ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[jasons2k]

People are being fooled because of the convection building to thw west. This storm is not moving W..

Correct-a-mundo. The system as a whole is moving to the WNW or NW.

It looks like the LLC was closer to the coast earlier and has tucked under the MLC. It also looks like the MLC may have rotated some to the W or SW as it merged with the LLC, giving the impression (illusion) that the system is moving west. But it's not - it is just temporary. As the system "gels" I expect it to be easier to track via satellite.

The next 24 hours will be critical and I do not think the track on this one is clear-cut. Still too many variables which is typical with GOM systems.

The entire TX coast needs to pay very close attention to this one with the obvious focus now being Brownsville to Corpus.

[Cat5x]

Is Dolly going to slow down, she seems to be racing to the wnw, they said it should slow down but she would have to put some serious breaks on.

[HouTXmetro]

I would not let my guard down in the SW coastal areas of Metropolitan Houston just yet. Models continue to trend north this morning. 12z nam is showing a middle TX coastal strike which would put the SW counties such as Brazoria, Fort Bend and Matagorda in some rough weather. I know this isn't Rita but we all know what happened when she was suppose to hit Brownsville.

[Sjones]

My thoughts exactly! All models were showing brownsville, and we saw where it ended up at.

[Category 5]

I would not let my guard down in the SW coastal areas of Metropolitan Houston just yet. Models continue to trend north this morning. 12z nam is showing a middle TX coastal strike which would put the SW counties such as Brazoria, Fort Bend and Matagorda in some rough weather. I know this isn't Rita but we all know what happened when she was suppose to hit Brownsville.

I wouldn't let my guard down especially since this is a large system and areas well away from the landfall point could be affected.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
Appears to be slightly north of the forecast points right now.

[Wx_Warrior]

The moon, stars, etc....The center is founded. Models consensus a Tx Coast strike. We are within 3 days now, probably 2 now with a projected Wed landfall. With the size of ol' Dolly (perfect name for this BIG storm), we could feel winds and some bands here in SETX.

[americanrebel]

I'm glad I'm not the first one to bring up Rita, I have been thinking that since early yesterday.

[oyster_reef]

Marine forcast for Mid Tx coast for Wednesday

SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER IN AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. HIGHEST SEAS BUILDING TO 28 FT.

This is assuming TS force winds.

[jabman98]

I would not let my guard down in the SW coastal areas of Metropolitan Houston just yet. Models continue to trend north this morning. 12z nam is showing a middle TX coastal strike which would put the SW counties such as Brazoria, Fort Bend and Matagorda in some rough weather. I know this isn't Rita but we all know what happened when she was suppose to hit Brownsville.

No matter where it hits, even as far south as Mexico, the areas north (and east) will be on the dirty side of the storm. So everyone along the TX coast needs to be prepared. It's so easy to get hynotized by the eye and forget the larger implications. I think we'll start seeing a bit of minor moisture even tomorrow.

[gatorcane]

Look at the impressive area of convection:

[TexWx]

Ok so I'm going crazy now?
This is not west?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Wx_Warrior]

I've never seen a storm more properly named!!!

[LAwxrgal]

Yep and because she's a big storm, we can't just pick a point on a map. At this rate looks like the entire Texas coast will be affected by some... adverse... weather conditions.

[Kludge]

People are being fooled because of the convection building to thw west. This storm is not moving W..

Correct-a-mundo. The system as a whole is moving to the WNW or NW.

It looks like the LLC was closer to the coast earlier and has tucked under the MLC. It also looks like the MLC may have rotated some to the W or SW as it merged with the LLC, giving the impression (illusion) that the system is moving west. But it's not - it is just temporary. As the system "gels" I expect it to be easier to track via satellite.

The next 24 hours will be critical and I do not think the track on this one is clear-cut. Still too many variables which is typical with GOM systems.

The entire TX coast needs to pay very close attention to this one with the obvious focus now being Brownsville to Corpus.

The models (and hence the NHC) must be anticipating that as the storm intensifies it will tend to want to move more north...which will cause it to butt heads with the ridge... and the slow down will then occur. That's when things could get dicey, in terms of final landfall position and strength. Lot's of pressure on the NHC with this one...I wouldn't want to be in there shoes this week.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Ok so I'm going crazy now?
This is not west?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I am not being fooled, as I am staring at rotation center, which matched well with last VDM, and it is within a few degrees of due West. Unless this turns more Northwest-ward in a hurry, this will hit more than just a little South of the Mexico border. IMHO.

[gatorcane]

seems like the most impressive convection is being left behind across the NW Caribbean and Southern/SE GOM. Convection in the Western side of Dolly seems to be weakening somewhat. What does everybody think about that?

[TexWx]

thank you.

[freport_texas21]

12z models..from dan meador at khou @ houston

http://www.khou.com/weather/dan_meador/ ... 21_12z.jpg
_________________

[funster]

Ok so I'm going crazy now?
This is not west?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I am not being fooled, as I am staring at rotation center, which matched well with last VDM, and it is within a few degrees of due West. Unless this turns more Northwest-ward in a hurry, this will hit more than just a little South of the Mexico border. IMHO.

It could Ed - the cone goes pretty far on either side of the border.