ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[KWT]

Yeah I remember Bertha when it came off the ITCZ looked a little rough for a time without much convection but what about Derek's point that ther eis no low level convergence at all in the region?

Actually this looks like a sort of poor mans version of Bertha right now if you look at the loops

[WmE]

Wxman57 do think think 94L will pull a dean and felix on us?

You mean like another Category 5 landfall?

[boca]

Wxman57 do think think 94L will pull a dean and felix on us?

You mean like another Category 5 landfall?

No sorry I meant path not intensity.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree with Wxman57. This doe's have a good cirulation and has detached from the itcz, but by doing so it killed off its converence that was feeding its convection. Now that a LLC is forming I expect that convection could reform later today.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wxman57 do think think 94L will pull a dean and felix on us?

.0001%

[KWT]

If it does make it into the Caribbean odds strongly favor a Panhandle westward landfall, I know its a long way off yet and I personally think its going to end up a bit further east then many of the current models expect but past July storms that form fairly close the Eastern Caribbean do tend to go on to threaten that region.

[boca]

Wxman57 do think think 94L will pull a dean and felix on us?

.0001%

Matt I was talking about 94L making to the Yucatan not a cat 5.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I still think I see a broad rotation center (what level, I don't know) near 12ºN, 41ºW, with heaviest showers still tied to the ITCZ.

In my unofficial and amaturish estimate, 50% sounds like a decent probability for development.

Looking at GFDL run, and 500 mb height progs from Canadian, GFS and Euro, I'd expect if this does form, a somewhat Charley 2004 like path (not saying intensity), with a turn North across Cuba, seems possible. No idea if the turn North if East or West or towards the Peninsula, but I'd say anyway from near Pensacola to Hatteras should keep a wary eye, along with residents of the Greater Antilles, and people in the Lesser Antilles, especially, should be planning preliminary actions, maybe stocking on things that will get scarce when official watches and warnings go up.

I remember how hard it was to find gas and bottled water when the warning for Rita went up.


Disclaimer: I think, as an amateur, I'm pretty good. Like the best left guard in a junior varsity football game. But I'd be crushed if I played in the NFL. So, take it with a grain. Unofficial, and positively not endorsed by Storm2K. And lets recall that Derek and WxMan57 are professional players, Derek the first round draft pick, WxMan57 the crafty veteran, like Strahan in his final season, except I doubt he is retiring. If they say I'm wrong, and bull rush towards the QB, odds are he is going to be sacked.


Please use your imagination, and pretend the disclaimer is sort of greenish and italicized.


Hmmmm, tags work on this thread. Derek's Q&A thread, not so well.

'amaturish' missing the letter 'e'.

Ed do you see a trough coming in which would cause the turn around Cuba?

Yes


A little more subtle on the Canadian, but a gap between the ridge towards the Panhandle


Euro suggests a weakness near Florida


Too early to guess if turn North happens in Eastern Gulf, Western Atlantic or right over Florida, and above disclaimer still applies.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If it does make it into the Caribbean odds strongly favor a Panhandle westward landfall, I know its a long way off yet and I personally think its going to end up a bit further east then many of the current models expect but past July storms that form fairly close the Eastern Caribbean do tend to go on to threaten that region.

I disagree, I think Pensacola vicinity Eastward, but I'm not a doctor, but I play one on TV (bad US TV advert reference).

[KWT]

Its hard to tell whether it takes a straight westerly path or more to the WNW, that will be key as to where it goes and where it will effect and with the Caribbean even a 5 degree change in the expected path may make the difference between one island missing and another getting smashed.

I think even if it misses to the south this one is going to get close enough to many of the big islands to firstly cause problems for the storm and secondly to cause major problems for the islands.

Ed, yeah each set-up is different but looking at history thats where there is a better cluster, esp from western panhandle to LA.

