ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[shah8]

Dr. Ort, I think the HWRF *is* the worst case scenario. Nassau is obliterated before the strike on the Greater Miami Area.

What's even worse, is that it is the most *believable* path to me...Gentle curves and responsive to ridges, unlike GFDL or UKMET.

[cycloneye]

I know the Canadian is not the best of the best models,but anyway it shows the trend west.

[srainhoutx]

however, the GFDL solution would give the storm plenty of time to ramp up over the Florida straits

that is the worst case track, as that could split the Peninsula, hammering everyone from the Keys to the metro areas

Looking for another shift left with next Advisory.

[BOPPA]

[quote="Derek Ortt"]however, the GFDL solution would give the storm plenty of time to ramp up over the Florida straits

that is the worst case track, as that could split the Peninsula, hammering everyone from the Keys to the metro areas[/quote

Derek - Know you are busy, but could you explain this a little further - for a layman !!
Even though I am on the SW coast, this now has my undivided attention !!!

Thanks for your time

[Brent]

12Z HWRF ends 908mb just off miami.

Definitely a trend west overall at 12z. Not good for FL.

[jlauderdal]

Even the clear side on Ike would be dangerous, I'm guessing if the UKMO is right we'd be looking at a cat-3/4 which would be really powerful...

absolutely, notice the wink at the end of my post

[ronjon]

12Z GFDL - direct hit on the Keys and S FL (or even SW FL coast) given that its near longitude 80 deg at the end of its run on the north Cuban coast.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008090412-ike09l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Lowpressure]

12Z HWRF ends 908mb just off miami.

Definitely a trend west overall at 12z. Not good for FL.

Ouch, that is truly an attention getter!!

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL,HWRF,UKMET,Canadian,GFS all more west.NOGAPS and EURO are left for this run,so lets see what those have.

[gatorcane]

check out all of the new links NHC added for the sat loops:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

[ronjon]

however, the GFDL solution would give the storm plenty of time to ramp up over the Florida straits

that is the worst case track, as that could split the Peninsula, hammering everyone from the Keys to the metro areas

Looking for another shift left with next Advisory.

12Z GFDL looking very Donna-ish to me.

[jhpigott]

12Z HWRF ends 908mb just off miami.

beautiful - if that verified (granted its 5 days out) that could theorhetically put Mia-Ft.Lauderdale-WPB in the eyewall of a cat 5. Something like that could cause structural failure to highrises/office buildings in 3 major US metropolitan areas, not to mention all the ocean front condos that line the beaches from Miami Beach to Jupiter Island . . . Seriously, my intention is not to hpye, but a track/intensity like that could literally dwarf any hurricane damage we have ever witnessed before

[KWT]

however, the GFDL solution would give the storm plenty of time to ramp up over the Florida straits

that is the worst case track, as that could split the Peninsula, hammering everyone from the Keys to the metro areas

With a ruined inner core?
Its a very bad set-up though to be honest I'm not sure whats worse, the HWRF which has an Amdrew...but further south or the GFDL showing what wouldprobably be a cat-2 maybe 3 going right up through the core of Florida and given possibly a dangerous surge to the Keys.

None of the models thus far looks great...

[cycloneye]

Those who live in South Florida,dont look at this HWRF loop:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Scorpion]

[gatorcane]

Those who live in South Florida,dont look at this HWRF loop:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

can I just peak?

[sweetpea]

however, the GFDL solution would give the storm plenty of time to ramp up over the Florida straits

that is the worst case track, as that could split the Peninsula, hammering everyone from the Keys to the metro areas[/quote

Derek - Know you are busy, but could you explain this a little further - for a layman !!
Even though I am on the SW coast, this now has my undivided attention !!!

Thanks for your time

I was thinking the same thing. How would that effect us? Geez, I really hope the models move east again. That wouldn't be good for the Bahamas or Florida.

[robbielyn]

man it's just now getting interesting and i have to go to work at the hospital. stinks

[El Nino]

Those who live in South Florida,dont look at this HWRF loop:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

No weakening in the short term. I wouldn't disqualify this, but seems very odd ...

[Canelaw99]

Those who live in South Florida,dont look at this HWRF loop:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Not good, VERY not good...ugh....hopefully this is just one of those notorious model flip-flops and it will shift east again...*makes mental hope* models shift east, models shift east...