ATL: IKE Discussion

[MWatkins]

given the margin of error for so far out, focusing on cities not even that far apart is a crap shoot.

Major model shift 18Z. Focus shifting south to mid TX coast. Corpus Christi to Victoria.

More good news, Arggg. Thanks wxman57.

Totally agree with you jinftl...for several reasons:

One...a few degree shift on a 4 to 5 day projection HARDLY qualifies as a major shift.

Two...the "18 Z models" are actually just a 6 hour interpolation of the 12Z runs (normalizing the late cycle vs. early cycle guidance). Other than the hurricane specific baratropic/statistical models, there is no real new info that wasn't there when the 12Z late cycles came out. Again...not a major shift at all.

Three...the focus on the determinitic track of a few models when the reliable ones are clearly split into two camps, I think, sends the WRONG MESSAGE that somehow the threat is decreasing along the upper Texas coast when it clearly is not.

Thanks for pointing this out...I think these details get missed for varous reasons.

MW

[wxman57]

Here's another 18Z plot with mostly consensus models, GFDL, HWRF, GFS, and UKMET. Consensus has shifted way down to Matagorda Bay with landfall late morning Saturday. GFDL and HWRF continue to be to the right of most model guidance, as does the NOGAPS. Clearly, they're not handling the ridge to the north very well. They're probably still too far north with the landfall point.

[Mattie]

The coastal plains of Texas are flat and low. A storm surge of 15 feet could reach 50 to 100 mile inland.

I know it's low. But, there is no way a storm surge reaching 50 miles inland....

I dont know for sure - I think it may have something to do with the bayou. If the ship channel is affected by storm surge, that pushes water up all the bayous, causing flooding throughout the city...

I THINK this is the case, but not at all sure..

This is true. In the Baton Rouge area, the rivers/creeks/lakes don't get the affects of the storm until much later as the water is pushed up into these waterways. There is nowhere for the water to go but up and over the banks. In the Denham Springs area, houses flooded, streets flooded (and not minor) several days after the storm has passed. The aftermath of the storm is the most difficult because on top of cleaning up and assessing storm damage, you have your eye turned to toward the river and you can actually watch the water rise. That's the sinking feeling. Limbs, power lines and the like can be cleared, you can thank your lucky stars that you and your family is alive, and then . . . the water rises. That can sometimes exceed the initial storm damage.

[Txdivermom]

Why do they evacuate so far inland in Texas? In South Florida, the evacuation zone where I live in Broward County, even for a Cat5, is less than 3 or 4 miles from the coast in most spots.

I'm sorry, but if it looks like Ike is a direct hit on Houston, I just don't see those evac routes doing any good for those south of Houston. They don't even start until the north side and all of us are still going to be in a massive traffic jam. JMHO Rant over.

The evac zones aren't the problem. It's the contraflow lanes that don't start until north side. So you have thousands of people on the coast FOLLOWING the people inland trying to get out. There is no enforcement of when zones are suppose to leave. So the people in the most danger run into those who aren't probably in any danger at all or at least a lot less danger.

Yes, those contra lanes not starting until almost totally out of town won't help a lot at all.

However, for the original poster's question... Although it's not a bowl like NOLA, much of Houston below I-10 is prone to flooding. There are many creeks and bayous (much like south La.) that all flow eventually to some major creeks and bayous and they back up. We have areas that flood several times a year and some that have the water get up in the streets (i-45 near my office...West Little York area is one) if it just rains hard. Flooding isn't unusual here.

That said, all of Houston north of i-10 should stay put unless they are in one of the low-lying areas. Maybe the difference between here and FL is that y'all have the Everglades and other bayou type areas that aren't that populated. Our low areas are all populated and they just keep building in them. I do think that this time they are planning on telling ONLY the evac areas to leave and telling everyone else to stay.

[tolakram]

Finally it looks like Ike is moving a bit north.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

[MBryant]

The coastal plains of Texas are flat and low. A storm surge of 15 feet could reach 50 to 100 mile inland.

I know it's low. But, there is no way a storm surge reaching 50 miles inland....

