ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Category6]

Can someone provide a link of sea-surface temps?

[RL3AO]

NHC and models say it sould be moving WNW right now. VDMs show a 275 movement or so. How long will this west movement continue is the major question of the day IMO.

[TCmet]

That's a pretty high pressure for 50-55 kts, why?

i think because the wind speed is not 50-55kts yet. more like 40-45kt.

[Lowpressure]

Could that tail end of the frontal boundry in the Northern Gulf spawn something at the surface? Those are some big storms and very some hot water, I know, need to persist. I am wondering the ultimate impacts here if a LLC develops in the Northern Gulf?

[NDG]

Looks like the 18z gfdl moved back to the west, Naples & FT Myers

[KWT]

Yep of course ALhurricane it doesn't surprise me all that much really, either way I find it hard that the NHC won't least mention the fact that the models are already too far north at this point.

The fact that it may spend more time over those hot waters near Cuba does suggest we could see this getting stronger quicker then expected.

However should be noted the /gfs does show less condusive upper conditions in the gulf after a while and if it stays over water longer *may* mean a lower strength at landfall compared with a west coast Florida hit that some models suggest.

Right now though we can only guess, tricky to say what will happen!

[Praxus]

Surface temps

[deltadog03]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

Updated steering map...It appears** that the weakness (first one) has pushed a little east of florida. Also, the ridge in the GOM has tightened its grip as well. Thoughts???

Now, I posted this map 6 hours ago, and the ridge over the GOM has tightened up a bit. I would still expect this to move more west...Also, even if it does strengthen a bit, well the ridge is still holding tough at that level as well.

[KWT]

NHC and models say it sould be moving WNW right now. VDMs show a 275 movement or so. How long will this west movement continue is the major question of the day IMO.

Its probably not even 275 at the moment, I'd guess maybe only 272 which may as well be due west. As you say the big question is how long does this motion last, models that end up further east already have this moving WNW as you mention.

Looks like the guidence right now is just too far east, expect a shift to the west tomorrow night if this carries on.

[cycloneye]

The latest VDM:

000
URNT12 KNHC 162339
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062008
A. 16/23:16:30Z
B. 19 deg 17 min N
075 deg 38 min W
C. 850 mb 1462 m
D. NA kt
E. 145 deg 74 nm
F. 185 deg 040 kt
G. 142 deg 076 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 16 C/ 1526 m
J. 18 C/ 1519 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 0.02 / 6 nm
P. AF304 0906A FAY OB 20
MAX FL WIND 57 KT NE QUAD 20:02:00 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB

[deltadog03]

NHC said W @16 mph last time I looked...

[ALhurricane]

Yep of course ALhurricane it doesn't surprise me all that much really, either way I find it hard that the NHC won't least mention the fact that the models are already too far north at this point.

The fact that it may spend more time over those hot waters near Cuba does suggest we could see this getting stronger quicker then expected.

However should be noted the /gfs does show less condusive upper conditions in the gulf after a while and if it stays over water longer *may* mean a lower strength at landfall compared with a west coast Florida hit that some models suggest.

Right now though we can only guess, tricky to say what will happen!

Actually, I think conditions will be fairly conducive for several days. There is a fairly stout upper level anticyclone forecast by the guidance to persist for much of the life of the storm. If it goes further north, say toward the panhandle, then the upper flow does increase modestly out of the SW, however it may then be in a favorable right entrance region of an upper jet to its north, which could help the poleward outflow channel. Overall, I don't see much negative for strengthening, except for land interaction.

[KWT]

That is exactly due west according to that vortex, hasn't gained any lattiude at all, not good for the forecasted track...

[Jason_B]

This kinda reminds me of Katrina when she kept going west and ignored all the models.

[Category6]

Could that tail end of the frontal boundry in the Northern Gulf spawn something at the surface? Those are some big storms and very some hot water, I know, need to persist. I am wondering the ultimate impacts here if a LLC develops in the Northern Gulf?

I was wondering that too. There's an awful lot of convection firing up around that frontal boundary. How will this impact Fay if it does at all?

[KWT]

Yeah the other thing ALhurricane is that current that is west of Florida, clearly the further west it gets the closer it gets to that and we saw in 2005 just what a menace that can be at times...

[shaggy]

That is exactly due west according to that vortex, hasn't gained any lattiude at all, not good for the forecasted track...

It isn't in the short term. I remember a few years back I was watching Fabian I believe and he missed several NHC plots and I started thinking they had blown it and that he wasn't going to curve. Well sure enough he did it but he just did it a little later but still made the 36 hour plot he just curved harder.

When the western edge of the ridge erodes it will turn more NW its just a matter of when and where and just because he misses the early track positions doesn't mean it won't over correct and be N of one further down stream.

[jasons2k]

Shot at 2008-08-16

[KWT]

Yeah thats true ncdowneast but the synoptics are different with this one, you've got to think why is it moving further to the west then the models expected, the simple answer is probably the upper ridge is stronger then progged and if it is then the turn will happen further west of where the models progged because they progged a weaker ridge from the start.

[Steve]

>>When the western edge of the ridge erodes it will turn more NW its just a matter of when and where and just because he misses the early track positions doesn't mean it won't over correct and be N of one further down stream.

NHC's 5pm discussion has it at 19.9/77.0 as of 5am tomorrow (currently at like 19.17/75.38). I agree with you but it doesn't always work that way FWIW.

Steve