H Dolly Recon Discussion Thread

[Thunder44]

They didn't find stronger wind in the SE. It seems like the strongest winds have now shifted to the North Quads.

[KWT]

Yeah that seems likely Thunder, I think if there is hurricane force winds right now with Dolly they are going to be in the NWE quadrant, I want to see another pass through that quadrant again.

[Aric Dunn]

185230 2438N 09518W 6959 03064 9968 +071 +060 029065 067 056 014 00

[Aric Dunn]

whats quads did they just fly through.. not the NE ..

[Thunder44]

whats quads did they just fly through.. not the NE ..

That was the first quad they flew through.

[Aric Dunn]

whats quads did they just fly through.. not the NE ..

That was the first quad they flew through.

ok . i just got back .. but what quads were they

[Aric Dunn]

wonder why they kept the old max flight level winds.. from 2 hours ago.. ??

[CrazyC83]

wonder why they kept the old max flight level winds.. from 2 hours ago.. ??

The 67 kt FL winds was after the VDM was taken. 71 kt is probably needed for Hurricane Dolly (or 64 kt SFMR).

[Aric Dunn]

wonder why they kept the old max flight level winds.. from 2 hours ago.. ??

The 67 kt FL winds was after the VDM was taken. 71 kt is probably needed for Hurricane Dolly (or 64 kt SFMR).

agreed on the 71kt area.. and yeah guess so on the taken after part.. but a lot of times though they have inbound and outbound

so what quads did they fly through

[KWT]

I think the next recon mission will be very interesitng in that I think we will see the NE quadrant finally have high enough winds. By the way when does the next mission head in?

[Aric Dunn]

"
P. AF307 1604A DOLLY OB 08 CCA
MAX FL WIND 68 KT NW QUAD 18:52:30 Z
SFC CNTR 130 / 10NM FROM FL CNTR
MAX FL TEMP 14 C 128 / 11NM FROM FL CNTR"

thats better its just did not make sense why they did not update it

[KWT]

True Aric its getting closer to reaching the winds eeded, 68kts is not all that far away.
Also that does seem to auggest the center isn't quite stacked still?

[hsvwx]

True Aric its getting closer to reaching the winds eeded, 68kts is not all that far away.
Also that does seem to auggest the center isn't quite stacked still?

Pretty interesting that the max temp is that far away from the FL center, definitely would indicate that Dolly needs to organize more in order for any significant strengthening to occur!

[CrazyC83]

68 kt FL = 61 kt at the surface. Just 3 kt away but not there yet. I'd still go with 60 kt at the advisory on current data.

[KWT]

Yep probably explains why it isn;t bombing away right now, sounds like the center is tilted by 10 NM according to recon!

[KWT]

Recon now taking a SW-NE pass, if the system has strengthened then we may well see hurricane force winds in the NE quadrant so this is an important pass for Dolly.

[CrazyC83]

48 kt SFMR found in the SW quad (54 kt found flagged).

[KWT]

Looks like the next set will show the SW eeyewall pass and quite possibly the central pressure as well so will be a very interesting pass to see where Dlly is at presently.

[CrazyC83]

65 kt SFMR found SW quad - first data to support a hurricane, but let's wait for the FL winds in the NE.

[RL3AO]

985mb and the MLC and LLC look stacked.