ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[AtlanticWind]

Just saw the Hwrf. Im leaving now .....

[gatorcane]

Just saw the Hwrf. Im leaving now .....

I may be following you soon. If that HWRF verifies I'm leaving South Florida and will not ride this out

[robbielyn]

Those who live in South Florida,dont look at this HWRF loop:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

I noticed with this model it has the storm getting larger in size that was indeed scary

[HURAKAN]

The day after tomorrow should be a better day for the models as the RECON information is integrated.

That's why we always say to wait. Yesterday it was east, today is west, and tomorrow, who knows. Nonetheless, today's and yesterday's models agree that there is a cyclone (powerful) moving towards the SE US. Keep an eye on it but still, don't jump to conclusions!

[caneseddy]

however, the GFDL solution would give the storm plenty of time to ramp up over the Florida straits

that is the worst case track, as that could split the Peninsula, hammering everyone from the Keys to the metro areas

My biggest fear has been a major hurricane coming at an angle from the SE. If the HWRF and GFDL verify, then this will be worse than Andrew because Nassau is obliterated, the Keys will get raked with storm surge, and the eye would pass close, if not over the South Florida metro area (Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, Palm Beach). That could easily surpass Katrina in destruction.

Of course, it is still early and the models can and will change, but I'm gearing up for the possibility of a Cat 4 off the coast next week

[Sabanic]

And with the ridge building in, and possibly a more westerly path the GOM could be in the future of Ike's path

[Blown Away]

12Z HWRF ends 908mb just off miami.

Definitely a trend west overall at 12z. Not good for FL.

Come on is that Andrew?? Amazing similarity.

[jlauderdal]

Those who live in South Florida,dont look at this HWRF loop:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

a 905 low coming into miami will rattle a few nerves that's for sure, hwrf had gustav coming into new orelans at a similar intensity and that didnt materialize

[ronjon]

And with the ridge building in, and possibly a more westerly path the GOM could be in the future of Ike's path

yeah, sabanic, I'm now starting to think Ike will make it to the GOM - if that GFDL run verifies, I could see it riding up the SW coast of FL similar to the Labor Day storm of 1935.

[Canelaw99]

a 905 low coming into miami will rattle a few nerves that's for sure, hwrf had gustav coming into new orelans at a similar intensity and that didnt materialize

But Gus did go in about 50 miles west or so, correct? Definitely not at the intensity, thankfully, but still was pretty close on the landfall point IMO...just something we have to keep an eye on.

[jlauderdal]

a 905 low coming into miami will rattle a few nerves that's for sure, hwrf had gustav coming into new orelans at a similar intensity and that didnt materialize

But Gus did go in about 50 miles west or so, correct? Definitely not at the intensity, thankfully, but still was pretty close on the landfall point IMO...just something we have to keep an eye on.

tracks were very good on gustav which is concerning but gfdl and hwrf were way to intense with gus but as we know intensity forecasting is voodo science at its best but all signs point to a very intense cyclone in the bahamas early next week

[Deb321]

Those who live in South Florida,dont look at this HWRF loop:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Not good, VERY not good...ugh....hopefully this is just one of those notorious model flip-flops and it will shift east again...*makes mental hope* models shift east, models shift east...

I don't wish this thing on anyone, wish it would go out to see and not threaten land at all but I don't think that will happen. Wishing this to go east is so to speak wishing it possibly on me and I certainly don't want that to happen since I am in a flood zone and surrounded by trees in southeast georgia and a close brush would be bad enough

[Canelaw99]

Yep, unfortunately, it does seem most of the models show a strong storm there and near the coast beginning of the week. They should come into better agreement over direction these next couple of days too. Until then, not much any of us can do but watch, wait, and go over hurricane checklists, just in case.

[Canelaw99]

I don't wish this thing on anyone, wish it would go out to see and not threaten land at all but I don't think that will happen. Wishing this to go east is so to speak wishing it possibly on me and I certainly don't want that to happen since I am in a flood zone and surrounded by trees in southeast georgia and a close brush would be bad enough

Nope, definitely not wishing it on anyone. Most of my family is in NC, so it would suit me just fine for it to head to sea as well. As I don't see that happening, I'd rather not have a major knocking on our doorstep monday/tues...we just had an offer accepted on a house here in Homestead and would love to not have damage to it....

Is it Dec 1 yet?

[Deb321]

I still think there the models will change many times,last night I watched Steve Lyons and he showed a track that he said had low confidence right now but said the forcasted track looked like a roller coaster up and down so we will have to wait and see, but if this thing heads in my direction I'm leaving for sure.

[gatorcane]

Latest HWRF takes the NHC office in MIami out of commission

[bucman1]

If this track verifies would this effect both east and West coasts of Fla?

[HURAKAN]

Latest HWRF takes the NHC office in MIami out of commission

I have been there. It will need a lot more. The NHC is like a bomb shelter, very strong.

[Brent]

Latest HWRF takes the NHC office in MIami out of commission

They made it through Andrew(without missing an advisory) and have an even stronger office now.

[gatorcane]

Latest HWRF takes the NHC office in MIami out of commission

I have been there. It will need a lot more. The NHC is like a bomb shelter, very strong.

Good news about that