ATL: IKE Discussion

[AdamFirst]

Local TV meteorologists are highly wary of the storm at the moment. They said they we need to keep an eye on this one more than Hanna.

[KWT]

Does look like its increasingly less likely to hit the Caribbean islands now looknig at the models and I agree with Dekltadgo I'm not sure much of a WSW turn will occur though I think it willend bavck west but further north then the NHC expe ct...even the GFDL has this reaching 25N now before doing the stupid dive SW it has down tio Cuba.

Eyewall still looks open but there has been a constant hint of an eye.

[stormchazer]

Agree KWT, unless Ike slows I wonder if there will be some effect from Hanna and the remants of Gustav to the North, i.e. weakness.

We all know but should be reminded that day 4 and 5 forecast are a crapshoot.

[Sabanic]

I know that Dr. Bill Williams at the University of South Alabama is very concerned about the possibilty of Ike entering the GOM. He stated such this morning.

[HURAKAN]

Best Track 12z: 60 knots

AL, 09, 2008090312, , BEST, 0, 205N, 504W, 60,

[KWT]

Wel lthats a bit better Hurakan now upto 60kts but this really should be a hurricane IMO based on the apperence at the current time.

stormchazer, the longer Hanna takes the greater the chance of Ike following Hanna into a possible Caorlinas hit...we shall have to wait and see but I'm not buying the Cuba/Gulf idea at all right now.

[rockyman]

I know that Dr. Bill Williams at the University of South Alabama is very concerned about the possibilty of Ike entering the GOM. He stated such this morning.

Good morning! where did you see/hear this?

[chris_fit]

Looking at her this morning... IMO I believe that she will strengthen significantly today. She is wrapping herself as I type this in intense convection around the center. I expect a rather large increase in strength by 11pm.

[KWT]

Convection increasing yet again in the northern quadrant but the eyewall is still open, its having a fairly hard time trying to close that eyewall off it seems, eventually its going to make it and when it does the system should undergo some decent strengthening.

[AtlanticWind]

I would guess that Ike will turn north before reaching Florida based on climatology and some models like the ukmet . But I would not bet on it yet.

[Meso]

Turn north? As in, out to sea? or just in a more northerly heading "Some of the models" There is one or two real model which shows it being a fish ;p The UKmet does show it more northerly than the other models but it is still heading west at the end towards the East coast it seems. Models at the moment are still heading below Florida in general, I think we may see a more northerly shift in the models, but not northerly to the point of a fish.

We will probably see some fluctuations in intensity over the next few days too, as the GFDL shows and the NHC says, due to the shear which is forecast. But this storm definitely has the potential for trouble

[Fego]

T numbers..

03/1145 UTC 20.6N 50.4W T4.0/4.0 IKE -- Atlantic Ocean

[KWT]

Thats good enough Fego, I expect come next advisory we shall have hurricane Ike, no reason why the NHC shoulsdn't upgrade when we have a pretty decent inner core, granted not quite clsoed, and T numbers up at 4.0.

As for the track, I really don't think this recurves out sea like the GFS shows, but right now its not easy to know what will happen until Hanna lifts out of the way and we get a better idea of how the ridge will repsond.

[NEXRAD]

Ike's upper levels will be interacting with moisture streaming NE out of Hanna alla the trough by late this evening. It'll be very interesting later today to see what happens between the two systems. One possibility I'm considering is that Ike's western outflow is reduced by an increasingly convergent flow about Ike's NW peripheries.

- Jay

[HURAKAN]

In reality the climatology for a storm this far north and this far east is to turn to the north well before reaching the Bahamas.



Ike cannot be compared to climatology because we're in uncharted territory.

[HURAKAN]

Ike's liking it!

[Sanibel]

Fay - Slight dip WSW over Puerto Rico then slow recurve.

Gus - Big SW dip from Haiti, then NW track

Hanna - Forecast for WSW dip, did tight loop, south drift and stall.

Ike - Forecast for WSW dip.

[AtlanticWind]

Turn north? As in, out to sea? or just in a more northerly heading "Some of the models" There is one or two real model which shows it being a fish ;p The UKmet does show it more northerly than the other models but it is still heading west at the end towards the East coast it seems. Models at the moment are still heading below Florida in general, I think we may see a more northerly shift in the models, but not northerly to the point of a fish.

We will probably see some fluctuations in intensity over the next few days too, as the GFDL shows and the NHC says, due to the shear which is forecast. But this storm definitely has the potential for trouble

I agree that most of the models take Ike west near Fla and the carribean at this time , It just would be an unusual track for a storm at that lattitude so I will be watching the models closely in the coming days.

[gatorcane]

Derek Ortt's latest track guidance is nudged slightly north --- a track towards the Western Bahamas.....and getting closer to Southern Florida instead of passing south of Florida

Okay this thing has my attention now

[KWT]

Jay, thats an interesting possiblity though I'm not sure whether that will do anything other than maybe slightly slow the strengthening trend Ike is displaying.

That eyewall really does seem to be having a hard time to close off and until that happens any strengthening is going to be at best steady.

Still this probably is a 65kt hurricane now based on the 4.0.

Gatrocane, I'm pretty sure this won't be a Caribbean threat to be honest.