ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[KWT]

Well we will have to wait and see if that is the start of the much talked about rapid deepening, it is starting to look more impressive now so I feel its probably only a matter of time before it really gets going with such good conditions aloft. It'll head into a region that supported Cat-4 Bret as well, not saying it will get even close to that but just to show that this region can support strong systems...

[txwatcher91]

Look at the outflow, a sign this will likely be atleast a major.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

If the pressure is correct, thats a 6mb drop in two hours.

It may be a bit higher on the VDM (around 1000-1001) but still a significant drop in a short time period.

Why would they have it higher on the VDM? They clearly found that it went down to 998 theres no question about it.

[RL3AO]

We are one burst of covection away from this board going "this won't even become a hurricane" to "this will be a major hurricane tomorrow".

It took 62 minutes for my prediction to come true.

[HURAKAN]

[Texas Snowman]

Well, while I am certainly not going out on a limb and predicting a strong 3 or low end 4, I could see where that could happen.

The key IMO would be - given its large size and the way that the YP kept Dolly from strengthening much today - would be whether or not it could hold such development all the way to the coastline?

For that to happen, it would need to maintain its quick speed.

While I think a Cat 2 - and perhaps a 'cane approaching lower end Cat 3 - is far more likely where Dolly makes landfall, I shudder to think of the storm surge, the wind damage, and the flooding in the RGV if this did come ashore as a monster.

I think Beulah brought 136 mph sustained winds to S. Padre, an 18 foot storm surge, and considerable wind, tornado, and flooding damage to the Valley. If it did that in 1967, imagine what it could do today.

[WmE]

We are one burst of covection away from this board going "this won't even become a hurricane" to "this will be a major hurricane tomorrow".

It took 62 minutes for my prediction to come true.

Yeah, I was just thiking the same thing. Form this will be inland as a TS, to a potential Cat 4 in an hour.

[RL3AO]

If the pressure is correct, thats a 6mb drop in two hours.

It may be a bit higher on the VDM (around 1000-1001) but still a significant drop in a short time period.

Why would they have it higher on the VDM? They clearly found that it went down to 998 theres no question about it.

Those pressures are just extrapolated and not directly measured. They will use a dropsonde to find the actual pressure.

[jhamps10]

If the pressure is correct, thats a 6mb drop in two hours.

It may be a bit higher on the VDM (around 1000-1001) but still a significant drop in a short time period.

Why would they have it higher on the VDM? They clearly found that it went down to 998 theres no question about it.

with a good bit of observations around it with 998-999 mb pressure too.

[vaffie]

I expect that once the CDO develops fully in the next few hours, we will have a dramatic fall in the pressure. The storm on the southern end of the center will wrap around very soon. The increase in the wind speeds will, as often happens with rapid falls in pressure, be delayed by a few hours.

[Normandy]

We are one burst of covection away from this board going "this won't even become a hurricane" to "this will be a major hurricane tomorrow".

It took 62 minutes for my prediction to come true.

Yeah, I was just thiking the same thing. Form this will be inland as a TS, to a potential Cat 4 in an hour.

Clearly the potential for ROC "Rapid Opinion Changes" was extremely high for Dolly.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

We are one burst of covection away from this board going "this won't even become a hurricane" to "this will be a major hurricane tomorrow".

It took 62 minutes for my prediction to come true.

I just came in the house on my first post. I've more or less been looking at data in getting a handle on it. But yes my options do change as new data or improvements do happen. I've not done a good job in forecasting, I will admit I've got some egg on my face with this system. Not far off my forecast track in my personal forecast post yesterday.

[jaxfladude]

Dolly could be a baaaaaaaa-d sheep, er hurricane for Texas ....
Prayers for all under the gun so to speak....

[PhillyWX]

We are one burst of covection away from this board going "this won't even become a hurricane" to "this will be a major hurricane tomorrow".

It took 62 minutes for my prediction to come true.

Every single satellite image being dissected will do that to a message board.

[Bolebuns]

Question for all:

What hurricane do you remember bombing the most in 12 hrs?

I can't help but fear this one could also surprise, as well. All I want is rain!

Waiting and watching...

(sorry if this double posts...having probs keeping up.)

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looking a little better, but I still see what appears to be a motion between West and West-Northwest, and I still think the official NHC forecast point is a shade too far North.



Of course, 30 or 40 miles difference in landfall point isn't huge, and a landfall just South of BRO would probably bring them worse weather than a landfall North of BRO.

[Aric Dunn]

Question for all:

What hurricane do you remember bombing the most in 12 hrs?

I can't help but fear this one could also surprise, as well. All I want is rain!

Waiting and watching...

(sorry if this double posts...having probs keeping up.)

WILMA

[RL3AO]

Question for all:

What hurricane do you remember bombing the most in 12 hrs?

I can't help but fear this one could also surprise, as well. All I want is rain!

Waiting and watching...

(sorry if this double posts...having probs keeping up.)

Hurricane? Wilma. Tropical depression/storm? Humberto. He might not have stregthened as quickly as Wilma, but what he did was amazing.

[sphelps8681]

Any chance this thing could start going more North as far as land fall? I am a planner and want more than 1 day notice to plan. I live N. of Beaumont in Lumberton. Don't want to stick around if you know what I mean.

BTW - Flashback to Rita

[Brent]

Question for all:

What hurricane do you remember bombing the most in 12 hrs?

Wilma. 970 at 5pm Tuesday, 884 at 5am Wednesday(882 shortly thereafter).