ATL: IKE Discussion

[jinftl]

with all of those little islands in the turks & caicos and in the bahama chain...who knows....ike might have passed over dozens...technically making that many landfalls!

do we have 3:

Turks & Caicos
Bahamas (Mayaguana)
Cuba

whats the official landfall total so far? We have at least two more.

i won 250 bucks in the office going with a 4 bagger for gus, everyone else went three, tiebreakers go to cumulative miles from landfall prediction, it isnt a competition for the weak thats for sure, lol

[KWT]

when gustav emerged from cuba, didn't he encounter some shear in the overall environment...which may have contributed him to not re-strrengthening as much as first feared.

What is the upper air environment around cuba and se gulf? 85-90 degree bathwater all over his nearest water tracks.

Well conditions are good enough for the NHC to forecast this back upto major hurricane status and so that should answer the question what are upper conditions like...a heck of a lot better then with Gustav anyway!

[Windy]

Lots of people say to listen to NHC ...I don't ...I can remember in the past when our experienced ProMet had the fortitude to go against NHC and he was right. When push comes to shove we dummies make our decision based on the trust factor.

I don't want to argue this point, but I do want to explain something: Computer technology has evolved so much even in just the past few years that what may have happened a couple of years ago is really no longer relevant. Computing power has increased so much and is continuing to do so, and therefore, every year, the amount of data that they're able to analyze on a timely basis grows and grows. As a result, the track forecasts have and will only get more and more accurate each year. This year and last, NHC seems to be doing a great job with the short term forecasts, and at some point when the technology is there, I'm confident they'll be able to extend the accuracy of their forecasting ability to a greater period of time than just three days. What is hard for most people to comprehend is the sheer amount of data that has to go into these systems to provide any kind of dependable result, and how long it takes to process these massive amounts of data on a timely basis. Many of us like to complain, but the reality is that we're very lucky we even have the hurricane forecasts we do today. We really can't say that what happened a few years ago when they missed this or that track is even in the same ballpark as what they are able to do today.

Yes, but eventually you hit a wall in which the amount of data required grows exponentially to the increase in accuracy. Fluid dynamics is very much a chaos science; you will never see the day when the NHC can reliably nail hurricane tracks 14 days out. It's not that we don't have good enough computers, it's that the laws of the universe preclude this ability.

The trust thing is a good thing to think about, public wise. The public will often have more trust in local mets than the NHC. The local mets are on TV every day talking to them, joking with them, etc. Should probably make local mets feel even more weight on their shoulders. At any rate, the local mets have just as much access to most of the computer models the NHC uses. Their weakness is that they do no constantly forecast TCs and are so less experienced in the TC forecast field (unless your station is lucky enough to have Max Mayfield on staff. ). Their strength is that they know their local area's forecast trends and quirks much better than the NHC.

[ConvergenceZone]

No its not Hurakan but then again its spent a good 12hrs overland so thats to be expected, I think give it 6hrs over water and with a tight inner core and good structure still that convection will steadily deepen.

yikes can you imagine what it would have looked like KWT had it spent 36 hours over land? based on the lack of convection now, we would have probably been looking at a naked swirl...

[jlauderdal]

with all of those little islands in the turks & caicos and in the bahama chain...who knows....ike might have passed over dozens...technically making that many landfalls!

do we have 3:

Turks & Caicos
Bahamas (Mayaguana)
Cuba

whats the official landfall total so far? We have at least two more.

i won 250 bucks in the office going with a 4 bagger for gus, everyone else went three, tiebreakers go to cumulative miles from landfall prediction, it isnt a competition for the weak thats for sure, lol

[/quote]

there has to be an official count by nhc

[VeniceInlet]

true, but the public's expectations as to the accuracy of forecasts, even those made a few days out is has increased faster than the technology. We want to know the city to get hit...5 days out..not just the region. Being in a hurricane warning area is not specific enough for alot of people....i.e, charlety hit punta gorda and the cry was it was going for tampa. both were in hurricane warnings.

But an unrealistic and undereducated public isn't the fault of the NHC. The key is for the states and counties to provide eduction for people and to help them make better decisions. Part of the problem is that there hasn't been good information available to people until just recently after some really horrible storms hit. I remember when I first moved here in the late '90s how I couldn't get an answer from anyone in Sarasota County about storm surge in my area and what I possibly would be looking at in a worst case scenario.

