ATL: IKE Discussion

[KWT]

jeff linder says nearly all models show this increasing in size(from land interaction) to becoming a hurricane taking up nearly the entire gulf of mexico........


although i wonder if more limited land interaction (than models originally thought) may lessen the projected size

Thats a good point, though its still going to interact with land again on the western side of Cuba probably for a fair time even if it does take an extended track west it should lift up and come back overland, thats where most models show it expanding.

[cpdaman]

Tropical storm force winds have expanded to 200 miles from the center, with the furthest reach in the NE quadrant as of 5am update. That is up from 140 miles from the center yesterday. That additional 60 miles could mean that even on a track that stays west of key west, south fl may see ts gusts at least in scattered squalls.

We are already getting the winds your mention below....I don't think Ike has made its closest approach to Sfl yet...and i say that knowing the 'closest approach' may be 200+ miles away.


NWS Miami wind oberv at 10am Monday:

W PALM BEACH E21
FT LAUDER-EXEC NE21G29
FT LAUDERDALE E20G26
POMPANO BEACH E21G30
PEMBROKE PINES E22G31
OPA LOCKA NE22
MIAMI E17G26
WEST KENDALL E20G26
HOMESTEAD NE17G29

I don't think mainland S FL will get more than 20 to 30 mph winds and little rain due to substanence around the storm.I don't see us getting 2 to 4 " of rain like they were predicting.I think when the NWS made their forecast Ike would have been moving WNW across the spine of Cuba, not going into the Caribbean on a due west heading. If I were in Cozamel, MX I'd pay attention to Ike.

alot of this is from the pressure gradient producted between ike and the high pressure to the north east of florida

[Storm Contractor]

I think the Yucatan like I've said earlier will be dealing with Ike.

Not that it matters with my lack of knowledge but I have been looking at the steering and thinking at least near the yucatan before a trof finally does pick it up and then bring it North somewhere. It just does not have a place to turn up into right now.

[Nexus]

Starting to sound like a broken record, but Ike is still hugging 21N, like he has for 30 hours now aside from a few wobbles. Unless he starts the WNW, like now, he'll be spending a lot of time over the Caribbean - in fact Yucatan Channel passage isn't even out of the question if he keeps this up, which would destroy all the intensity forecasts.

Regardless, it appears he'll be over water quite soon.

[MGC]

Ike's mad dash for the Carb Sea in not a good thing. Instead of spending 36 hours over land Ike will only spend 14 or so over land. Ike is going to emerge into an area of high ocean heat content and since the core looks fairly intact, Ike should reintensify. The continued west track increases the possiblilty of a west La landfall, maybe even Texas......MGC

[haml8]

Monday AM update from Jeff Lidner(not that Masters guy).
Sorry, if already posted by another member. I don't have the time to look back through page after page.

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=102965&p=1818035#p1818035

Thanks for the link!

Geeze, one case of misidentity and you are making me pay for it aren't you

[tallywx]

The other thing I'm seeing on the sat.imagery is the dry area that was present does seem to be filling in slowly.

anyway now we'll see whether Ike can re-stabalise its inner core again and build it back up to some degree.

The other question is just how far west can Ike go before it eventually lifts out north of west?

Here's a closeup of the inner core convection blowing up along the outer eyewall...

If that outer eyewall becomes the dominant feature, would that still be categorized as an "inner core"? Wouldn't that produce an area 60-70 miles in diameter with light winds - meaning it would lack an inner core? How is that any different from Wilma/Jeanne/Frances, storms that also lacked "inner cores" with calm areas that large?

[ConvergenceZone]

Yikes this is not good news. Well, most of the models show it in the water south of carib anyway, but as others have said here, that means that it may hold it's own, or perhaps slightly strengthen if it gets further away from land, before it goes into Texas or LA.....I don't think it effects the eventual landfall, as it's really just following the southern most models which still pull it northwest into the gulf....

[jinftl]

So if Ike has not made his absolute closest approach (straight line 'as the bird flies' measurement from center)...wouldn't the gradient even get a bit tighter...maybe, dare i say, eeking out a ts gust or 2 at that time in a rogue squall?

Tropical storm force winds have expanded to 200 miles from the center, with the furthest reach in the NE quadrant as of 5am update. That is up from 140 miles from the center yesterday. That additional 60 miles could mean that even on a track that stays west of key west, south fl may see ts gusts at least in scattered squalls.

We are already getting the winds your mention below....I don't think Ike has made its closest approach to Sfl yet...and i say that knowing the 'closest approach' may be 200+ miles away.


NWS Miami wind oberv at 10am Monday:

W PALM BEACH E21
FT LAUDER-EXEC NE21G29
FT LAUDERDALE E20G26
POMPANO BEACH E21G30
PEMBROKE PINES E22G31
OPA LOCKA NE22
MIAMI E17G26
WEST KENDALL E20G26
HOMESTEAD NE17G29

I don't think mainland S FL will get more than 20 to 30 mph winds and little rain due to substanence around the storm.I don't see us getting 2 to 4 " of rain like they were predicting.I think when the NWS made their forecast Ike would have been moving WNW across the spine of Cuba, not going into the Caribbean on a due west heading. If I were in Cozamel, MX I'd pay attention to Ike.

alot of this is from the pressure gradient producted between ike and the high pressure to the north east of florida

[pablolopez26]

Do what you gotta do. Obviously we had plenty of progresso soup, chips, nuts, water, cookies, etc., but all that gets harder to come by as the days get closer. And I'm sure I don't have to tell you how bad Houston traffic is on a good day. Imagine a bunch of crazed people panicing because they can't find what they need. Ugly. Do what you can tonight, and if you don't need that stuff, you can always use it later. That way you can be cracking a cold one when everyone else is hustling to cover their ***.

