ATL: IKE Discussion

[KWT]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... tive_0.htm

look how shallow the cloud cover over the larger center, whilst the outer eyewall is quite obvious.

Still even if it takes a little while to ramp up when this makes it into the SE Gulf, its got 72-96hrs to do the job, easily enough time for a major...

[DESTRUCTION5]

You know, fci, I was just thinking the exact same thing. I can't figure out why they keep putting that in there, to be honest, but it does make me wonder.....

KEYS = SFL...

[Ed Mahmoud]

My opinion, and again this is coming from a guy who is not a met, is that Ike can still land anywhere from Matagorda Bay Houston, all the way up to New Iberia La.

If you live anywhere in those area, please by all means listen to your local mets and heed any evac orders given.

I know U of H just sent me this email with this link as a precaution. I didnt get this link when Gustav came...

http://uhemergency.info/go/site/1093/

My wife is a Cougar alum.

Anyway, I am still somewhat confident on Louisiana, but because my wife and four kids (including a 2 1/2 year old and a 10 month old) would be miserable w/o AC and lights for days if Ike did somehow follow something like the GFDL track, I am planning some reasonable precautions.

That is what I think. Louisiana. Like Rita. But if I'm not certain by Wednesday, and it were to come here, and I wait until Thursday, when tropical storm force winds arrive during the day Friday, (if the worst case models are right) I-45 and US 290 will be a parking lot. I know they'd contraflow I-45 from Conroe to Huntsville, but I bet going on Thursday still means a 12 hour plus trip. No fun.

If it is a big false alarm, and I send everyone to Bedford/Euless, Mom can see how big Thomas has grown, and how he laughs all the time, and says "Da-Da", and play with Edward and Teresa and Joshua. Eighty bucks of wasted gas round trip, but they'd have a nice visit.

I'd stay home with a Walther 22 for protection, and drink bottled water from a cooler and eat canned food, unless it became obvious electricity was weeks away, in which case I might bug out to join the family.

[Canelaw99]

Yeah, Destruction, I thought that, except when they want the Keys to pay attention, they specify "all interests in the Florida Keys"....at least I've seen that on prior storms....maybe changed this year? Don't know...just find it interesting

[Sanibel]

Blustery here in hot sunshine with those flat bottomed, low-topped fair weather clouds that always show up when a hurricane is near. Gradient and outside edge winds.

[mattpetre]

My opinion, and again this is coming from a guy who is not a met, is that Ike can still land anywhere from Matagorda Bay Houston, all the way up to New Iberia La.

If you live anywhere in those area, please by all means listen to your local mets and heed any evac orders given.

I know U of H just sent me this email with this link as a precaution. I didnt get this link when Gustav came...

http://uhemergency.info/go/site/1093/

My wife is a Cougar alum.

Anyway, I am still somewhat confident on Louisiana, but because my wife and four kids (including a 2 1/2 year old and a 10 month old) would be miserable w/o AC and lights for days if Ike did somehow follow something like the GFDL track, I am planning some reasonable precautions.

That is what I think. Louisiana. Like Rita. But if I'm not certain by Wednesday, and it were to come here, and I wait until Thursday, when tropical storm force winds arrive during the day Friday, (if the worst case models are right) I-45 and US 290 will be a parking lot. I know they'd contraflow I-45 from Conroe to Huntsville, but I bet going on Thursday still means a 12 hour plus trip. No fun.

If it is a big false alarm, and I send everyone to Bedford/Euless, Mom can see how big Thomas has grown, and how he laughs all the time, and says "Da-Da", and play with Edward and Teresa and Joshua. Eighty bucks of wasted gas round trip, but they'd have a nice visit.

I'd stay home with a Walther 22 for protection, and drink bottled water from a cooler and eat canned food, unless it became obvious electricity was weeks away, in which case I might bug out to join the family.

Gets scary when Ed begins to even mention preparations.... come on Ed have faith...

[wxman57]

Major model shift 18Z. Focus shifting south to mid TX coast. Corpus Christi to Victoria.

