H Dolly Recon Discussion Thread

[CrazyC83]

This may be a case that the VDM does NOT come back in time for the 5 pm advisory - in which case it would likely be held as a tropical storm then upgraded to a hurricane in a special advisory around 5:30 pm.

[HURAKAN]

In a normal storm, if you find 65 knots in the SW quadrant, you should expect about 75 knots in the NE quadrant.

[KWT]

Wel lsurface estimates show 65kts in the SW quadrant and its not flagged either it seems, therefore I suspect we are going to see higher winds in the NE quadrant probably enough to support hurricane, indeed it could be argued we have nough already with those surface estimates in the SW side.

Also yep pressure down to 985mbs, so still steadily deepening.

[dixiebreeze]

22/1745 UTC 24.3N 94.9W T4.0/4.0 DOLLY

[RL3AO]

22/1745 UTC 24.3N 94.9W T4.0/4.0 DOLLY

Good timing.

[CrazyC83]

71 kt FL winds found also support calling it a hurricane. 65 kt seems right.

[KWT]

71kt would probably round up at the surface to 65kts so I suspect they will probably upgrade given all the data from recon.

[brunota2003]

It is actually 63.9 knots at the surface, so assuming they'll use the "There is likely stronger winds that were not sampled." hypothesis, they very well might upgrade.

[drezee]

I am curious to why they did not fly through the center? That 71 kts would be from the N quad not NE...

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

They did fly through the center. They found a pressure of 985mb in the center which is a 3mb drop from the last center fix

[Squarethecircle]

It is actually 63.9 knots at the surface, so assuming they'll use the "There is likely stronger winds that were not sampled." hypothesis, they very well might upgrade.

It's so ridiculously close and so ridiculously within the realm of conversion error that the "excuse" is not necessary.

[brunota2003]

It is actually 63.9 knots at the surface, so assuming they'll use the "There is likely stronger winds that were not sampled." hypothesis, they very well might upgrade.

It's so ridiculously close and so ridiculously within the realm of conversion error that the "excuse" is not necessary.

Unless the reduction is closer to .85 (depends on the plane and flight level).

[KWT]

Even if the reduction is 0.85 we've had a surface estimate of 65kts, that will probably be enough to warrent an upgrade.

[Scorpion]

Theres a whole lot of 60+ winds this pass.. I think its safe to say we have a hurricane.

[brunota2003]

But that surface estimate came with flight level winds of also 65 knots...that would mean 100% reduction, if that were the case.

[KWT]

Doesn't really matter to be honest there was explosive convection there and the surface estimate was not flagged so no reason to doubt it to be honest?

Also yep there is a lot of 60kts at flight level on the last set of obs, probably expandin size of the TS size winds.

[Derek Ortt]

why are we hung up on flight level winds when we have SFMR winds that are valid?

[brunota2003]

Like that surface estimate of 71 knots unflagged with a flight level wind of 41 knots?

[Thunder44]

VDM pressure 986mb.

[txwatcher91]

SFC CNTR WITHIN 5NM OF FL CNTR

The earlier VDM had them 10nm apart, now only 5nm apart meaning it is becoming better stacked and that once they stack much quicker pressure falls are likely.