ATL: IKE Discussion

[mpic]

http://C:\Documents and Settings\pvaughn\Desktop\OrangeCountyStormSurgeMap.pdf

If anybody wishes to post this image, please do.

LOL...I would but I don't have access to your hard drive.

Pulled me back in while I was eating a sandwich

Found this link to several surge maps including that one

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lch/tropical/maps/StormSurge/

[Lowpressure]

one thing is for sure reading through posts today, how come I see several high confidence posts on where Ike is going based on "the model consensus."

South Floridians have learned with Ike that the 5 day projection by models can change and shift BIG TIME. At this point, go with the NHC when it states that it does not know who in the Gulf Coast area will be indicated. That is the truth, the NHC simply does not know!

I agree with AFM expect some more shifts in the days ahead, maybe even back to the Northern GOM. Heck I wouldn't be surprised if models keeps shifting left missing the US all together.

Agreed, way too much focus put on a point 5 days out that WILL change several times. Everyone in the GOM should watch this. After Fay we should have all learned something.

Not really...in case you didn't know, the forecast from here on out is pretty "straight forward"...no reason to assume that Ike hasn't already locked in his final destination

Then you must be wiser than the NHC, because they are not sure.

...MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
WHICH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. ACCORDINGLY...IT
IS STILL MUCH TOO SOON TO KNOW WHAT PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST
COULD BE IMPACTED BY IKE.

[KWT]

With two walls neither being able to become dominant due to land, you could have core collapse.

Yep that may well be what happens with neither eyewall quite able to dominate until this has gone through Cuba...

Make no doubts about it though, any prolonged core issues will get resolved at some point in the gulf and obviously when it does then its got good conditions and warm waters to deepen as much as it wants really, at least till it hits slightly lower heat content on the final approach but its going to have a good 72-96hrs over the gulf which is more then enough time to get ike back upto major strength no matter how rough the core is...

[HURAKAN]

Very impressive picture.

[haml8]

Ed, what is JB saying... looking at the model that they provide it seems that SETX Texas is on their mind and they are split between SETX and South texas padre etc..

On the video, he barely mentioned Ike except to draw a very quick line towards Louisiana, but it wasn't a thoughtfully drawn out line. (I know the difference). No column update since early morning. Yesterday he was (not) liking Louisiana, and the inference from the quickie line was still Louisiana, but it is almost like he doesn't want to make a forecast.


I'd think, if it were coming anywhere near Houston, in his opinion, he wouldn't be shy about writing about it. Ditto any big coastal city, New York, Philly, Miami, NOLA, Houston. He usually isn't shy about pushing that.

Thanks Ed, I think you are right.. If they had a more concise idea they would be tooting their horn (not meant as a derogatory point). Maybe all of his clients that are oil based are keeping him busy in meetings, hence the evacs today.

[rtd2]

one thing is for sure reading through posts today, how come I see several high confidence posts on where Ike is going based on "the model consensus."

South Floridians have learned with Ike that the 5 day projection by models can change and shift BIG TIME. At this point, go with the NHC when it states that it does not know who in the Gulf Coast area will be indicated. That is the truth, the NHC simply does not know!

I agree with AFM expect some more shifts in the days ahead, maybe even back to the Northern GOM. Heck I wouldn't be surprised if models keeps shifting left missing the US all together.

Agreed, way too much focus put on a point 5 days out that WILL change several times. Everyone in the GOM should watch this. After Fay we should have all learned something.

Not really...in case you didn't know, the forecast from here on out is pretty "straight forward"...no reason to assume that Ike hasn't already locked in his final destination

ouch...

[gboudx]

Here's a good discussion from the DFW NWS on the potential steering of Ike later in the week.

AS FOR THE WEEKEND AND HURRICANE IKE. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS
BEGINNING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE WESTERLIES SAGGING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL DEEPEN WITH TIME
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW RESULTING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MID WEEK.
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
TROUGH...IT BECOMES MORE POSITIVELY TILTED...THUS STRENGTHENING OUR
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY FRIDAY AS HURRICANE IKE CLOSES IN ON THE
TEXAS COAST. COME THIS WEEKEND...THE WESTERN TROUGH EJECTS OUT AND
SHOULD PICK UP IKE AND MOVE HIM NORTHWARD THROUGH TEXAS AND INTO THE
MID OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY MONDAY.

