ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

762
NOUS42 KNHC 221400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT FRI 22 AUGUST 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z AUGUST 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-083

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM FAY -- TEAL 71
A. 23/1800Z
B. AFXXX 2806A FAY
C. 23/1630Z
D. 30.1N 85.8W
E. 23/1700Z TO 23/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 14.5N 66.5W AT 24/1800Z.

11. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[Clipper96]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Two spins are visible - a low-level area at 12N, and a mid-level area farther north, which looks like it's getting undercut. The low area should head into the western Caribbean, as its entrained within the deep trades.

[dwg71]

I just dont see too much to get excited about with 94L, or 95L for that matter.

[HURAKAN]

I just dont see too much to get excited about with 94L, or 95L for that matter.

Like most tropical waves, they may look dead but they are dormant, waiting for favorable conditions to become TCs.

[Vortex]

I just dont see too much to get excited about with 94L, or 95L for that matter.

Like most tropical waves, they may look dead but they are dormant, waiting for favorable conditions to become TCs.

Excellent point!

[dwg71]

I just dont see too much to get excited about with 94L, or 95L for that matter.

Like most tropical waves, they may look dead but they are dormant, waiting for favorable conditions to become TCs.

It takes more than favorable conditions. 94L lacks quite a bit from being a TC. 95L seems to be just about toast.

IMO, amateur observation...less than 25% of development for either wave.

[Sanibel]

There's 3 areas of convection between 94L and the old 95L that look to have swirls going - so this is very difficult and I'll wait to see what gells out of them. It could be that the middle one is like the ITCZ energy that pulled up into Dolly.

[Clipper96]

The re-positioned at 17N 95 has a very good circulation already established. I really like the way it "looks"...

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

It's d-min there right now, and over the coolest stretch, so probably nothing until after dark.

[KWT]

Well the region is weakening again as you'd expect given the time of day.

However I think the big blob to the south-east of the region is causing the big issues and is probably taking the main energy from 94L. I'd expect nothing to form from this until that big mass is out of the way.

Out of all the circulations the northern one looks the best but it look a long way from being a depression at the moment, a right old mess!

[Sanibel]

The re-positioned at 17N 95 has a very good circulation already established. I really like the way it "looks"...

99L made the same trip and never convected. We'll see if this latitude has gotten better with the season.

[tanguy97]

Meteo france has just posted a watch for high seas, rains and gusty winds for the islands of Guadeloupe and Martinique beginning tonight till ....... next week and possibility of a tropical depression

[Blown Away]

The re-positioned at 17N 95 has a very good circulation already established. I really like the way it "looks"...

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

It's d-min there right now, and over the coolest stretch, so probably nothing until after dark.

Are you talking about the rotation around 17N/55W?

[Clipper96]

I think the northern end of 94 is an empty suit; a dying mid-level spin with all easterlies at the surface now. Gotta go with 12N being where the action, if any, will be in coming days.

The re-positioned at 17N 95 has a very good circulation already established. I really like the way it "looks"...
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

Are you talking about the rotation around 17N/55W?

No; it was a reference to farther-out 95L as a reply to dwg, who thought little of both 94 and 95 earlier.

[HURAKAN]

No development should be expected before the system moves into the Caribbean. You can already see that the NHC has a RECON mission for 66W on the 24th, indicating that if it develops it will likely be in the central or western Caribbean.

[KWT]

I don't think this is going to form till at least the Caribbean, that big blob is right where the inflow would be and is just going to stop anything from getting going...

The MLC is trying to fire up convection still but it too looks quite weak at the moment.

Man what a mess!

[alienstorm]

We need to look for consolidation in the area from 10 - 12 N and 52 - 55 W, this is where it will start and then develop as it moves into the eastern carribbean.

[KWT]

Thats just a big ITCZ burst, the area to watch according to what I've heard if the region a little further west but I'm doubting anything happens there for a while yet whilst that burst is present.

Saying that I wonder if the ITCZ burst has a chance of developing?

[Sanibel]

What we could be seeing here is 94L pulling that deep ITCZ flare into its center like Dolly did. If that happens we should have a nice Caribbean or north of Caribbean hurricane.

[Gustywind]

Yellow alert has been required for Guadeloupe St Bart and St Marteen and Martinica for strong showers and tstorms in our latest weather forecast by our Pro met of Meteo-France at 11am. . Moreover, and suspiciously they're anticipating an orange alert meaning a strong probabillity of a TD near the islands tommorow. . We should fairly and very closely monitor the situation in the East Carib (Windwards / Leewards/ Northern Leewards).

[AtlanticWind]

We need to look for consolidation in the area from 10 - 12 N and 52 - 55 W, this is where it will start and then develop as it moves into the eastern carribbean.

I see a nice little turn up at 13.9 and 55.0 , this is where to look for formation I would think.