ATL: PALOMA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

Derek Ortt · #521 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 1:36 am

strongest winds remain in NW quad. These MAY remain just away from the little Cayman island,s but is too close to call

Just Joshing You · #522 Postby **Just Joshing You** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 1:45 am

08/0545 UTC 19.3N 80.5W T6.5/6.5 PALOMA

Just Joshing You · #523 Postby **Just Joshing You** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 1:47 am

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
08/0545 UTC 19.3N 80.5W T6.5/6.5 PALOMA
07/2345 UTC 18.8N 81.0W T6.0/6.0 PALOMA
07/1745 UTC 18.4N 81.4W T4.5/4.5 PALOMA

2 T-numbers in 10 hours, and 2.5 in 24 hours.

Crostorm · #524 Postby **Crostorm** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 2:21 am

Just Joshing You · #525 Postby **Just Joshing You** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 2:43 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 NOV 2008 Time : 064500 UTC
Lat : 19:19:24 N Lon : 80:23:06 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.6 / 933.7mb/129.6kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.6 6.8 6.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.5mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +13.0C Cloud Region Temp : -70.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

Cyclenall · #526 Postby **Cyclenall** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 2:51 am

No surprise with Paloma's RI cycle. The loop of it during the past 6 hours is a tad bit unusual I must say. The eye was almost perfect in only one frame and the rest it's wobbling and rough.

Hurricanewatcher2007 · #527 Postby **Hurricanewatcher2007** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 2:53 am

Max winds 122kts SouthWest quad 946.6mb pressure

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #528 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 3:00 am

Hurricanewatcher2007 wrote:Max winds 122kts SouthWest quad 946.6mb pressure

Cat4. Yes, I do deserve to eat socks right about now.

Nexus · #529 Postby **Nexus** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 3:28 am

Chacor · #530 Postby **Chacor** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 3:46 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:
Hurricanewatcher2007 wrote:Max winds 122kts SouthWest quad 946.6mb pressure

Cat4. Yes, I do deserve to eat socks right about now.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.

NHC appears to disagree, interestingly.

#531 Postby **TCmet** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 3:47 am

winds increased to 110kts, but still category 3 at 4am.

REPEATING THE 400 AM EST POSITION...19.5 N...80.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB.

Crostorm · #532 Postby **Crostorm** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 4:12 am

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 NOV 2008 Time : 081500 UTC
Lat : 19:24:00 N Lon : 80:08:20 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 930.9mb/132.2kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.7 6.7 6.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.5mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : +14.0C Cloud Region Temp : -69.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

vegastar · #533 Postby **vegastar** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 4:44 am

093030 1921N 07955W 6963 02853 9687 +111 +050 216127 133 102 005 03

093230 1927N 08000W 6972 02692 9451 +193 +050 221016 023 033 008 03

133kts flight level, 945mb extrapolated. WOW!

Crostorm · #534 Postby **Crostorm** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 4:48 am

vegastar wrote:093030 1921N 07955W 6963 02853 9687 +111 +050 216127 133 102 005 03

093230 1927N 08000W 6972 02692 9451 +193 +050 221016 023 033 008 03

133kts flight level, 945mb extrapolated. WOW!

superfly · #535 Postby **superfly** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 4:53 am

We'll probably see an upgrade to 115 or 120kts at 7 am.

#536 Postby **AJC3** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 5:09 am

WTNT62 KNHC 081009
TCUAT2

HURRICANE PALOMA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
508 AM EST SAT NOV 08 2008

SHORTLY BEFORE 500 AM EST...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN HURRICANE
PALOMA HAVE INCREASED TO 135 MPH...215 KM/HR. PALOMA IS NOW AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.

DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/BRENNAN

Crostorm · #537 Postby **Crostorm** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 5:10 am

Sanibel · #538 Postby **Sanibel** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 5:12 am

Bulls eye on Cayman Brac at 135mph category 4. Left eyewall on Little Cayman. Maximum potential reached?

#539 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 5:18 am

vegastar wrote:133kts flight level, 945mb extrapolated. WOW!

The measurement from the eye dropsonde was only 950hPa just as before however.

Sanibel · #540 Postby **Sanibel** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 5:53 am

Right wobble over Cayman Brac:

ATL: PALOMA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

Re: ATL: PALOMA - Hurricane - Discussion

Re: ATL: PALOMA - Hurricane - Discussion

Re: ATL: PALOMA - Hurricane - Discussion

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Re: ATL: PALOMA - Hurricane - Discussion

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