DUE TO THE RAPID FIRE CHANGES IN THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS...WE/VE
DECIDE TO STICK CLOSE TO TPC TRAJECTORY FORECASTS FOR NOW. THIS
WILL CHANGE AS NEW MODELS RUNS COME IN AND TCP CHANGES THEIR
FORECASTS. IN SUMMARY...IKE IS COMING AND SHOULD AFFECT NORTH TEXAS
WITH WIND AND RAIN THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER IT/S ACTUAL PATH ACROSS
THE STATE REMAINS THE "BIG QUESTION".

[rtd2]

Very impressive picture.

seen that on TCW last night as ike was hitting....thats a massive wave

[Txdivermom]

AFM, what about the "hook" do you think that we will see this storm ride west to the coast only to go north through SE texas, or do you think it will be more of a WNW hit straight through and out the back..

A blend. Maybe 300-305 towards the end.

Track will shift west this advisory...and probably the next two. Fully expect models to settle near CRP-VCT...then gradually work their way back towards middle-upper Texas coast over the next 3 days.

Gee thx. I like wxman's better, since he said he didn't want to project it to go over his house. LOL!!! Looks like you're not saying that about yours.

However, for whatever reason, it seems as though many storms shift eastward from the track. Eastward from CRP-VIC isn't good for us.

[KWT]

Yep Hurakan thats real impressive, those waves breaking are the size of multi story buildings, very impressive!

[jasons2k]

AFM, what about the "hook" do you think that we will see this storm ride west to the coast only to go north through SE texas, or do you think it will be more of a WNW hit straight through and out the back..

A blend. Maybe 300-305 towards the end.

Track will shift west this advisory...and probably the next two. Fully expect models to settle near CRP-VCT...then gradually work their way back towards middle-upper Texas coast over the next 3 days.

If PHPBB had an auto-bump feature, I would bump this post every hour for the next 3 days

[smw1981]

one thing is for sure reading through posts today, how come I see several high confidence posts on where Ike is going based on "the model consensus."

South Floridians have learned with Ike that the 5 day projection by models can change and shift BIG TIME. At this point, go with the NHC when it states that it does not know who in the Gulf Coast area will be indicated. That is the truth, the NHC simply does not know!

I agree with AFM expect some more shifts in the days ahead, maybe even back to the Northern GOM. Heck I wouldn't be surprised if models keeps shifting left missing the US all together.

Agreed, way too much focus put on a point 5 days out that WILL change several times. Everyone in the GOM should watch this. After Fay we should have all learned something.

Not really...in case you didn't know, the forecast from here on out is pretty "straight forward"...no reason to assume that Ike hasn't already locked in his final destination

Are you serious? Surely you are being sarcastic....

[srainhoutx]

AFM, what about the "hook" do you think that we will see this storm ride west to the coast only to go north through SE texas, or do you think it will be more of a WNW hit straight through and out the back..

A blend. Maybe 300-305 towards the end.

Track will shift west this advisory...and probably the next two. Fully expect models to settle near CRP-VCT...then gradually work their way back towards middle-upper Texas coast over the next 3 days.

If PHPBB had an auto-bump feature, I would bump this post every hour for the next 3 days

Agreed. AFM has talked about this for several days. Worth repeating again.

[deltadog03]

AS FOR THE WEEKEND AND HURRICANE IKE. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS
BEGINNING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE WESTERLIES SAGGING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL DEEPEN WITH TIME
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW RESULTING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MID WEEK.
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
TROUGH...IT BECOMES MORE POSITIVELY TILTED...THUS STRENGTHENING OUR
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY FRIDAY AS HURRICANE IKE CLOSES IN ON THE
TEXAS COAST. COME THIS WEEKEND...THE WESTERN TROUGH EJECTS OUT AND
SHOULD PICK UP IKE AND MOVE HIM NORTHWARD

What a great disco from the guys and gals from FWD...(Thanks for posting that) I miss there disco's.. Anyway, like I posted in the model thread...IMO this trof is not getting enough attention. This incoming is really what breaks that ridge down too pull ike up. An extreme case is what the 00z gfs showed last night. Euro showing the hook north as well. Tell me this dosn't remind yall of rita.

[deltadog03]

They will prolly leave a 65kt cane for now....

[N2Storms]

[quote="smw1981"][quote="N2Storms"][quote="Lowpressure"][quote="gatorcane"]one thing is for sure reading through posts today, how come I see several high confidence posts on where Ike is going based on "the model consensus."

