ATL: IKE Discussion

[tailgater]

Here is for the caribbean

Thanks guys I found the one I was looking for that loops.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/go.html

[mpic]

Okay, I know this is really far fetched, but do you suppose somewhere in the future we can send in a plane to "seed" storms to make them steer to uninhabited places? Or give ridges a B-12 shot to keep them strong and another shot to weaken them to steer these things?

[Meso]

The eye is starting to fill in now from the latest radar image (which can be expected) though still looks good, though Ike continues straight on west, quite well south of the forecast (which predicted a WNW movement starting almost right after landfall)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Thanks for the PM, Matt!!

You made things sooo much more clear!! I swear, when it's late like this, I tend to get even more "rattleheaded" than usual! Of course, it doesn't take much for my half of a brain cell to get confused!

So, any ideas as to when Ike is going to start heading in a more wnw direction or is it really possible that he may continue to trek all of the way across Cuba and visit the Carribean?

~Nik~

Still following my earlier thinking on radar. At this rate it will likely be off in 6-8 hours. Also, radar shows a wobble to the south near 260 degree's the last few frames. The Gfdl shown a west-southwest or south of due west motion in its last run...So around 8-12 hours from now based on model data, we can expect a turn to the north of due west. But of course that could change.

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/weather/09/0 ... index.html

death toll already up to 73

[physicx07]

Ike might be able to make it out to the Caribbean before he turns wnw.

I think he might also...

You shouldn't do hot links with cuba radar loops.
Please, change link by this one:
http://img222.imageshack.us/img222/3614 ... 01atf8.gif

Why? I just want to know because I linked it on another site so don't want to cause any problems over there.

[littlevince]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 080900
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

CUBAN RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF IKE CONTINUES
MOVING WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL CUBA. THE EYE IS STILL VISIBLE BUT
THE EYEWALL IS NOW ENTIRELY OVER LAND AND ITS STRUCTURE HAS DEGRADED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 90
KT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGAIN SHOWS LESS WEAKENING OVER LAND
THAN INDICATED BY THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...IN THE EVENT THAT THE
CENTER EMERGES OVER WATER SOONER THAN FORECAST. IF IKE FOLLOWS THE
FORECAST TRACK IT WILL BE OVER LAND FOR ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND WOULD
ALMOST SURELY BE WEAKER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF THAN SHOWN HERE.
NEVERTHELESS...THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
CONDUCIVE TO RESTRENGTHENING WITH A VERY DIFLUENT LIGHT SHEAR UPPER
WIND PATTERN AND WARM WATERS BELOW. THE MAJOR UNKNOWN IS HOW
DISRUPTED IKE WILL BE WHEN IT EMERGES.

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. IKE'S
TRAJECTORY IS EXPECTED TO BEND GRADUALLY TO THE RIGHT AS THE STORM
NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72
HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN CALLING FOR A SHARP
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES ON DAYS 4-5.
THE GFDL AND HWRF...WHICH USE THE GFS FOR BOUNDARY CONDITIONS...MAY
BE PICKING UP ON THAT AND SHOW A BEND TO THE RIGHT AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...SUCH AS THE
ECMWF...SHOW MUCH MORE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT
THOSE RANGES AND HAVE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. EVEN THOUGH THE GFDL
HAS PERFORMED VERY WELL WITH IKE SO FAR...I'VE CHOSEN NOT TO ADJUST
THE TRACK EASTWARD GIVEN THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FIELDS IN THE GFS
HAVE NO SUPPORT FROM THE OTHER MODELS. IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO
KNOW WHAT PORTION OF THE GULF COAST WILL ULTIMATELY BE AFFECTED BY
IKE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0900Z 21.2N 77.3W 90 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 08/1800Z 21.6N 79.0W 75 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 09/0600Z 22.4N 81.2W 65 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 09/1800Z 23.1N 83.0W 60 KT...EMERGING INTO GULF
48HR VT 10/0600Z 23.9N 84.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 11/0600Z 25.5N 87.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 12/0600Z 27.0N 90.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 13/0600Z 28.5N 93.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0900.shtml

[TampaFl]

5:00am position:

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Okay, I know this is really far fetched, but do you suppose somewhere in the future we can send in a plane to "seed" storms to make them steer to uninhabited places? Or give ridges a B-12 shot to keep them strong and another shot to weaken them to steer these things?

I just got Disney's Tomorrowland series on DVD and one of the films is called, "Eyes in the sky". In that film, which originally came out in the '50's, they highlight a weather station of the future where they can control weather patterns! They even show them "seeding" the storms of 2 low pressure systems in order to squeeze-play a high pressure system in order to change the course of a hurricane! They also show them shooting "vapor rockets" at the hurricane to induce forward momentum! It's absolutely hysterical but, it's also a very entertaining compilation of films!

I highly recommend it to anyone who has a love for science. It's really cool to see what the folks in the 1950's thought that the future would be like.

