ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Aric Dunn]

I thought Dolly was suppose to slow down. Is this not the case anymore?

yes she will begin to slow down soon.. as the ridge begins to weaken more later today and over night

[Brent]

The south side still looks very poor convection wise, but it's still close to the Yucatan. I'm not that impressed right now though.

the biggest ball of convection to the NE keeps getting further away as well, i'm waiting to see when the convection along the SW side wraps to the east across the south, because there is no inflow from the south (except for that stream displaced far to the east) looks like someone sliced her right half and seperated it, i don't think she is getting her act together till she SLOWSS down.

Exactly, and I'm starting to wonder if she is going to slow down...

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Recon is getting ready to fly through the center again. last time the pressure was at 1005mb lets see what it is this time!

[wx247]

I'm seeing a cyclone that has a much better spin but due to the sprawling nature of the convection is having a hard time undergoing any kind of rapid intensification at the moment. Dry air is intruding on the SW side of the cyclone which is also helping inhibit any kind of rapid organization.

Movement is on par with NHC guidance and I see no evidence of a turn to the NW yet. If it can just go a bit more W (left) it will be inland over Mexico in less than 24 hours, probably later on tonight.

Based on its current location (and speed) even if it went due west it would take AT LEAST 24 hours for the center to make landfall based on the 1:00 (central time) advisory. Note: This is not what I am forecasting.

By the way, this is just my amateurish opinion... not to be confused with actual classified data.

[RL3AO]

1005.2mb and they haven't hit the center quite yet.

[cycloneye]

1005.2mb and they haven't hit the center quite yet.

Means pressure lower at next set.

[Wx_Warrior]

She'll slow...I just hope people don't jump on the 'she's turning north' bandwagon

[HarlequinBoy]

[Aric Dunn]

1005.2mb and they haven't hit the center quite yet.

Means pressure lower at next set.

should be.. winds were still 17 to 18 kts on that last set .. so next set should see winds drop a little more and pressure down as well. which is not surprising since the structure continues to improve quite fast and is on its way to intensify quite fast here soon

[wx247]

She'll slow...I just hope people don't jump on the 'she's turning north' bandwagon

And I hope people don't jump on the she will be inland later tonight bandwagon.

[cheezyWXguy]

This storm is strengthening now. As of latest visible image, deep convection is filtering into the storm from the east, and a band has completely surrounded the center. lol it looks kinda like an eye, but obviously its not, but with structure improving so rapidly, the center may never be covered before it develops an eye.

[TexWx]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rb.html

still west.
It seems a bit easier to tell if you back away a little.

[wx247]

Once again... you are watching the clouds/expansion on the west side of that loop. The IR tricks your eyes into seeing a completely westward movement that isn't there. You should get in on a floater and look at the visible. You can clearly track the WNW movement of the center that way.

[Swimdude]

1004.0 and still not at the center...

[vbhoutex]

Until Dolly gets rid of all that dry air she is currently ingesting(which I did not notice earlier)she is not going to do anything significant. That is the plain and simple of it!!!

[ColdFusion]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rb.html

still west.
It seems a bit easier to tell if you back away a little.

Just cut it out.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Until Dolly gets rid of all that dry air she is currently ingesting(which I did not notice earlier)she is not going to do anything significant. That is the plain and simple of it!!!

Glad someone agrees..I think we will see the Pro Mets agree here shortly as well..

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rb.html

still west.
It seems a bit easier to tell if you back away a little.

see you should be getting closer and only looking at the center ... while blocking out the rest of the storm

[WmE]

Until Dolly gets rid of all that dry air she is currently ingesting(which I did not notice earlier)she is not going to do anything significant. That is the plain and simple of it!!!

Where do you see dry air?

[gatorcane]

Until Dolly gets rid of all that dry air she is currently ingesting(which I did not notice earlier)she is not going to do anything significant. That is the plain and simple of it!!!

Yes I agree with you there is dry air, contrary to members will argue (and deny) who are cheering Dolly on. Those looking for RI are not going to see that in the near-term, not with all that dry air she is injesting. Personally, she is not impressing me much. Later tonight could be another story though. We'll have to wait and see. Then again she may only reach strong TS status and that is it.

Either way NHC is nailing the forecast again, kudos to them.