[sfwx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
242 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...
CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE HAS EMERGED OFF THE SOUTH CUBA COAST EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA THANKS TO THE LARGE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AREAS...BUT THIS IS BEING RAPIDLY
ERODED FROM THE SOUTHEAST BASED ON LATEST LOOPS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
HAVE FORMED ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE FIRST
SIGNIFICANT OUTER BAND FROM IKE IS MOVING ALMOST DUE WEST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

AS IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE DUE WEST...OUTER BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE WNW ACROSS SOUTH FL...BUT DUE TO MORE WESTWARD PROGRESS OF
THE SYSTEM IT IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH NORTHWARD
PROGRESS SIGNIFICANT BANDS WILL MAKE TONIGHT...BUT NEVERTHELESS
THE INCREASING ESE WIND FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A LARGE INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND
SPEED CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL GENERATE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
WEST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH FL. ANY OF THESE SHOWERS OR
STORMS REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THEY ARE IN BANDS MAY BE ABLE
TO MIX DOWN STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH GIVEN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING 40 KNOT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT.
AMOUNT OF BANDING SHOULD INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS IKE TURNS TO THE
WNW ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF CUBA AND FLOW SHIFTS MORE TO THE
ESE...LEADING TO WHAT WILL LIKELY BE THE WETTEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITHIN ANY
BANDS...HOWEVER DUE TO THEIR FAST MOVING NATURE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE KEPT IN CHECK. HOWEVER...SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL
IN SOME AREAS WHERE THE HEAVIEST BANDS SET UP...ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL TRAINING OF BANDS ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
IN UNIFORM/DEEP-LAYERED ESE FLOW. SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED 20-25 MPH AT MOST EAST COAST SITES AS WELL AS
NAPLES...WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH EVEN IN ABSENCE OF SHOWERS.
WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUE AS A RESULT. WINDS OVERNIGHT
MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY AND THUS THE DECISION TO EXTEND THE WIND
ADVISORY BEYOND THE CURRENT 2 AM EXPIRATION WILL BE MADE LATER
THIS EVENING ONCE LATEST WIND TRENDS CAN BE DETERMINED. SIMILAR
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A LITTLE LESS
SUNSHINE AND TURBULENT MIXING OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS.

THERE ALSO IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED BRIEF/WEAK TORNADOES
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...WITH THE THREAT BEING GREATEST FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS IS WHEN IKE MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE CWA AND THUS THE WIND FIELDS WILL BE
STRONGEST. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-3KM SRH RANGING FROM
150-300 M2/S2 ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD DEPENDING ON
WHETHER THE NAM OR GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS VERIFY. THE THREAT WILL
BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND
ALONG BOTH COASTS WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST.

BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IKE WILL BE MOVING WNW THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...LEAVING SOUTH FL IN A DEEP-LAYERED ESE/SE
FLOW IN BETWEEN IT AND LARGE DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND WITH
HIGH PWATS...SO POPS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE CLIMO LEVELS. BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THE RIDGE WILL
NOSE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...LEADING TO SOME REDUCTION OF POPS
AS DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASE A LITTLE.


PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE WX...STRASSBERG
AVIATION...BAXTER

[gatorcane]

Major model shift 18Z. Focus shifting south to mid TX coast. Corpus Christi to Victoria.

a few more shifts and the US may get spared....would that not be unbelievable given where Ike originated?

[Lowpressure]