South Floridians have learned with Ike that the 5 day projection by models can change and shift BIG TIME. At this point, go with the NHC when it states that it does not know who in the Gulf Coast area will be indicated. That is the truth, the NHC simply does not know!

I agree with AFM expect some more shifts in the days ahead, maybe even back to the Northern GOM. Heck I wouldn't be surprised if models keeps shifting left missing the US all together.[/quote]
Agreed, way too much focus put on a point 5 days out that WILL change several times. Everyone in the GOM should watch this. After Fay we should have all learned something.[/quote]



Not really...in case you didn't know, the forecast from here on out is pretty "straight forward"...no reason to assume that Ike hasn't already locked in his final destination[/quote]


Are you serious? Surely you are being sarcastic....[/quote]



I was just repeating what a couple of other posters have been saying all day...FWIW, I happen to agree with the thinking that Ike is Texas bound w / a slight chance for a SW Louisiana landfall but what I don't agree with is this notion that the forecast is somehow etched in stone and is so straight forward. Alod to Mets seemed to think it was pretty straight forward Friday and Saturday but look how things have changed since then. I just find it amusing that anyone could think that any forecast, much less, one dealing with a Tropical Cyclone, is straight forward.

[Sabanic]

AS FOR THE WEEKEND AND HURRICANE IKE. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS
BEGINNING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE WESTERLIES SAGGING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL DEEPEN WITH TIME
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW RESULTING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MID WEEK.
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
TROUGH...IT BECOMES MORE POSITIVELY TILTED...THUS STRENGTHENING OUR
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY FRIDAY AS HURRICANE IKE CLOSES IN ON THE
TEXAS COAST. COME THIS WEEKEND...THE WESTERN TROUGH EJECTS OUT AND
SHOULD PICK UP IKE AND MOVE HIM NORTHWARD

What a great disco from the guys and gals from FWD...(Thanks for posting that) I miss there disco's.. Anyway, like I posted in the model thread...IMO this trof is not getting enough attention. This incoming is really what breaks that ridge down too pull ike up. An extreme case is what the 00z gfs showed last night. Euro showing the hook north as well. Tell me this dosn't remind yall of rita.

What gets me is that many of the models are showing a hook offshore prior to landfall

[MBryant]

AFM, what about the "hook" do you think that we will see this storm ride west to the coast only to go north through SE texas, or do you think it will be more of a WNW hit straight through and out the back..

A blend. Maybe 300-305 towards the end.

Track will shift west this advisory...and probably the next two. Fully expect models to settle near CRP-VCT...then gradually work their way back towards middle-upper Texas coast over the next 3 days.

Like Rita?

[Pearl River]

From LIX discussion this afternoon:

THE LONG TERM IS MUCH MORE COMPLICATED OWING TO THE FACT THAT
MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING SIGNIFICANT SPREAD CONCERNING THE
TRACK OF HURRICANE IKE. THE OFFICIAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST
INDICATES THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BYPASS IKE
WELL TO THE NORTH...BUT STILL CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
ALLOWING A PERIOD OF NORTHWEST MOTION INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. THE RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL THEN FORCE IKE
ON A MORE WESTERLY COURSE WITH AN EXTRAPOLATED LANDFALL SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE ARE STILL LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE DIFFERENT MODELS AS WELL AS FROM RUN TO RUN FOR INDIVIDUAL
MODELS. WITH THAT SAID...TRACK FORECAST ERRORS CAN BE SIGNIFICANT
ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE AND IT IS SIMPLY TOO SOON TO SAY WITH ANY
CONFIDENCE WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL LOCATION WILL BE.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT POINT OF LANDFALL...THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST MODELS BRING IKE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST FOR AT LEAST
FRINGE EFFECTS TO BE FELT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. IN ADDITION TO
HIGHER POPS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EAST OR
SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES AND WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS IKE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.

[jasons2k]

Hi Delta - It does remind me of Rita but one thing to notice is the trough is positively tilted. It will break down the ridge but not evaporate it.

Using the reasoning of AFM and some others, I just don't bite yet on the far left track either.

I still think Corpus to Sabine Pass. SW LA is not out of the question IMO but I think Ike will beat the clock and pass 92-93W before any kind of right turn or hook will commence.

PS - thanks for the AFD-FWD. They are great. They often have a better handle on than tropics than some of the coastal offices IMO.