ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[KWT]

Yeah you can see the inflow starting to now come from over the sea, will probably a couple of hours before we notice a real difference on the eastern side as the moist air will have to work its way up from the south.

[wxman57]

wxman57 what would you estimate is the current movement?
I think if it goes to the south its the worst case situation that can happen, would put the eyewall pretty close to Bro...

Hard to tell with the center now obscured. But I don't see any significant west motion. Looks on track. As a storm organizes the center wobbles all over for brief periods, nothing more.

[wxmann_91]

I looked over the data again... models prog the diffluence aloft to strengthen tonight. Coupled with the diurnal maximum, tonight may be the only chance at RI, even with the shearing influence of the ULL to the south (which I may have overlooked a little). The system still looks pretty crappy right now, however, and it's moving at a much faster clip than expected. The environment looks to be gold though 48+ hr but this may make landfall sooner (looks like around 36 hr from now). Needless to say my Cat 4 call looks to be overdone, but Cat 1-2 is still possible.

[jeff]

Dolly sure looks to have quite a large wind field... this could add to the storm surge potential for the strike area to the right of where center goes inland... not sure what the lower Tx coast storm surge multiplier is but I would expect it to be similar but perhaps a little less than the MS coast area...

One lesson I learned during Isadore back in 02 was that she generate quite a surge due to the size of her wind field... max winds we got at best were in the 50-60 mph range as she never regained hurricane status after coming back out of Mexico entering the GOM, but in Biloxi we experience the second highest surge since Camille, with about a 8-9 foot surge in West Biloxi, quite unexpected.. I think the predictions were in the 5-6 foot range... I sat in my front yard in a lawn chair for most of the event and watched the surge roll in and deposit the Collesium pier in front of my house.. first time since Camille a surge reached the sea wall in my neighborhood, and from a tropical storm.. unfortunately Katrina is now our benchmark

for storm surge...

I think the high end cat 1 surge would be around 6 feet...may be a little higher in the mouth of the Rio Grande.

[Dean4Storms]

If Dolly builds a core overnight of deep convection she'll take off IMHO.

How tight is the pressure gradient expected to be between Dolly and our SE High. I would expect quite a ramp up in gradient and maybe a surprise surge/winds to the North and NE of her center at landfall extending well up the TX coast.

[Air Force Met]

Wow, moving straight west now. That was pretty unexpected huh?

Actually it's not moving straight west. You can't measure storm motion accurately from the floater loops. Storms never move in a straight line and you'll drive yourself and everyone else nuts if you report every wobble. Look at the movement over time, like between advisories, and you'll have a better view of the storms true motion.

Well...the motion b/w the 5PM advisory and the 8PM advisory is due west. Both latitudes are 23.1N.

The two passes (albeit at a higher altitude) also show that it has moved west.
First pass with lowest pressure at 23'01"N 091'36"W
Second pass with lowest pressure at 23'04"N 92'05"W

So...its not just from looking at the floater...

[cpdaman]

Dolly sure looks to have quite a large wind field... this could add to the storm surge potential for the strike area to the right of where center goes inland... not sure what the lower Tx coast storm surge multiplier is but I would expect it to be similar but perhaps a little less than the MS coast area...

One lesson I learned during Isadore back in 02 was that she generate quite a surge due to the size of her wind field... max winds we got at best were in the 50-60 mph range as she never regained hurricane status after coming back out of Mexico entering the GOM, but in Biloxi we experience the second highest surge since Camille, with about a 8-9 foot surge in West Biloxi, quite unexpected.. I think the predictions were in the 5-6 foot range... I sat in my front yard in a lawn chair for most of the event and watched the surge roll in and deposit the Collesium pier in front of my house.. first time since Camille a surge reached the sea wall in my neighborhood, and from a tropical storm.. unfortunately Katrina is now our benchmark for storm surge...

I think that's a great point and something that most people may not comprehend larger size storms of moderate intensity can create bigger storm surges than stronger more compact one's. Of course there are some that have the worst of both worlds.

