ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[KWT]

The lack of convergence is probably why the convection decayed overnight, I wonder why its decreased like that though?!

[Thunder44]

The lack of convergence is probably why the convection decayed overnight, I wonder why its decreased like that though?!

Because the whole system is probably weakening. Needs to be starting show more signs of organization today, or I'm going with the models not developing this system again.

[HURAKAN]

The lack of convergence is probably why the convection decayed overnight, I wonder why its decreased like that though?!

It just makes you think about how many factors come together to create a hurricane. Favorable SST, faorable Upper Level winds, moist environment, and low SAL are not the whole story.

[Derek Ortt]

there might be too much ITCZ convection to the south, which is blocking the inflow

[KWT]

Maybe thunder though its stil lgot a clearly evident center and as long as thats still spinning then eventually its surely going to find the right conditions that it needs again, as we learnt with Bertha as soon as something go down they can come straight back up, but we will have to see with this one won't we!

Derek, interesting so as it pulls away from the ITCZ slowly but surely it may find better conditions to develop?

[NDG]

The lack of convergence is probably why the convection decayed overnight, I wonder why its decreased like that though?!

You answered your own question, no surface inflow or convergence=no fuel to keep convection refiring.

[KWT]

Yep so if it can regain convergence then convection should refire again. Of course the longer that takes the weaker any circulation will steadily become I suppose.

[Derek Ortt]

Maybe thunder though its stil lgot a clearly evident center and as long as thats still spinning then eventually its surely going to find the right conditions that it needs again, as we learnt with Bertha as soon as something go down they can come straight back up, but we will have to see with this one won't we!

Derek, interesting so as it pulls away from the ITCZ slowly but surely it may find better conditions to develop?

not really... no convergence to the north

should have remained farther south, where there was convergence

[boca]

I would have to say that looking at this on sat it still looks like it will become a depression within the next day or so.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[KWT]

Interesting stuff Derek so chances for development have gone down then in that case, we will have to see if it can pop any decent convection in the next 24hrs otherwise it will be in trouble.

[canegrl04]

If it doesn't become a depression today,I guess that shows how unreliable the models can be to go from bullish to suddenly,'fugetaboutit"

[Derek Ortt]

surprisingly, the SSD T number went up to a 1.5 (not really sure how that happened)

[wxman57]

Certainly looks more impressive to me today than it did yesterday. Could be upgraded this afternoon, tomorrow at the latest.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I still think I see a broad rotation center (what level, I don't know) near 12ºN, 41ºW, with heaviest showers still tied to the ITCZ.

In my unofficial and amaturish estimate, 50% sounds like a decent probability for development.

Looking at GFDL run, and 500 mb height progs from Canadian, GFS and Euro, I'd expect if this does form, a somewhat Charley 2004 like path (not saying intensity), with a turn North across Cuba, seems possible. No idea if the turn North if East or West or towards the Peninsula, but I'd say anyway from near Pensacola to Hatteras should keep a wary eye, along with residents of the Greater Antilles, and people in the Lesser Antilles, especially, should be planning preliminary actions, maybe stocking on things that will get scarce when official watches and warnings go up.

I remember how hard it was to find gas and bottled water when the warning for Rita went up.


Disclaimer: I think, as an amateur, I'm pretty good. Like the best left guard in a junior varsity football game. But I'd be crushed if I played in the NFL. So, take it with a grain. Unofficial, and positively not endorsed by Storm2K. And lets recall that Derek and WxMan57 are professional players, Derek the first round draft pick, WxMan57 the crafty veteran, like Strahan in his final season, except I doubt he is retiring. If they say I'm wrong, and bull rush towards the QB, odds are he is going to be sacked.


Please use your imagination, and pretend the disclaimer is sort of greenish and italicized.


Hmmmm, tags work on this thread. Derek's Q&A thread, not so well.

'amaturish' missing the letter 'e'.

[gatorcane]

Certainly looks more impressive to me today than it did yesterday. Could be upgraded this afternoon, tomorrow at the latest.

Indeed just because it doesn't have the deep reds on the IR, doesn't mean it is not getting better organized. I agree with this assessment.

Nice structure on the VIS also:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[KWT]

wxman57, what about the lack of any deep convection bar on the southern side near the ITCZ isn't that a problem?

Still I agree the structure has indeed tightened up recently just would like to see more convection over the center.

By the way the track is still WNW it seems around 285-290, its going to have to track further west then that if its going to take the Caribbean crusier route.

[boca]

I still think I see a broad rotation center (what level, I don't know) near 12ºN, 41ºW, with heaviest showers still tied to the ITCZ.

In my unofficial and amaturish estimate, 50% sounds like a decent probability for development.

Looking at GFDL run, and 500 mb height progs from Canadian, GFS and Euro, I'd expect if this does form, a somewhat Charley 2004 like path (not saying intensity), with a turn North across Cuba, seems possible. No idea if the turn North if East or West or towards the Peninsula, but I'd say anyway from near Pensacola to Hatteras should keep a wary eye, along with residents of the Greater Antilles, and people in the Lesser Antilles, especially, should be planning preliminary actions, maybe stocking on things that will get scarce when official watches and warnings go up.

I remember how hard it was to find gas and bottled water when the warning for Rita went up.


Disclaimer: I think, as an amateur, I'm pretty good. Like the best left guard in a junior varsity football game. But I'd be crushed if I played in the NFL. So, take it with a grain. Unofficial, and positively not endorsed by Storm2K. And lets recall that Derek and WxMan57 are professional players, Derek the first round draft pick, WxMan57 the crafty veteran, like Strahan in his final season, except I doubt he is retiring. If they say I'm wrong, and bull rush towards the QB, odds are he is going to be sacked.


Please use your imagination, and pretend the disclaimer is sort of greenish and italicized.


Hmmmm, tags work on this thread. Derek's Q&A thread, not so well.

'amaturish' missing the letter 'e'.

Ed do you see a trough coming in which would cause the turn around Cuba?

[wx247]

Season cancel!!! Just kidding, just kidding...

Looks like we will be able to know a lot more in the next 12-24 hours.

[wxman57]

wxman57, what about the lack of any deep convection bar on the southern side near the ITCZ isn't that a problem?

Still I agree the structure has indeed tightened up recently just would like to see more convection over the center.

By the way the track is still WNW it seems around 285-290, its going to have to track further west then that if its going to take the Caribbean crusier route.

They don't develop instantly. First it had to separate from the ITCZ and develop an LLC, which it has. Now it needs to generate convection to enhance the inflow, which it probably will today. Actually, it looks better than I thought it would in such a short time.

[boca]

Wxman57 do think think 94L will pull a dean and felix on us?