Steve

I agree, id rather go out today and buy what i need, than wait until Friday when the whole of a city could be in a panic. I remember when Rita was coming, its just so amazing to see just how humans can be in time of an emergency. Quite scary.

I know this, if this storm continues on its projected course and reaches Galveston. There will be mass evacuations of Galveston and coastal cities. I for one will be visiting my local Walmart today to get some water and canned foods.

[Stormcenter]

jeff linder says nearly all models show this increasing in size(from land interaction) to becoming a hurricane taking up nearly the entire gulf of mexico........


although i wonder if more limited land interaction (than models originally thought) may lessen the projected size

Sorry but I don't buy into this taking up the "entire" GOM idea just yet. IMO
I have to see it to believe it.

[ConvergenceZone]

jeff linder says nearly all models show this increasing in size(from land interaction) to becoming a hurricane taking up nearly the entire gulf of mexico........


although i wonder if more limited land interaction (than models originally thought) may lessen the projected size

Sorry but I don't buy into this taking up the "entire" GOM idea just yet. IMO
I have to see it to believe it.

Storm, I don't think it's had enough land interaction to have that happen. That would only happen had it stayed over cuba and the windfield would have been allowed to grow, but now that it may spend most of the time just south of Cuba, that probably won't happen.

[BigB0882]

What does this further south movement mean for its track? I am thinking two scenarios. The first is that it shifts landfall further west. That seems obvious but then I got to thinking. Does this also delay landfall and by how much? Does that give the trough more time to come down and pick this thing up? I've read where the trough isn't expected to have an impact on Ike until AFTER landfall but that's assuming this makes landfall when planned.

[rtd2]

jeff linder says nearly all models show this increasing in size(from land interaction) to becoming a hurricane taking up nearly the entire gulf of mexico........


although i wonder if more limited land interaction (than models originally thought) may lessen the projected size

Sorry but I don't buy into this taking up the "entire" GOM idea just yet. IMO
I have to see it to believe it.

agreed NOTHING mentioned in offcial forecast.

[njweather]

jeff linder says nearly all models show this increasing in size(from land interaction) to becoming a hurricane taking up nearly the entire gulf of mexico........


although i wonder if more limited land interaction (than models originally thought) may lessen the projected size

Sorry but I don't buy into this taking up the "entire" GOM idea just yet. IMO
I have to see it to believe it.

For what it's worth, Derek Ortt also agrees with Linder in his latest forecast:

The passage over Cuba will also have the effect of broadening the wind field. Global models and MM5 guidance indicate that the wind field will cover a large part of the Gulf.

[jinftl]

Did they mean that the wind field would take up the entire gulf or just the overall circulation? I agree with you that i don't believe we will see ike in the gulf with hurricane winds 300 miles from the center and ts winds 600 miles from the center....that would be apopalyptic~

jeff linder says nearly all models show this increasing in size(from land interaction) to becoming a hurricane taking up nearly the entire gulf of mexico........


although i wonder if more limited land interaction (than models originally thought) may lessen the projected size

Sorry but I don't buy into this taking up the "entire" GOM idea just yet. IMO
I have to see it to believe it.

[CronkPSU]

Did they mean that the wind field would take up the entire gulf or just the overall circulation? I agree with you that i don't believe we will see ike in the gulf with hurricane winds 300 miles from the center and ts winds 600 miles from the center....that would be apopalyptic~

jeff linder says nearly all models show this increasing in size(from land interaction) to becoming a hurricane taking up nearly the entire gulf of mexico........


although i wonder if more limited land interaction (than models originally thought) may lessen the projected size

Sorry but I don't buy into this taking up the "entire" GOM idea just yet. IMO
I have to see it to believe it.

oh great, now we know the next subject of "It can happen Tomorrow"

[cpdaman]

jinftl

on TWC they said that the winds above s.fl are very high "very high" and that these winds could/would be pulled down in squalls.

i also wonder how the pressure gradient would change (and thus tweak the wind forecast), should the system be 75 miles further south , yet perhaps maintain a lower pressure (since it would be over land less)

it may depend on wether the high winds above the ground in s.fl were directly due to the forecast proximity of the hurricane, but i would guess the two differences i mentioned would likely result in minimal change in the forecast, regardless

[Sabanic]

What does this further south movement mean for its track? I am thinking two scenarios. The first is that it shifts landfall further west. That seems obvious but then I got to thinking. Does this also delay landfall and by how much? Does that give the trough more time to come down and pick this thing up? I've read where the trough isn't expected to have an impact on Ike until AFTER landfall but that's assuming this makes landfall when planned.

That is what is going to be the tricky part. A good number of the models are now showing a much more northward component late in their runs now while still in the GOM. Timing late this week could make a huge difference in exactly where landfall occurs, and who is on the bad side of Ike.

[pablolopez26]

My wannabe non-official, non important forecast is for this storm to make landfall anywhere from CC all the way up to Tx/La border.

Thats my guesstimate.