporting corrobating east winds.

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findwe...uSelect=WEATHER

Note that Fay has become elongated overnight, courtesy of land interaction and its toll on the TC. Note that the original LLC (near the NHC position and track) appears to be progressively weaker if you monitor the low level cloud movements on visible imagery. Simultaneously, convection propagation is continuing, as additional thunderstorms develop in the region of best ascent and UL divergence farther SW off Haiti. Currently, there is very little convection over the "old" LLC, while additional convection is developing off SW Haiti.

Everything is favoring the significant SW relocation.

Does anyone also concur?

I am not sure, but think that when it clear Haiti and the Southern inflow is not as disrupted you will see those storms move north, of course the center could be reforming, but cuban radar indicates that the center is slighly west of the island, not sure of the island name though.

[Extremeweatherguy]

If I were to place a center on this thing based on radar, I would place it near the "X" in the following image...



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aquawind]

Cuban radar strongly suggests the center has reformed off southwestern Haiti (lower right hand corner of loop). Note the convective "band" just south of SW Haiti. Movement appears to be nearly due west.

http://www.insmet.cu/Radar/06Gran%20Piedra/gpdMAXw01a.gif

Note that Port-au-Prince, Haiti is reporting corrobating east winds.

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findwe...uSelect=WEATHER

Note that Fay has become elongated overnight, courtesy of land interaction and its toll on the TC. Note that the original LLC (near the NHC position and track) appears to be progressively weaker if you monitor the low level cloud movements on visible imagery. Simultaneously, convection propagation is continuing, as additional thunderstorms develop in the region of best ascent and UL divergence farther SW off Haiti. Currently, there is very little convection over the "old" LLC, while additional convection is developing off SW Haiti.

Everything is favoring the significant SW relocation.

Does anyone also concur?

I see what your looking at..just not sure it's actually completed a relocation. I am intersted to see where the convection starts popping to the north again.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Cuban radar strongly suggests the center has reformed off southwestern Haiti (lower right hand corner of loop). Note the convective "band" just south of SW Haiti. Movement appears to be nearly due west.

http://www.insmet.cu/Radar/06Gran%20Piedra/gpdMAXw01a.gif

Note that Port-au-Prince, Haiti is reporting corrobating east winds.

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findwe...uSelect=WEATHER

Note that Fay has become elongated overnight, courtesy of land interaction and its toll on the TC. Note that the original LLC (near the NHC position and track) appears to be progressively weaker if you monitor the low level cloud movements on visible imagery. Simultaneously, convection propagation is continuing, as additional thunderstorms develop in the region of best ascent and UL divergence farther SW off Haiti. Currently, there is very little convection over the "old" LLC, while additional convection is developing off SW Haiti.

Everything is favoring the significant SW relocation.

Does anyone also concur?

I think its difuse and still north of that south penn..Not sure of the name of it..

[NDG]

Cuban radar strongly suggests the center has reformed off southwestern Haiti (lower right hand corner of loop). Note the convective "band" just south of SW Haiti. Movement appears to be nearly due west.

http://www.insmet.cu/Radar/06Gran%20Piedra/gpdMAXw01a.gif

Note that Port-au-Prince, Haiti is reporting corrobating east winds.

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findwe...uSelect=WEATHER

Note that Fay has become elongated overnight, courtesy of land interaction and its toll on the TC. Note that the original LLC (near the NHC position and track) appears to be progressively weaker if you monitor the low level cloud movements on visible imagery. Simultaneously, convection propagation is continuing, as additional thunderstorms develop in the region of best ascent and UL divergence farther SW off Haiti. Currently, there is very little convection over the "old" LLC, while additional convection is developing off SW Haiti.

Everything is favoring the significant SW relocation.

Does anyone also concur?

I am not sure, but think that when it clear Haiti and the Southern inflow is not as disrupted you will see those storms move north, of course the center could be reforming, but cuban radar indicates that the center is slighly west of the island, not sure of the island name though.

Island name:

Ile de la Gonave

[canetracker]

Cuban radar strongly suggests the center has reformed off southwestern Haiti (lower right hand corner of loop). Note the convective "band" just south of SW Haiti. Movement appears to be nearly due west.

http://www.insmet.cu/Radar/06Gran%20Piedra/gpdMAXw01a.gif

Note that Port-au-Prince, Haiti is reporting corrobating east winds.

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findwe...uSelect=WEATHER

Note that Fay has become elongated overnight, courtesy of land interaction and its toll on the TC. Note that the original LLC (near the NHC position and track) appears to be progressively weaker if you monitor the low level cloud movements on visible imagery. Simultaneously, convection propagation is continuing, as additional thunderstorms develop in the region of best ascent and UL divergence farther SW off Haiti. Currently, there is very little convection over the "old" LLC, while additional convection is developing off SW Haiti.

Everything is favoring the significant SW relocation.

Does anyone also concur?

I agree with you that we could be seeing a center relocation and have been watching this area since the wee hours of the morning. Once Recon gets in we shoud be able to confirm whether or not this is happening. For now, I can't argue with the evidence you have presented.

[deltadog03]

If I were to place a center on this thing based on radar, I would place it near the "X" in the following image...



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Thats about where I would put it...System right now is very eastern heavy...(Which is too be expected right now, due to land)