ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[weatherguru18]

In the last few frames of that visible, it appears to pull more NW.

[cheezyWXguy]

BTW, dont think about the strongest convection being on the eastern side...I know someone posted about it earlier, and it doesnt really matter. Over the past few hours it has gone from looking like it would soon be its own entity to becoming more of a banding-type feature. This will likely be absorbed into the system shortly, if it is not doing so now. Reds already beginning to pop on the sw side.

[dwg71]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

seems very unorganized and does not seem to be strengthening. Cloud tops are warming near the llc.

[O Town]

So many of you are quibbling over a move a tad west or WNW, slgiht etc....

Classic wobble watching has now begun in earnest.

Bottom line is that if you live on the Texas coast you are in the firing line of potentially a strong hurricane. I would suggest ignoring the wobbles, listening to the NHC and Local Officials and following their guidance and that of the Pro Mets that post here and on the Tropical Analysis Forum.

Stop trying to play "gotcha" and prove how smart you think you are by trying to find mistakes in, or disprove; what you are officially being told.

The NHC knows what it is doing as do the Pro Mets here!

[stormy1970al]

So many of you are quibbling over a move a tad west or WNW, slgiht etc....

Classic wobble watching has now begun in earnest.

Bottom line is that if you live on the Texas coast you are in the firing line of potentially a strong hurricane. I would suggest ignoring the wobbles, listening to the NHC and Local Officials and following their guidance and that of the Pro Mets that post here and on the Tropical Analysis Forum.

Stop trying to play "gotcha" and prove how smart you think you are by trying to find mistakes in, or disprove; what you are officially being told.

The NHC knows what it is doing as do the Pro Mets here!

I think you stated it well in this post. Dolly is going to hit someone on the Gulf Coast. Be prepare and listen to the local mets, nhc, and our wonderful pro mets here that give us their time and keep us updated on what is going on.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

seems very unorganized and does not seem to be strengthening. Cloud tops are warming near the llc.

The cloud tops are warming a bit, but she now has a very evident llc compared to last night. She's over very warm water and if she's not strenthening now, she'll definitly strengthen soon.

[Frank2]

It seems the impressive cloud pattern is still at the mid-levels, since the recon is not finding very strong winds at this time...

[Steve]

>>In the last few frames of that visible, it appears to pull more NW.

Well the other thing on that end is that the center is swirling around in the larger center of circulation which you can kind of see if you zoom in fairly close. So it's going to give those appearances as well depending on where it is within the developing center at large. That's the way things work sometimes in the developmental stages. Ultimately, fci is right. I'm just glad this isn't turning into a FL vs. Texas wobble war, the kind of wobble wars we have seen over and over and over and over again. This is pretty much set in stone (IMHO) and it's a matter of nuancing the end-game at this point. Unless something was to happen down the road (stall, etc.), then it's a Texas or northern Mexico issue probably within 200-300 miles of coastline. Again, JMO.

Steve

[weatherguru18]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

seems very unorganized and does not seem to be strengthening. Cloud tops are warming near the llc.

The cloud tops are warming a bit, but she now has a very evident llc compared to last night. She's over very warm water and if she's not strenthening now, she'll definitly strengthen soon.

I think she's running out of time quickly...but that's just me. And before everybody on here goes off on a tangent about how wrong I am, I'm well aware that this thing has the potential to deepen rapidly. But with warming tops as just indicated and a fast forward speed, I don't think she'll make it much past a 75mph hurricane. Not to mention the circulation is very broad...doesn't appear to be very tight. We'll see.

[Frank2]

Let's not forget the disclaimer if some here are going to start making their own predictions on where it will go - let's not start our own version of rumor control...

[weatherguru18]

Kennedy County. That's my final answer, Regis.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I could be wrong, I see about a 0.2 to 0.3º gain in latitude for a full degree of longitude in last three and a half hours.

Assuming degrees of latitude and longitude are close to equal at this latitude, I just find the anti-tangent of about 0.25 as the number of degrees North of due West.


Thank goodness for Excel. 14 degrees North of due West by my rough and dirty eyballing, or 284º Between West and West-Northwest.


Not trying to make anyone, especially the NHC, look bad.

My eyeballs are not officially calibrated.

[Steve]

>>But with warming tops as just indicated and a fast forward speed, I don't think she'll make it much past a 75mph hurricane. Not to mention the circulation is very broad...doesn't appear to be very tight. We'll see.

Maybe, maybe not. Look at the center on visible though. It's certainly getting more organized.

>>Let's not forget the disclaimer if some here are going to start making their own predictions on where it will go - let's not start our own version of rumor control...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Clear enough at the top of the page. I'm still not sure if you work for dynomat and are minister of web information for actions being taken behind a secret veil.

Steve

[Ed Mahmoud]

I could be wrong, I see about a 0.2 to 0.3º gain in latitude for a full degree of longitude in last three and a half hours.

Assuming degrees of latitude and longitude are close to equal at this latitude, I just find the anti-tangent of about 0.25 as the number of degrees North of due West.


Thank goodness for Excel. 14 degrees North of due West by my rough and dirty eyballing, or 284º Between West and West-Northwest.


Not trying to make anyone, especially the NHC, look bad.

My eyeballs are not officially calibrated.

I will say, anyone who lives in or adjacent to the NHC recommended watches would be foolish not to be preparing for this storm. Bad weather looks like it will impact land for several hundred miles North of the landfall point.

[KatDaddy]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Still looks to be headed NW toward the W Central GOM. Regardless of a S TX landfall it looks like much of the TX Coast will get TS force squalls. The is growing into a huge tropical cyclone

[Ivanhater]

Dont focus on the line folks..This storm is going to be huge...Impacts could be felt to Louisiana...

[dwg71]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

100 miles north of tampico, strong TS or minimal cat 1. Just my amateur interpretation.

[funster]

Dont focus on the line folks..This storm is going to be huge...Impacts could be felt to Louisiana...

Wow - what a monster

[ColdFusion]

seems very unorganized and does not seem to be strengthening. Cloud tops are warming near the llc.

Seems pretty darn organized to me for a Tropical Storm.

[HouTXmetro]

Take a look at the High clouds and flow off the TX coast and inland on this vis loop. They are moving SW to NE. According to the NHC overlay the High positioned just South of the TX/LA border this morning has shifted to just beneath the Florida Big Bend. That's A big shift East. So my question is the High protecting the upper TX/LA coast weaker and breaking down faster than forecaseted? Or are things going as scheduled?

Will Dolly's large circulation have an effect on the strength of the Ridge?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html