[jeff]

Wow, moving straight west now. That was pretty unexpected huh?

Actually it's not moving straight west. You can't measure storm motion accurately from the floater loops. Storms never move in a straight line and you'll drive yourself and everyone else nuts if you report every wobble. Look at the movement over time, like between advisories, and you'll have a better view of the storms true motion.

Well...the motion b/w the 5PM advisory and the 8PM advisory is due west. Both latitudes are 23.1N.

The two passes (albeit at a higher altitude) also show that it has moved west.
First pass with lowest pressure at 23'01"N 091'36"W
Second pass with lowest pressure at 23'04"N 92'05"W

So...its not just from looking at the floater...

TUTT theory, AFM!

[KWT]

Yep I do agree Dean4Storms I think it already has a sort of core of storms just waiting for that one massive burst to occur with those cold cloud tops and we will be on our way, with deep convection still flaring up I think its only a matter of time before the inflow is not so much a problem.

[HurricaneRobert]

NHC has forecast the track well. Since it moved a little bit north across the Yucatan, this thing hasn't deviated much from the path. It doesn't look like its going way up the coast.

[Sanibel]

Better outflow and convection coverage.

Recovering from land, cool water and ULL.

[Air Force Met]

TUTT theory, AFM!

Yep...it decided to go into the left lane!

Inside joke guys...I had a feeling earlier today this was going to hook a left due to the TUTT.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Even so Dolly has much better convection and outflow, the recon is not finding anything strong. In fact the winds are lower then they where this morning. Hard to believe.

[Smurfwicked]

Well...the motion b/w the 5PM advisory and the 8PM advisory is due west. Both latitudes are 23.1N.

The two passes (albeit at a higher altitude) also show that it has moved west.
First pass with lowest pressure at 23'01"N 091'36"W
Second pass with lowest pressure at 23'04"N 92'05"W

So...its not just from looking at the floater...

Thanks for pointing that out, because although I was in fact going by a floater loop it was consistent over multiple frames therefor I thought it out before even mentioning this.

[cheezyWXguy]

TUTT theory, AFM!

Yep...it decided to go into the left lane!

Inside joke guys...I had a feeling earlier today this was going to hook a left due to the TUTT.

Looks like its trying to move back wnw though...and I think that the bands developing to the north and northwest of the center might suggest a movement in that direction in a few hours? I believe that is what happened yesterday, and the bands pointed in the direction the storm would eventually move.

[KWT]

AFM, will that left hook have any major effect on the longer term track?

Matt, I think we are just going to have to wait for the surface winds to catch up with the deepening of the system in the last few hours.

[HarlequinBoy]

jeff do you think there willbe any major Evacs if this system really ramps up in the next 12hrs, or is there not really the time. i hope we don't have a set-up where we have a rapidly strengthening hurricane with people really only having one full day to get prepared.

There is no time...call for evacs and have people stuck on the freeways when the storm moves ashore. If it really ramps up on Tuesday the plan it to clear the barrier islands and shelter inland out of the surge zone. Luckily landfall location is very unpopulated...although to be on the safe side I would leave SPI early Tuesday.

But Corpus and Brownsville are pretty populated. I doubt they should/would evac since they aren't on the coast but they should prepare for strong winds imo.

[jeff]

Even so Dolly has much better convection and outflow, the recon is not finding anything strong. In fact the winds are lower then they where this morning. Hard to believe.

While the outflow is very good...the storm will take time to consolidate...if it ever does. It is a large storm...but I think some are confusing the vast upper level outflow as part of the storm surface circulation. The outflow will spread far beyond the adverse conditions

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html
Dolly finally cut off her tail. But, she's still a pretty large storm. Kinda hard to believe that winds are lower than this morning. Maybe Dolly should expose her llc again.

[RL3AO]

1913z VDM: 22 46'N, 90 43'W (22.77N, 90.72W)
0023z VDM: 22 59'N, 91 58'W (22.98N, 91.97W)
Vector between two points: 280 @ 13.7 kt