[littlevince]

Why? I just want to know because I linked it on another site so don't want to cause any problems over there.

Hotlinking is always a bad practice, but it's worse when you eat bandwidth of a server that display radar pictures crucial for life threat situations, specially in country's with less resources than rich nations.

[fasterdisaster]

Okay, I know this is really far fetched, but do you suppose somewhere in the future we can send in a plane to "seed" storms to make them steer to uninhabited places? Or give ridges a B-12 shot to keep them strong and another shot to weaken them to steer these things?

I just got Disney's Tomorrowland series on DVD and one of the films is called, "Eyes in the sky". In that film, which originally came out in the '50's, they highlight a weather station of the future where they can control weather patterns! They even show them "seeding" the storms of 2 low pressure systems in order to squeeze-play a high pressure system in order to change the course of a hurricane! They also show them shooting "vapor rockets" at the hurricane to induce forward momentum! It's absolutely hysterical but, it's also a very enertaining compilation of films!

I highly recommend it to anyone who has a love for science. It's really cool to see what the folks in the 1950's thought that the future would be like.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_stormfury

[wxman57]

wxman57 wrote:
00Z plots. Pretty good consensus on Matagorda Bay to mid LA coast:

I'm right curious about the two-letter coded blocks in the GOM shown red-lined in the 00Z plot map.

I've never seen those before. What the heck do they represent??

Been bouncing back and forth between web pages and see that this question has been answered previously.

Also noticed that sinced I was last browsing here that we're now right in the bullseye in H-town. All my tanks and generators are still full from Gustav preparations. We're A.J. squared away from the last alert, and if it hits hard inland
all I've got to do is load up, lock the door and skedadel.

See my explanation post on page 246. They're offshore oil lease regions. Inside each region is hundreds of oil lease blocks. There are about 40,000 people working out there. Oil companies use them to identify where they're working.

[mpic]

Okay, I know this is really far fetched, but do you suppose somewhere in the future we can send in a plane to "seed" storms to make them steer to uninhabited places? Or give ridges a B-12 shot to keep them strong and another shot to weaken them to steer these things?

I just got Disney's Tomorrowland series on DVD and one of the films is called, "Eyes in the sky". In that film, which originally came out in the '50's, they highlight a weather station of the future where they can control weather patterns! They even show them "seeding" the storms of 2 low pressure systems in order to squeeze-play a high pressure system in order to change the course of a hurricane! They also show them shooting "vapor rockets" at the hurricane to induce forward momentum! It's absolutely hysterical but, it's also a very enertaining compilation of films!

I highly recommend it to anyone who has a love for science. It's really cool to see what the folks in the 1950's thought that the future would be like.

Maybe I should go to work for Disney?

Back to Ike. Guess I'll have to have a talk with the boss today about starting my vacation on Wednesday, then. I'm glad Gustav waited so I didn't have to take it for him. Not trusting Houston's "awesome" evac plans.

[TampaFl]

With this steering flow aloft, IMHO Ike looks like he will continue on a westerly course. I know this will change over time.

[littlevince]

Center fix and updated track

[DJJordan]

wxman57 wrote:
00Z plots. Pretty good consensus on Matagorda Bay to mid LA coast:

I'm right curious about the two-letter coded blocks in the GOM shown red-lined in the 00Z plot map.

I've never seen those before. What the heck do they represent??

Been bouncing back and forth between web pages and see that this question has been answered previously.

Also noticed that sinced I was last browsing here that we're now right in the bullseye in H-town. All my tanks and generators are still full from Gustav preparations. We're A.J. squared away from the last alert, and if it hits hard inland
all I've got to do is load up, lock the door and skedadel.

See my explanation post on page 246. They're offshore oil lease regions. Inside each region is hundreds of oil lease blocks. There are about 40,000 people working out there. Oil companies use them to identify where they're working.

wxman .... how much confidence do you have in that prediction??

[KWT]

Looks like Ike is a little to the south of the forecasted track on the radar fix anyway. Looks like it will breifly get into the Caribbean but not for long enough to make a difference.

Still looking good in the Gulf for some decent redevelopment again once the inner core is sorted out so its very long track overland, which will ruin it, I see the NHC finally show a tropical storm when it emerges.

[caneman]

Man if Ike keeps booking West he'll be back over water soon.

[DJJordan]

Man if Ike keeps booking West he'll be back over water soon.

There's part of me that keeps thinking Ike is looking for water accroding to the IR Satellite loop. Of course it could be a wobble.

[KWT]

Even if it now keeps the NHC track it does getinto the CAribbean waters, granted only for about an hour!

The longer it can stay heading west the more chance of making the Caribbean though I do expect north of west motion to happen sooner rather then later.

The other thing to note is IF it follows the NHC track ,they expect it to be weaker then the 60kts they forecasted, I still think 45-50kts would be more likely if the NHC track happened with a real messed up core.