ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[wxman57]

New GFDL takes the center just east of Miami now. Trend east continues.

[gatorcane]

convection already going now near the center. Outflow looks good, UL winds look good. I think its ready to pop a huge burst near the center.....look for it in the next several hours. Deep convection SE on the decrease but should be wrapping around the center as time goes on.

Looks like it is organizing to me.

[CrazyC83]

Starting to seem like an Ernesto scenario playing out by going the land route...although if Fay goes TOO FAR east and misses Florida that is not good either.

[tolakram]

This more recent but smaller view

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

Shows the center better and I do see a N/NW. I think I'm getting vertigo.

It looks to be pretty much right on the NHC track, which is no big surprise.

The LLC looks vigorous so I'm wondering why it would remain weak if it stays mostly at sea?

[fci]

Starting to seem like an Ernesto scenario playing out by going the land route...although if Fay goes TOO FAR east and misses Florida that is not good either.

Why is that not good either?

Unless you are thinking that the threat then becomes the Carolinas.
IF Fay went too far east would she not just go out to sea?

[hial2]

Starting to seem like an Ernesto scenario playing out by going the land route...although if Fay goes TOO FAR east and misses Florida that is not good either.

If it misses Florida (and Bahamas and Bermuda), that would be the best news..

[cpdaman]

Watch the visible loop and turn on the tropical forecast points and the Lat/Long's. I think I see the LLC at 19.2N/74.9W, just north of the second forecast point. Looks like a little dark circle. Just an observation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Cuban radar shows it WELL SOUTH of there

This is NOT going to make landfall along the EC of Florida.

perhaps it may? i mean honestly i let my guard down a bit when you said that but NHC says possibly

[Extremeweatherguy]

Fay still appears to be moving due west. I seriously doubt that we will see this storm lift north into Cuba and instantly die. Everyone within the cone of uncertainty still needs to take this situation seriously until told otherwise by the NHC.

[CrazyC83]

Starting to seem like an Ernesto scenario playing out by going the land route...although if Fay goes TOO FAR east and misses Florida that is not good either.

Why is that not good either?

Unless you are thinking that the threat then becomes the Carolinas.
IF Fay went too far east would she not just go out to sea?

The ridge would deflect it into the Carolinas, and the warm water would allow Fay to strengthen much, much more and we would be looking at a major hurricane instead of a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane. (Same if Fay went too far west and missed the peninsula that side)

[Aric Dunn]

the 2pm is at 19.2 74.9

[Extremeweatherguy]

^^Latest Cuban Radar loop^^

[HurricaneHunter914]

If Fay reorganizes her center, RI could most definitly happen. She's under almost perfect conditions (except for the land) and the sst's under her forecasted track are very hot.

[cpdaman]

the 2pm is at 19.2 74.9

derek was closest

[deltadog03]

I see atleast a due west...maybe even a hint of wsw.

[artist]

Channel 7 in SE Fla is doing hourly updates on Fay

of course we don't get channel 7 either. Thanks though. If there is anything important you guys hear would you let us know?

[Aric Dunn]

the 2pm is at 19.2 74.9

derek was closest

lol.... whos keeping track..

[wxman57]

:uarrow: I see atleast a due west...maybe even a hint of wsw.

That does look like a vortex rotating a little south of west, and it probably is the center. But if it is, it's opening up and becoming broad now. It appears less organized now than it was 36 hours ago when recon couldn't find an LLC.

[Recurve]

Channel 7 in SE Fla is doing hourly updates on Fay

of course we don't get channel 7 either. Thanks though. If there is anything important you guys hear would you let us know?

Of course.
If you have web access: http://www.wsvn.com/weather/hurricane/. But storm 2 k is probably all you need.

[wxman57]

Here's a satellite with surface obs plotted. As you can see, not exactly a ferocious wind field around the center. Just 15-20 kts.

[tailgater]

:uarrow: I see atleast a due west...maybe even a hint of wsw.

I think it's a vortex rotating around a broader center somewhere to the SE, but I'm just a gawker.