ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[alienstorm]

The concerning part is the dry air to the south and southwest of the system, additionally the southeast inflow is being interrupted by 93L. Once it generates further distance 92L moving at 15 -20 while 93L is moving at 10 mph, then we may see more development.

Unless we start seeing inflow from the south it is not going to develop, also it seems that the convection to the east is now dimishing and the circulation center may be winding down and become even looser than it is now. It really looks like 92L won't develop at least for another 48 - 72 hours if it can survive. Survive because it may be absorb by 93L indirectly.

[HURAKAN]

Unless 92L travels eastward and 93L continues westward, I don't see how one can absorb the other.

[gatorcane]

Unless 92L travels eastward and 93L continues westward, I don't see how one can absorb the other.

We could see two systems developing moving in the same general direction (rather than one absorbing the other).

It may get interesting indeed.

[Honeyko]

92 and 93 are more than far enough apart not to interfere with each other -- unless 92 stalls and 93 rides right up it butt. I expect 92 to begin moving shortly, eliminating that scenario.

[KWT]

Yeah they are well apart from each other, a good 20 degrees in latitude in fact, indeed I'm not sure 93L is a factor at all in terms of strength for 92L, there is a real big distance between the two, though the ITCZ is active between the two systems.

[Ed Mahmoud]

92L still looks bad, but not as awful as this morning...

[HURAKAN]

92L still looks bad, but not as awful as this morning...

Agree.



I was expecting to see no convection by the afternoon.

[KWT]

Looks very linear to me though this time from W-E, wonder what factor is causing it to have that presentation?!

[Blown Away]

It appears the system is moving more NW than WNW. The GFDL & GFS tracks kind of showed this.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[Scorpion]

Well the Euro still shows something out of it so maybe it's not dead yet.

[SouthFLTropics]

It appears the system is moving more NW than WNW. The GFDL & GFS tracks kind of showed this.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

I agree with you Blown Away...It does appear to be heading more NW...Maybe the GFDL and GFS are on to something here...only time will tell. This show is far from over...right now it could go either way I think...Poof or Explode.

SouthFLTropics

[gatorcane]

well wind shear appears to be on the decrease ahead of 92L for hundreds of miles. Looks like if 92L and 93L stay north of the islands the environment is more favorable then a Caribbean runner (just the opposite of last year).

The tropical atlantic is quickly becoming favorable for tropical cyclone formation just in time for the start of the CV season which runs from Aug 15 to about the last week in September.

King TUTT appears to be backing off as it ruled in July. Things are going to get interesting in a hurry I'm afraid.

[deltadog03]

actually, it appears to be getting better....As yall have said, looks much better than this morning. I think there is some rotation, but the inflow looks to be improving slowly as well.

[Weatherboy1]

Seems to me the center is elongated E-W. In fact, the first early vis shots appeared to show a center a bit to the SE of the main blob of convection, which then faded away. Long story short, it looks to be still organizing to me, but once we establish a dominant center -- if we do -- 92 could organize pretty quickly.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yeah, the invest is definitely starting to look better this afternoon. I think 92L may very well still try to become a depression within the next 48 hours if the slow organization and increase in convection continues to take place.

[gatorcane]

Latest showing 92L on the left and 93L behind it.

92L continues to organize this afternoon as it heads WNW:

[KWT]

Well at least the convection is now starting to become better established and there is some deeper returns developing as well. Still got quite a way to go though IMO.

[HURAKAN]

For 92L:



Doing much better than expected. I think I use DMAX and DMIN too much!!!

[coreyl]

Could this enter the gulf? What does everybody think of the possibility of it getting into the gulf?

[HURAKAN]

Could this enter the gulf? What does everybody think of the possibility of it getting into the gulf?

If it follows what the computer tracks are saying, yes.