[Extremeweatherguy]

If it does make it into the Caribbean odds strongly favor a Panhandle westward landfall, I know its a long way off yet and I personally think its going to end up a bit further east then many of the current models expect but past July storms that form fairly close the Eastern Caribbean do tend to go on to threaten that region.

Well that really depends. Storms that enter the southern Caribbean do tend to favor a panhandle west landfall (examples being Ivan, Dennis and Emily with an exception being Charley), but storms that enter the Caribbean north of Barbados can be a threat to just about anyone...including the east coast of the United States (examples being Hugo, David, and the 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane with an exception being Gilbert).

[Derek Ortt]

Certainly looks more impressive to me today than it did yesterday. Could be upgraded this afternoon, tomorrow at the latest.

chris... we don't have the low-level dynamics yet. This looks more like Felix two days before it formed (though not quite as bad as there was surface divergence)

if this does develop, its now likely to be slow, IMO

[wxman57]

Wxman57 do think think 94L will pull a dean and felix on us?

I was just looking at the long-range mean steering level winds and I'm not so sure it'll make the NW turn near the NE Caribbean. If it's going to follow in Bertha's wake, it'll have to turn as it approaches the Caribbean. Once in the Caribbean on Saturday, its path to the north may be blocked by a large area of high pressure over Florida and the Bahamas. That might protect Florida from a direct path toward the SE peninsula, but it could shove the system westward through the Caribbean, perhaps reaching the NW Caribbean on Tuesday. At that time, the ridge over Florida may be weakening and another ridge is forecast to develop over Texas. Florida may not be protected for a northward turn across Cuba by a relatively weak system, or it could track westward into Mexico.

One thing I see in the Caribbean is VERY STRONG easterly winds at 850mb (35-40 kts). That's not good for strengthening should this system take that path. So it may struggle a bit crossing the Caribbean if it takes that route.

Lots of ifs and maybes with this system. Once it develops and is initialized better by the models we should have a little better idea where it might track in the long term.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Is it just me, or does it appear as though 94L may be trying to wrap some of the convection to its south up into its eastern side?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[gatorcane]

There is a nice H pressure ridge protecting the SE including FL and the GOM up until about 192 hours at which the steering currents become SE to NW. That is the ridge breaking down that Ed is probably referring to I think. This setup would allow a system traversing the Caribbean to make a turn towards the NW and N.

Ridge over SE CONUS:


Ridge replaced by a weakness and a SW to NW steering currents:

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

xman57 do you still think the system will have a general wnw track toward the NE Caribbean?

[KWT]

wxman57, yeah the shear forecasted is still pretty strong though we will have to see whether or not that continues to be progged, at least uptill about 70W shear looks pretty light, however I think this system may get a little disrupted if its close to Hispaniola. I know thats a long way off but I've got a sneaky feeling that island may get a full blown hit by at least the north side of the system if not more.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'll go out on another limb as an amateur and unofficial poster not endorsed in any way by S2K-


I am not sure how strong this will get by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles, but it is July, Equatorial South America is still plenty warm, the heat low is in full effect, and strong low level Easterlies mean this stays steady state, maybe even weakens a tad, from the islands until the longitude of about Cuba, between about 75 and 80ºW. See July 2003 storm Hurricane Claudette, which struggled in the Eastern Caribbean.

Probably just shy of hurricane strength when it reaches the islands, and stays there through the Eastern Caribbean barring land interaction. Especially Hispaniola.


Again, unofficial, and amateurish.

[orion]

I am still not seeing the lower level dynamics needed. Last evening the system split itself and the convection started firing to the north and another part of the system went to the south. Both of these areas have the upper level divergence...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dvg.GIF

... but the lower level convergence is all on the 'lower piece' and pretty much nonexistent on 94L...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8conv.GIF

Not sure that much is going to happen until that lower level situation improves.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Convection is starting to refire on the northern part of the circulation. the area of convection that was thought by some to be part of the ITCZ is now being pulled into the eastern half of the circulation. Looks like maybe a TD by 5 if this all continues!