[AJC3]

do we have 3:

Turks & Caicos
Bahamas (Mayaguana)
Cuba

Slight correction/clarification:

Turks and Caicos (Grand Turk)
Bahamas (Great Inagua)
Cuba

[Tireman4]

. Their weakness is that they do no constantly forecast TCs and are so less experienced in the TC forecast field (unless your station is lucky enough to have Max Mayfield on staff. ). Their strength is that they know their local area's forecast trends and quirks much better than the NHC.[/quote]

Or Dr Neil Frank.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I see a wobble WNW. Ike might try to rim-ride on the coast for a while...

[KWT]

Seems to me the inner core is still fairly well wrapped up and quite tight, seems like it hasn't really loosened up much at all looking at the loops thus far anyway.

Motion roughly 275 I reckon.

[AJC3]

Their strength is that they know their local area's forecast trends and quirks much better than the NHC.

So does your local WFO.

[inda_iwall]

I think the further south, the longer it takes until landfall which will only make it landfall further east, and the short time over cuba makes it stronger and heads more poleward, I believe landfall in SE LA, and into MS, AL is no longer out of possibility, especially if it slows more and spends more time down south and allows the high to weaken and/or move off. What so people tink of this possibility. This is just my own non-met thought process. Although from the stale hot air we have in place here in NGC, that high does not seem to be weakening.

[KWT]

I see a wobble WNW. Ike might try to rim-ride on the coast for a while...

I think what your seeing there is the center of Ike winding itself back up again, who knows you could be right but I'm still seeing prehaps a slight north of west motion.

[VeniceInlet]

Yes, but eventually you hit a wall in which the amount of data required grows exponentially to the increase in accuracy. Fluid dynamics is very much a chaos science; you will never see the day when the NHC can reliably nail hurricane tracks 14 days out. It's not that we don't have good enough computers, it's that the laws of the universe preclude this ability.

That's a good point, but I don't think that a week out is at all unrealistic. Even five days would be great and I think they're moving toward that. I think it will just be another couple of years until we see it.

[Ed Mahmoud]

No major hurricane has hit HOU area since Dr. Frank arrived, and although retired, KHOU-TV11 calls him back into the studio for tropical events, like Hurricane Dolly and T.S. Edouard, so his force field still protects us.

[HouTXmetro]

I think the further south, the longer it takes until landfall which will only make it landfall further east, and the short time over cuba makes it stronger and heads more poleward, I believe landfall in SE LA, and into MS, AL is no longer out of possibility, especially if it slows more and spends more time down south and allows the high to weaken and/or move off. What so people tink of this possibility. This is just my own non-met thought process. Although from the stale hot air we have in place here in NGC, that high does not seem to be weakening.

If it slows considerably maybe, but it's not so I doubt that pans out.

[KWT]

Well the thing is it does seem increasingly likely that Texas is in the main firing zone with this one but would'nt like to say exactly where abouts given thats still a good 4-5 days down the line.

Still I've got a bad feeling that Ike will show just how favorable central parts of the Gulf of Mexico can be.

[Sabanic]

I think the further south, the longer it takes until landfall which will only make it landfall further east, and the short time over cuba makes it stronger and heads more poleward, I believe landfall in SE LA, and into MS, AL is no longer out of possibility, especially if it slows more and spends more time down south and allows the high to weaken and/or move off. What so people tink of this possibility. This is just my own non-met thought process. Although from the stale hot air we have in place here in NGC, that high does not seem to be weakening.

It is not weakening, and is not forecast to begin weakening until Wednesday. That's when we are supposed to get the return of Showers & Thunderstorms. All the things you mention though do make sense. My point is that if you look at the NHC's forecast track 24 hours ago, Ike is not following it. That's 24 hours. What a difference 96 - 144 could make.

[Tireman4]

No major hurricane has hit HOU area since Dr. Frank arrived, and although retired, KHOU-TV11 calls him back into the studio for tropical events, like Hurricane Dolly and T.S. Edouard, so his force field still protects us.

THE MAN. HE ROCKS!!!!

[funster]

No major hurricane has hit HOU area since Dr. Frank arrived, and although retired, KHOU-TV11 calls him back into the studio for tropical events, like Hurricane Dolly and T.S. Edouard, so his force field still protects us.

His aerodynamic haircut must have something to do with it