ATL OMAR: Remnant Low - Discussion

[Sanibel]

Almost assure an east side close pass of St Croix and hard shoulder hit of Anguilla if not hard eyewall hit. I would guess Dog Island is an unpopulated Island from the look of it - but that's ground zero.

Eye behavior might be peak now - might not.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Gustywind]

Double post from: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=103576&hilit=&start=160
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Omar is getting closer to the BVI and the Northern Leewards Islands...

Purple alert for St Marteen meaning that things should deteriorate quickly right now as Omar is approaching dangerously... given the latest weather forecast of our Prom Met of Meteo- France: http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ivi_in.pdf
Swell with 5 meters and higher from Soutwhest and South higher is expected tonight and tommorow.
Whereas sustained winds near 55 kts are anticipated with gustywinds up to 65/82kts...
Intense rainshowers are expected too with amount near 100 to 200 millimeters and more during all the episode...
Hope the best for all Leewards , be prepared for the worst and be safe, prudent during Omar's travel...
Best thoughts positives Msbee of St Marteen...hope the very best for you!

[HURAKAN]

[KatDaddy]

If the eye continues NE, St Croix will get the N and NNW eyewall which I bet has at least 115mph winds. Its one of the more intense eyewalls on radar this season.

[wxman57]

I cannot see from the NHC map, but which islands are closest to the NHC track right now?

Here's a map I made in Streets & Trips. I measured distances to the major islands (in miles) perpendicular to the track. It looks like Omar may track a little right of the forecast, putting it just east of St. Croix and possibly through a gap in the islands.

[HURAKAN]

St. Croix looks to be in a bad position.

[Sanibel]

The eye is scary the way it wobbles loose then wraps tight and round in pulses.


Totally amateur unprofessional view: I think BVI dodged a bullet.

[wxman57]

St. Croix decoded obs (TISX):

TISX| |160153|75.0F|73.9F|96.5%|030|028|038|29.56|999|OVC|Heavy Rain , Mist
TISX| |160145|75.0F|75.0F|100.0%|040|024|032|29.59|999|OVC|Heavy Rain , Mist
TISX| |160140|75.0F|75.0F|100.0%|040|024|032|29.59|999|OVC|Heavy Rain , Mist
TISX| |160116|75.0F|75.0F|100.0%|040|021|037|29.63|999|OVC|Heavy Rain , Mist

Latest wind 030 28 gusting 38 kts. Not even TS force sustained wind yet. Small storm.

[HURAKAN]

[KatDaddy]

With a powerhouse eyewall. Reminds me of Humberto.

[superfly]

The eye is finally starting to clear out on satellite images.

[caribepr]

Gotta say...I love that graphic (the still image), despite everything. I've never said that before but wow! What a great t-shirt!

The rain is becoming a bit more consistant, wind picking up a bit more. We're very, very fortunate, unfortunate for those to our east.

[Sanibel]

The ULL could have a slight nudge east as it tracks giving St Martins a good share of this too possibly.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[KatDaddy]

Aggggggggggggg! Lost the San Juan radar

[HURAKAN]

[KatDaddy]

We have the San Juan radar back and St Croix is going to take a pounding by Omar's eyewall in the next 1-2 hours.

[caribepr]

Getting a bit more frisky here...

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 152359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE OMAR IS CENTERED NEAR 16.6N 65.2W AT 16/0000 UTC OR
ABOUT 70 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST. CROIX AND ABOUT 115 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MOVING NE AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 90 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE
FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120
NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 12N-21N BETWEEN
59W-68W. OMAR IS FORECAST TO TRACK NE THROUGH THE NRN LEEWARD
AND VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

[KatDaddy]

Currently looks like the eyewall will be just SE of St Croix.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Getting a bit more frisky here...

I'll say...