Interesting GALVESTON DISCUSSION

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HURRICANE IKE SHOULD BE REGAINING CAT 2 TO
3 STATUS IN THE CENTRAL GULF...SETX SHOULD BE IN A LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND SUBSIDENT SO POPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
20S AT BEST AND LOWER THURSDAY AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AND AIRMASS
DRIES SLIGHTLY. FRIDAY THE PROGS FOR IKE SHOW SOME DIVERGENCE
AND WE HAVE TENDED TO FAVOR THE ECMWF WITH A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND THE ECMWF (HAVE TOSSED THE GFS OPERATIONAL 00Z
RUN...DUE TO ITS ABRUPT SLOWING OF IKE AT ITS ERRORS OVER THE PAST
5 DAYS WITH THE BUT JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF IT...SO HAVE
ACCORDINGLY INCREASED POPS DRAMATICALLY AND BOOSTED THE WINDS WITH
THE POPS AND WINDS PEAKING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE STARTED TO SHOW THE ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS LATE
THIS WEEK. LOOKING BACK AT THE HURRICANE HISTORIES IF YOU SORT THE
SYSTEMS FROM CAT 1 TO CAT 5 AND RUN ALL OF THEM THROUGH THE
CORRIDOR THAT IKE HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH (ROUGHLY THE EASTERN TIP
OF CUBA TO 60W AND FROM 20-25N AND AUG-SEP TIMEFRAME THE NUMBER
THAT COME TO THE WESTERN GULF IS SMALL. OUT OF 129 THAT GO THROUGH
THAT BOX ONLY 7 IMPACT INTO LA/TX SIGNIFICANTLY...MAKING THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK A LOWER PROBABILITY BUT NONETHELESS AS
STICKING TO MY GUNS. AM EXPECTING IKE TO GET CARRIED OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST SO DRY OUT THE AREA AND WARM TEMPS BACK
UP A LITTLE SUNDAY WITH DRIER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THANKS GO OUT
TO THE AREA OFFICES FOR THE CHATS AND TO HPC FOLKS.

FOLKS ACROSS SETX SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRACK OF IKE CLOSELY

[jinftl]

True...and the Keys are still under a hurricane watch and ts warning. I don't think the NHC is implying a landfall in SFl is possible...but Ike has a 200 mile ts storm radius....heck, we got winds gusting over 30mph now over the area...we could stilll get some peripheral impacts that are of note.

Sometimes once an area has been given the 'all clear'...that does not mean some impacts are not to be expected. And I know I got called out as a the dreaded 'w' type of forecaster yesterday for asking if a tropical storm watch or warning is possible for south florida....and i would say today probably not needed...but if you are 50 or 100 miles on either side of the cone...you may see peripheral effects, just not the eye.

Hurricane Statement
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
230 PM EDT MON SEP 8 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA GULF COASTAL WATERS...

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE.

.AT 2 PM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
21.2 NORTH LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 320 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI OR ABOUT 380 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH AND A WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST
MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THIS TRACK THE
CENTER OF IKE WILL MOVE OVER OR VERY NEAR CENTRAL CUBA TODAY AND
EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IKE MOVES OVER CENTRAL CUBA TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES.

Kind of funny how this board has written off any threat at all to South Florida, as I have too.
Yet, they still continue to put the bolded text in each advisory.

[KWT]

Major model shift 18Z. Focus shifting south to mid TX coast. Corpus Christi to Victoria.

Just following the 12z globals then I see, not all that unexpected to be honest.

Anyway Ike still seems split between its big eyewall and the smaller and now weakening inner eyewall, still once this gets clear of any land this should slowly wind back up, I can imagine this being a very large hurricane out in the gulf...

[dixiebreeze]

No "straight west" here:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rb.html

[HurricaneRobert]

What do you guys think of this plot here? It's hard to follow the lines, but the one that hit Brownsville (I think) emerged near where Ike is right now.

[jinftl]

confusing, mideleading, unlabelled. sorry...doesn't mean i think it is bad...just not sure what it is conveying.


i assume the tracks are historic ones? looks like those are being projected for ike.

What do you guys think of this plot here? It's hard to follow the lines, but the one that hit Brownsville (I think) emerged near where Ike is right now.

[tolakram]

No "straight west" here:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rb.html

I see due west.

This loop literally takes 10 minutes to load so start it up and let it sit for a while. You'll see near due west motion so far.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=white

Latest image:

[Dean4Storms]

This will be amazing if Ike hits Texas and double amazing if it strikes Mexico. It would show what a powerful Atlantic Ridge can do when the westerlies over the CONUS are mostly zonal even in Sept.

[pablolopez26]

Heres a link for evacuation routes for Houstonians and Galvestonians in case it becomes necessary.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/tropical/workshop06/HurricaneEvacuationMapzipcode.pdf

Remember if you do decide to stay, ice is your best friend. And so is water.

[KWT]

Yep heading due west though I think there is just a touch of sarcasm there

Further west now probably means further south landfall but who knows...

[artist]

Anybody have a Cuban radar for core progress offshore?

Just uploaded a 4-hour time lapse of the Pico San Juan (Cienfuegos) radar ending at 215 PM...

what would happen to steering if Ike becomes a ts again?