I am not post friendly, but if anyone can find the surge map for Orange County and post it, you'll find out what I'm talking about. Most of the deeper intrusion is along the rivers and bayous, but almost every place in the county is near a river or bayou.

[Jessie]

How many miles inland is the City of Houston? Years ago I lived in the Clear Creek area and I remember Galveston was 30 miles South and Houston was 30 miles North. Is that wrong? We don't evacuate in Mobile either unless we're in areas that flood. My house (according to Google Earth) is 20 miles from the Gulf. I wish so badly that the news would do segments on who should not evacuate when a storm is approaching. They act like the whole city is going to be blown down and that is just not true. I went through Frederic and my house didn't move an inch during the storm ---- the sliding glass doors were a problem, but that was it. The news should tell people what trees are most vulnerable during a storm and also why you cover windows --- it's not to keep the rug dry People wouldn't panic so much if they were given a little bit more information.

[artist]

MWatkins wrote:

Totally agree with you jinftl...for several reasons:

One...a few degree shift on a 4 to 5 day projection HARDLY qualifies as a major shift.

Two...the "18 Z models" are actually just a 6 hour interpolation of the 12Z runs (normalizing the late cycle vs. early cycle guidance). Other than the hurricane specific baratropic/statistical models, there is no real new info that wasn't there when the 12Z late cycles came out. Again...not a major shift at all.

Three...the focus on the determinitic track of a few models when the reliable ones are clearly split into two camps, I think, sends the WRONG MESSAGE that somehow the threat is decreasing along the upper Texas coast when it clearly is not.

Thanks for pointing this out...I think these details get missed for varous reasons.

MW

[/quote]

good to see your expertise thrown in here Mike.
Mike has been around for years for those not familiar with him and now chases with Mark Sudduth, and is great at reading the fronts, etc. It would be nice to see you do one of your Talking Tropics video updates again Mike!

[GeneratorPower]

Totally agree with you jinftl...for several reasons:

One...a few degree shift on a 4 to 5 day projection HARDLY qualifies as a major shift.

Two...the "18 Z models" are actually just a 6 hour interpolation of the 12Z runs (normalizing the late cycle vs. early cycle guidance). Other than the hurricane specific baratropic/statistical models, there is no real new info that wasn't there when the 12Z late cycles came out. Again...not a major shift at all.

Three...the focus on the determinitic track of a few models when the reliable ones are clearly split into two camps, I think, sends the WRONG MESSAGE that somehow the threat is decreasing along the upper Texas coast when it clearly is not.

Thanks for pointing this out...I think these details get missed for varous reasons.

MW

Mike, good to see you posting on here. I have looked at the 500mb GFS and what I'm seeing is clearly the GFS is showing a ridge of high pressure to the north and east of Ike that seems to be governing his movement. There doesn't really seem to be any large scale features shown on the model that could cause a northern turn. Being in Alabama, I'm not really concerned with the more western landfall locations. But have you seen anything on the previous GFS or other runs that would indicate a trough, etc, coming through that would cause a N or NE turn of this thing? What are the chances of that 500mb ridge just weakening enough to turn it north?

I'm having a hard time getting any useful information for my area.

Thanks
GP

[Txdivermom]

The coastal plains of Texas are flat and low. A storm surge of 15 feet could reach 50 to 100 mile inland.

I know it's low. But, there is no way a storm surge reaching 50 miles inland....

But you also have to consider that the Bay reaches pretty far inland, too, and the Port of Houston. I have no problem with evacuating that far inland, but there is no rhyme or reason to it. Everybosy goes at once even though they are told not to.

And I don't think it's so much the actual storm surge itself as the fact that the rain water will have nowhere to go. My neighborhood in NW Houston (Cypress) doesn't flood. However, many in our area (and everywhere around Houston) do. Because the Gulf and the lower bayous and creeks will be full, it will back up all over town just like a clogged sewer system or drain. With nowhere to drain, the water is in the streets and houses etc. That's what happened during Allison.

[AJC3]

Had to crop this was down and it was still 1.8MB. Please don't embed in any replies....thx.

