ATL: IKE Discussion

[Lowpressure]

Well I can see a WNW breifly BUT the key thing here is not to follow the tight inner core as that is weakening(though it seems to be holding steady now as that WNW wobble has shifted the outer eyewall even more over land) and the outer eyewall is trying to take over, so the actual center will probably be quite loose now and as long as that larger eye feature remains in place then it will still take in energy from the south even if it does rake the coast.

With two walls neither being able to become dominant due to land, you could have core collapse.

[Air Force Met]

This is amazing! I agree with the earlier poster that 5 day cones should be done away with. At this point, as most people hit wunderground.com and get this graphic, the Louisiana coastline stands down until the next advisory; the next advisory issues and it's a swing back to Louisiana, (please input any 2 states of your choice) and pretty soon you have no time to do anything because a tank of gas won't last long sitting on the interstate in bumper to bumper traffic and you haven't even left the city you are evacuating from. This is so stressful! Mother Nature has a mind of her own and we just seem to "chase the rabbit". Be safe everyone where ever this may go.

The 5 day can't be done away with. State and local EOC officials use it to determine evacs...etc.

What the uninformed public does with it...or the media...that can't be helped. It kinda like watching most of S2K today with a swing in the models to the west. Most have short term memories and forget this is about the 5th swing...and they will swing again....probably to the right when Ike gets into the Gulf.

[poof121]

What is the fairly high level of vorticity on the tip of the yucatan, and what implications, if any, could it have on Ike's track?

[MBryant]

http://C:\Documents and Settings\pvaughn\Desktop\OrangeCountyStormSurgeMap.pdf

If anybody wishes to post this image, please do.

[cycloneye]

There haved not been obs released for an hour,what indicates to me that plane has returned to base.

[haml8]

AFM, what about the "hook" do you think that we will see this storm ride west to the coast only to go north through SE texas, or do you think it will be more of a WNW hit straight through and out the back..

[clfenwi]

Any guesses on a track change or intensity at 5PM.

I would think they would have to move track further south, especially mid track. They might have final point inland around 28.5N 95W or they may leave it just offshore.

Intesity will generously be set at 70KTS

I certainly don't expect any dramatic changes. Track smoothed to be a little bit more westerly, the final point you suggest seems reasonable.

Adjustments in the intensity forecast only to adjust the initial intensity to around what you suggest. Maybe a corresponding tick downward in the later periods.

[Txdivermom]

I know my house is safely inland, and the only tree in the yard might smash the garage, but not the house. But my wife spent a week w/o electricity during Alicia, and has made it clear she never wants to do that again.

See I guess for me, I'd rather have no electricity (as long as we have generator power to keep the freezer and fridge going) than sit on the freeway. There is no way I'm up for an 8 hour or more drive to DFW. I'll just chill at the house. (well, not really chill, because it will be an over!)

[gatorcane]

one thing is for sure reading through posts today, how come I see several high confidence posts on where Ike is going based on "the model consensus."

South Floridians have learned with Ike that the 5 day projection by models can change and shift BIG TIME. At this point, go with the NHC when it states that it does not know who in the Gulf Coast area will be indicated. That is the truth, the NHC simply does not know!

I agree with AFM expect some more shifts in the days ahead, maybe even back to the Northern GOM. Heck I wouldn't be surprised if models keeps shifting left missing the US all together.

Many of us on this board fall in the 3 day cone watching category. That is most of us can complete or hurricane prep plans within 3 days. So in my opinion, unless you have a reason looking at the 3-5 day cone and extended ranges, stay with focusing on the 3 day cone instead and don't even bother looking beyond that...it may reduce your anxiety

[HouTXmetro]

Still pretty warm, but cloud tops are trying to cool and center still offshore.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-avn.html

[Weatherfreak14]

Looks like the wobble to the WNW is over and looks to be due west oncer again. Although it will prolly wobble aginst the coastline.

[Lowpressure]

one thing is for sure reading through posts today, how come I see several high confidence posts on where Ike is going based on "the model consensus."

South Floridians have learned with Ike that the 5 day projection by models can change and shift BIG TIME. At this point, go with the NHC when it states that it does not know who in the Gulf Coast area will be indicated. That is the truth, the NHC simply does not know!

I agree with AFM expect some more shifts in the days ahead, maybe even back to the Northern GOM. Heck I wouldn't be surprised if models keeps shifting left missing the US all together.

Agreed, way too much focus put on a point 5 days out that WILL change several times. Everyone in the GOM should watch this. After Fay we should have all learned something.

[gatorcane]

one thing is for sure reading through posts today, how come I see several high confidence posts on where Ike is going based on "the model consensus."

South Floridians have learned with Ike that the 5 day projection by models can change and shift BIG TIME. At this point, go with the NHC when it states that it does not know who in the Gulf Coast area will be indicated. That is the truth, the NHC simply does not know!

I agree with AFM expect some more shifts in the days ahead, maybe even back to the Northern GOM. Heck I wouldn't be surprised if models keeps shifting left missing the US all together.

Many of us on this board fall in the 3 day cone watching category. That is most of us can complete or hurricane prep plans within 3 days. So in my opinion, unless you have a reason looking at the 3-5 day cone and extended ranges, stay with focusing on the 3 day cone instead and don't even bother looking beyond that...it may reduce your anxiety

bump as I made some edits

[AJC3]

http://C:\Documents and Settings\pvaughn\Desktop\OrangeCountyStormSurgeMap.pdf

If anybody wishes to post this image, please do.

LOL...I would but I don't have access to your hard drive.

[HenkL]

Last HDOB was from 1950Z.
They ware flying from a SW turnpoint to the NE at that moment, heading for the center.

[Sabanic]

Ed, what is JB saying... looking at the model that they provide it seems that SETX Texas is on their mind and they are split between SETX and South texas padre etc..

[N2Storms]

[quote="Lowpressure"][quote="gatorcane"]one thing is for sure reading through posts today, how come I see several high confidence posts on where Ike is going based on "the model consensus."

South Floridians have learned with Ike that the 5 day projection by models can change and shift BIG TIME. At this point, go with the NHC when it states that it does not know who in the Gulf Coast area will be indicated. That is the truth, the NHC simply does not know!

I agree with AFM expect some more shifts in the days ahead, maybe even back to the Northern GOM. Heck I wouldn't be surprised if models keeps shifting left missing the US all together.[/quote]
Agreed, way too much focus put on a point 5 days out that WILL change several times. Everyone in the GOM should watch this. After Fay we should have all learned something.[/quote]



Not really...in case you didn't know, the forecast from here on out is pretty "straight forward"...no reason to assume that Ike hasn't already locked in his final destination

[MBryant]

http://C:\Documents and Settings\pvaughn\Desktop\OrangeCountyStormSurgeMap.pdf

If anybody wishes to post this image, please do.

LOL...I would but I don't have access to your hard drive.

That's strange, it's the link I found by googling Orange County Surge Map.

[Air Force Met]

AFM, what about the "hook" do you think that we will see this storm ride west to the coast only to go north through SE texas, or do you think it will be more of a WNW hit straight through and out the back..

A blend. Maybe 300-305 towards the end.

Track will shift west this advisory...and probably the next two. Fully expect models to settle near CRP-VCT...then gradually work their way back towards middle-upper Texas coast over the next 3 days.

[MBryant]

http://C:\Documents and Settings\pvaughn\Desktop\OrangeCountyStormSurgeMap.pdf

If anybody wishes to post this image, please do.

LOL...I would but I don't have access to your hard drive.

That's strange, it's the link I found by googling Orange County Surge Map.