ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5641 Postby Nederlander » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:35 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I am seeing what looks to be an eye forming...
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#5642 Postby KWT » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:35 pm

I think AFM we already seeing hints of that occuring with the development of the inner core and with it having very good bandings it may well strengthen pretty rapidly IMO, esp if it can gain some convection like its doing already.

FWIW the models all seem to agree that this won't really take off till a little further WNW, I think thats why the NHC doesn't call for much strengthening in the next 12-18hrs.
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#5643 Postby caribepr » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:35 pm

While I don't know a lot about a lot...I do know something Derek said lo so many pages ago made huge sense to me and it seems to have been overlooked like...a lot of things concerning this system. I can't quote exactly (because I'm too lazy to go back and find it) but it was along the lines of - look at the big picture and not every little thing that happens along the way.
I think that is something missing in the last few dozen pages that was present in the beginning and middle, even with the ups and downs of what might happen, making it informative and interesting; even the disagreements were consolidated into learning for all.
BIG PICTURE...like what grown ups try to tell children and of course never get heard, because that picture takes time, patience, knowledge, experience. Difference being, saying...this is happening now, I see this at this moment, what do you all see?. Rather than, this is happening now, so that will happen then, full stop.
For awhile we had maybe, what, five or six pro mets joining in this particular thread (to whomever said something about one of the pros "joining the boards" - that person did), and now I think most have gone to the analysis thread, where some really pertinent info can be gleaned. Just something to think about.
And, while I'm not in the Yucatan, or Texas, or Guadaloupe (where 12 people died, by the way, from this weather that is real, regardless of its status), I am in a place where, when whatever system eventually comes here, I want to be able to read the immediate future as best as possible, as everyone, in every area that could be affected wants to do.
Think before you post, please.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5644 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:37 pm

KWT,

You're right about the northern eyewall impacting BRO, McAllen, etc.

But I'm thinking that the biggest impact from a Cat 1 or 2 strike in the RGV will be from rainfall more so than wind and storm surge issues (certainly Port Isabel and South Padre island residents would disagree with that).

The biggest problem is the huge developement that has taken place since Beulah hit there in 1967. The RGV has many more residents, homes, and businesses than it did 41 years ago.

And South Padre Island is a glittering jewel of sand, water, businesses, hotels, and condos.

Heaven help us if Dolly somehow strengthens into a Cat 3 and hits that area.
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#5645 Postby KWT » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:39 pm

RL3AO, yep your picture shows what I mean withthe western side getting better inflow and therefore deepening convection this is now reaching close to where the center is as well but you can see on the SE side the convection is far weaker where the air is coming in from the Yucatan.
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#5646 Postby RL3AO » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:40 pm

Recon shows 1002mb and its not to the center yet.

223200 2320N 09124W 7629 02374 0023 +143 +121 117040 041 033 001 00
Last edited by RL3AO on Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5647 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:40 pm

I've been thinking that we were seeing the beginnings of an eye wall for some time. Not sure if that's what it is just yet, but it looks the part.

Also interesting to note that Brett formed an eye as a Tropical Storm in 1999 and we all remember how explosive his development was.
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#5648 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:42 pm

Dolly is about to get nasty. Interesting night ahead.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5649 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:42 pm

Innercore developing with the first signs of a "CDO" forming over the center. Outflow is very very good to the north and east. I expect this could be a hurricane with in 12-15 hours.
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#5650 Postby RL3AO » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:44 pm

Could be near/under 1000mb.
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#5651 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:44 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5652 Postby paintplaye » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:45 pm

I don't know but i defiantly see a NW movement. Watch the last couple of frames.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5653 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:45 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:I've been thinking that we were seeing the beginnings of an eye wall for some time. Not sure if that's what it is just yet, but it looks the part.

Also interesting to note that Brett formed an eye as a Tropical Storm in 1999 and we all remember how explosive his development was.


That's been my thinking all along. I wouldn't be surprised to see a very dangerous hurricane within 24-30 hours.
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#5654 Postby txwatcher91 » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:46 pm

IMO this will become a strong Cat 3 or low-end Cat 4 before landfall.
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Re:

#5655 Postby Air Force Met » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:46 pm

KWT wrote:I think AFM we already seeing hints of that occuring with the development of the inner core and with it having very good bandings it may well strengthen pretty rapidly IMO, esp if it can gain some convection like its doing already.

FWIW the models all seem to agree that this won't really take off till a little further WNW, I think thats why the NHC doesn't call for much strengthening in the next 12-18hrs.


I agree. When I mean convectively getting its act together...I don't mean just some good thunderstorms and a steady drop in pressure...I mean hold on to your seats because the conditions are very good for explosive development and a big drop in pressure....and a nice cold CDO to go along with it.
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Re:

#5656 Postby WmE » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:46 pm

txwatcher91 wrote:IMO this will become a strong Cat 3 or low-end Cat 4 before landfall.


That's a bold prediction. your reasoning?
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5657 Postby Brent » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:46 pm

WHOA, just glanced at the satellite. Huge improvement in appearance even in just the last hour. :eek:

I think it's going to shed those weakening outer bands tonight and look more like a classic storm tomorrow, probably become a hurricane also.
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Re: ATL: TS Dolly in Southern Gulf of Mexico

#5658 Postby PhillyWX » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:47 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Innercore developing with the first signs of a "CDO" forming over the center. Outflow is very very good to the north and east. I expect this could be a hurricane with in 12-15 hours.


It definitely has gotten its act together in the last few hours. Much better looking than it this time yesterday.
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#5659 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:47 pm

***NOT OFFICIAL****

Convection is certainly getting much stronger around the center
of this tropical storm. I expect that this will strengthen to a hurricane
pretty quickly. Residents in Texas need to be preparing. I can not
stress that enough. The possibility for rapid intensification, especially
if that blow-up near the center continues, is there and needs to be
monitored very closely by Texas/North Mex Residents.

Given oceanic heat content, and a favorable ridge to the NE,
I expect rapid intensification to a potentially dangerous hurricane
prior to landfall. Once the convection surrounds the center
and intensifies, this tropical storm could quickly become
a very dangerous hurricane of Category 3 strength.
Last edited by Tampa Bay Hurricane on Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#5660 Postby PhillyWX » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:48 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
KWT wrote:I think AFM we already seeing hints of that occuring with the development of the inner core and with it having very good bandings it may well strengthen pretty rapidly IMO, esp if it can gain some convection like its doing already.

FWIW the models all seem to agree that this won't really take off till a little further WNW, I think thats why the NHC doesn't call for much strengthening in the next 12-18hrs.


I agree. When I mean convectively getting its act together...I don't mean just some good thunderstorms and a steady drop in pressure...I mean hold on to your seats because the conditions are very good for explosive development and a big drop in pressure....and a nice cold CDO to go along with it.


Water is between 84 and 88 all the way to the coast. The heat potential isn't as high as in the loop current but the waters are much shallower so that should offset not being over the loop.
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