[rtd2]

Finally it looks like Ike is moving a bit north.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

dont start I'm out of popcorn

[Shoshana]

TO ALL TO WHOM THESE PRESENTS SHALL COME:

I, RICK PERRY, Governor of Texas, do hereby certify that Hurricane Ike poses a threat of imminent disaster along the Texas Coast and in the counties of Anderson, Angelina, Aransas, Archer, Austin, Bee, Bell, Bexar, Bowie, Brazoria, Brazos, Brooks, Calhoun, Cameron, Cass, Chambers, Cherokee, Collin, Colorado, Comal, Dallas, Denton, DeWitt, Ellis, El Paso, Fort Bend, Franklin, Galveston, Goliad, Grayson, Gregg, Hardin, Harris, Harrison, Henderson, Hidalgo, Hill, Hopkins, Hunt, Jackson, Jasper, Jefferson, Jim Hogg, Jim Wells, Kaufman, Kenedy, Kleberg, Lamar, Lavaca, Liberty, Lubbock, Matagorda, McLennan, Montgomery, Nacogdoches, Navarro, Newton, Nueces, Orange, Panola, Parker, Polk, Potter, Randall, Refugio, Sabine, San Augustine, San Jacinto, San Patricio, Shelby, Smith, Starr, Tarrant, Titus, Tom Green, Travis, Trinity, Tyler, Van Zandt, Victoria, Waller, Walker, Webb, Wharton, Willacy, Williamson, Wise and Wood beginning September 7, 2008 and continuing.

That's about the eastern 2/3 of Texas all the way to Oklahoma.... altho it's kinda spotty - leaving out counties in between

Texas Counties Map

[mpic]

How many miles inland is the City of Houston? Years ago I lived in the Clear Creek area and I remember Galveston was 30 miles South and Houston was 30 miles North. Is that wrong? We don't evacuate in Mobile either unless we're in areas that flood. My house (according to Google Earth) is 20 miles from the Gulf. I wish so badly that the news would do segments on who should not evacuate when a storm is approaching. They act like the whole city is going to be blown down and that is just not true. I went through Frederic and my house didn't move an inch during the storm ---- the sliding glass doors were a problem, but that was it. The news should tell people what trees are most vulnerable during a storm and also why you cover windows --- it's not to keep the rug dry People wouldn't panic so much if they were given a little bit more information.

Totally agree I live 20 miles north of Gal and 6 miles from the Bay. Clear Lake flooded badly with Alicia ( where Nasa is and is now Houston). Heck, it floods with just a major rain storm. They DO need better communication and you can bet that I will be voicing it after this is over and the same garbage happens again.

Back on topic...is that ridge moving west at all or did I miss it?

[baitism]

Little wobble north there it seems. Its going to rake the Cuban coast.

[dwg71]

AJ3 that loops shows a lot of dry air coming into the center near the end...

[carversteve]

Finally it looks like Ike is moving a bit north.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

dont start I'm out of popcorn

Wobble wars, the new beginning!!

[rtd2]

Little wobble north there it seems. Its going to rake the Cuban coast.

yeah looks like its hugging the coast...

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

[caneman]

One...a few degree shift on a 4 to 5 day projection HARDLY qualifies as a major shift.

Two...the "18 Z models" are actually just a 6 hour interpolation of the 12Z runs (normalizing the late cycle vs. early cycle guidance). Other than the hurricane specific baratropic/statistical models, there is no real new info that wasn't there when the 12Z late cycles came out. Again...not a major shift at all.

Three...the focus on the determinitic track of a few models when the reliable ones are clearly split into two camps, I think, sends the WRONG MESSAGE that somehow the threat is decreasing along the upper Texas coast when it clearly is not.

Thanks for pointing this out...I think these details get missed for varous reasons.

MW[/quote]

MWatkins, Ahh, finally a well respected voice of reason to add some sanity to the board. Wish you would post more here.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

AJ3 that loops shows a lot of dry air coming into the center near the end...

Doesn't look to me like its dry air. It looks to me like the eye is clearing out. Where its dry there in the center theres a solid mass of convection all around it so there would be no way for dry air to be getting in there.