ATL OMAR: Remnant Low - Discussion

[MiamiensisWx]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 160306
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OMAR ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1100 PM AST WED OCT 15 2008

...OMAR BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE VIRGIN AND
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN/MAARTEN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST.
BARTHELEMY...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND ANGUILLA. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PUERTO RICO...AND ALSO FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. KITTS AND NEVIS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE..WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND
MONTSERRAT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES...
45 KM...SOUTHEAST OF ST. CROIX AND ABOUT 105 MILES...165 KM...
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ST. MARTIN.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF OMAR WILL PASS JUST
EAST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND NEAR THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...
185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OMAR IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS OMAR MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM. ST. CROIX RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39
MPH...63 KM/HR...WITH A WIND GUST OF 59 MPH...94 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.

OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20 INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
FOR PUERTO RICO. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF OMAR. COASTAL STORM
SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COASTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. IN ADDITION...OMAR
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEST- AND
SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND DAMAGE TO
COASTAL STRUCTURES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...17.4 N...64.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB.

INTERMEDIATES ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM AND 300 AM AST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

[Sanibel]

Storm behavior suggests further intensification.

[wxman57]

Still not much wind at St Croix as of about 20 minutes ago:

TISX| |160253|75.0F|73.9F|96.5%|010|034|051|29.43|8|OVC|Mist
TISX| |160201|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|020|024|040|29.55|999|OVC|Heavy Rain , Mist
TISX| |160201|75.0F|73.0F|94.2%|020|024|040|29.55|999|OVC|Heavy Rain , Mist

Wind 010 at 34 kts gusting 51 kts at 0253Z. Wind radii don't extend far on the NW side of the eye.

[Gustywind]

Repeating the 1100 PM AST position...17.4 N...64.5 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds...115 mph.
Minimum central pressure...967 mb.

Damn a vigorous cat 3, could it be close to cat 4 just on St Marteen hope NO, that will be dramatic for them...

[wxman57]

This will be the biggest hit since Luis 1995 if the eastern eyewall traverses a portion of Sint Maarten...

The eastern eyewall may pass just west of that island.

[wxman57]

As of 0130Z HRD wind analysis, the strongest winds are in the SE quadrant. To the NW (St. Croix side) the max winds are 75 kts (85 mph) in that quadrant:

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2 ... tour02.png

[CrazyC83]

I thought Lenny made a direct hit as a strong Cat 4 (almost Cat 5)?

[Derek Ortt]

eyewall now over extreme eastern St. Croix

[JonathanBelles]

OMAR IS UPGRADED TO A 100-KT MAJOR HURRICANE...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.

From the discussion.

[Cainer]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 981.1mb/ 77.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.8 7.0

Thank goodness were not seeing that 7.0 as the CI#!

[CrazyC83]

OMAR IS UPGRADED TO A 100-KT MAJOR HURRICANE...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.

From the discussion.

That seems to be indeed the case. SFMR was 107 kt and FL winds were 118 kt, which is 106 kt at the surface. I think they went 100 kt on the pressure, since the winds support a solid 105 kt.

[CrazyC83]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 981.1mb/ 77.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.8 7.0

Thank goodness were not seeing that 7.0 as the CI#!

That 7.0 suggests rapid intensification is expected (underway in this case) and it is capable of becoming a strong Cat 4 or 5.

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

I thought Lenny made a direct hit as a strong Cat 4 (almost Cat 5)?

[Sanibel]

The eye deformities were intensification jerks (without track wobbles).


Slight eye clearing. Torrential burst on Anguilla/St Martin:

[HURAKAN]

[Sanibel]

Maybe a slight wobble more N. I think we'll miss Anguilla to the west now and go nearer to Anegada Passage where there are no islands. Fortunate track for a category 3.

Losing east side on PR long range radar.

From the radar image I think the eye might be more round at the surface and sheared at the top meaning the east tip of St Croix may have taken the worst west side inner eyewall.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[carolina_73]

Yeah...looks like Anguilla is going to luck out. Omar is taking the best track possible for least amount of damage. I just read that Dog Island is uninhabited. That is some good news because it looks to take a direct hit.

[CrazyC83]

Dropsonde confirmation: pressure down to 960mb.