ATL: IKE Discussion

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wxman57
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#5861 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 08, 2008 6:41 pm

amawea wrote:[One thing that the NHC can't do on their graphics is to add in extra points to demonstrate a true motion at landfall. In this case, a point in between days 4 and 5 close to the latitude of the day 4 point would indicate a NW-NNW motion at landfall. Models do indicate a deepening trof approaching Texas Fri/Sat that should steer Ike northward near landfall.


And that is why I'm still worried about the upper Texas coast. I have two daughters that live in Dickinson, and a son on the north side of Houston. A tendency for storms to turn to the north and northeast seems to exist without a trough when they get north of 28N anyway.[/quote]

I'd be concerned if I were you, too. But I am getting a bit relieved that the track is shifting farther away from Houston with each run.
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#5862 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Sep 08, 2008 6:43 pm

I will not be comfortable until the track is South of Corpus or East of Houston.
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Re:

#5863 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Mon Sep 08, 2008 6:44 pm

fasterdisaster wrote:Latest VDM says Ike no longer has concentric eyewalls, looks like it could be go time.

The storm is still very close to land and the mountains of cuba are still affecting the inflow to the storm.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#5864 Postby expat2carib » Mon Sep 08, 2008 6:51 pm

Message: Damage Assessment underway in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southern Islands of the Bahamas (2:00pm Sept. 8. 2008)

EVENT:
Hurricane Ike affected the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Great Inagua Bahamas Islands on Saturday September 7, 2008. At the time of impact Ike was a Category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. At 2:00pm EDT today (Sept. 8), 2008, the Andros and Ragged Islands in the Bahamas remained under a Tropical Storm warning.

The Jamaican government has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for that island.

Situation Update:
There have been no reports of fatalities or injuries on the Bahamas or Turks and Caicos Islands.The Turks and Caicos Islands have been severely affected and preliminary damage assessment is currently underway.


The Southern island of Inagua sustained significant damage and the other southern islands of such as Mayaguana, Acklins and Crooked island sustained lesser degrees of damage.

BAHAMAS:
Initial reports from Great Inagua indicate the following:
Housing:
Approximately 70 to 80 percent of the houses on Great Inagua have sustained roof damage and approximately 25 per cent sustained major damage.

Electricity Supply:
Island wide power outage has been experienced due to fallen poles

Ports:
Both the airport and the seaport are open.

National Response:
A relief flight with emergencies supplies was scheduled to leave at 12:00 midday for Great Inagua. A second flight is scheduled for Tuesday September 09, 2008

A damage assessment team scheduled to be on the flight today would comprise of social services, health, water and sewage, works and environment and telecommunications experts. Senior government officials are expected to visit the affected areas on Tuesday, September 9, 2008.

Military vessels that were in safe harbor during the passage of Hurricane Ike will be involved in the recovery operations on their return to the Bahamas.

TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
Initial reports from Turks and Caicos Islands indicate the following:

Grand Turk Island
Shelters:
348 people are in shelters.

Housing:
An estimated 90 % of the roofs sustained damage and 20% destroyed.

Health
Grand Turk hospital sustained roof and water damage.

Utilities
Electricity and telephone services are not available because most power lines are down.

Salt Cay
A reconnaissance flight over the island has reported severe flooding in southern part of the Salt Cay and significant damage to homes and buildings.

Water & Electricity
Water and electricity supplies have been interrupted and there is some concern with regard to the public water supplies. Citizens are being encouraged to boil all drinking water.

National Response:
National Damage Assessment and Technical Teams are on the ground in Turks and Caicos Islands conducting preliminary damage assessment.

REGIONAL and Other RESPONSE:
A CDERA six-member damage assessment and needs analysis team arrived in Providenciales , Turks and Caicos Islands today, September 8, 2008. The team is comprised of technical experts in the areas of health, infrastructure, telecommunication, electricty and social services and was deployed from Jamaica, the sub-regional focal point for this area in the CDERA System

The CDERA Coordinating Unit’s Technical Manager for Preparedness and Country Support, Mrs. Andria Grosvenor also arrived in Providenciales at approximately 4:15PM today.
On Tuesday, Sept 9, technical support to the Department of Disaster and Emergencies in the TCI will be strengthened through the arrival of:

• A Disaster Management Officer from the International Federation of Red Cross and Crescent Societies and,

• The National Disaster Coordinator from Saint Lucia
The CDERA CU has on standby a team of military engineers from the Regional Defence Forces to provide support for the TCI. Deployment will be informed by the specific needs requests made by TCI.

The National Emergency Management Organisation in Belize has scheduled a meeting to discuss support for the TCI.

The British Guard Ship the HMS Iron Duke has responded to the emergency and is presently in the Grand Turk providing support to the Department of Disaster and Emergencies

The CARICOM Disaster Relief Unit has been stood down.

CDERA will continue to provide updates as necessary.

Contact Details: The CDERA CU 24hr contact number is 246 425 0386
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Re: Re:

#5865 Postby fasterdisaster » Mon Sep 08, 2008 6:52 pm

6SpeedTA95 wrote:
fasterdisaster wrote:Latest VDM says Ike no longer has concentric eyewalls, looks like it could be go time.

The storm is still very close to land and the mountains of cuba are still affecting the inflow to the storm.

He's moving farther away though on radar. Go time probably was a misleading choice of words, really I just meant possible mild strengthening, I am by no means insinuating or expecting he is going to rapidly intensify.
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Re: Re:

#5866 Postby zeusman » Mon Sep 08, 2008 6:54 pm

6SpeedTA95 wrote:
fasterdisaster wrote:Latest VDM says Ike no longer has concentric eyewalls, looks like it could be go time.

The storm is still very close to land and the mountains of cuba are still affecting the inflow to the storm.



Folks I beg you to get on google earth and fly over the entire country of Cuba. There are no mountains anywhere but the extreme southeaster tip. The entire center and western part of the country has hills that are between 300 and 500 feet high. Try google earth and see for your self. I too had this misconception until Ike came along and I took the time to fly over Cuba via Google Earth
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#5867 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 08, 2008 6:54 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'd be concerned if I were you, too. But I am getting a bit relieved that the track is shifting farther away from Houston with each run.


Wxman what do you think about Ike heading towards Mexico instead of Texas...models keep trending south it seems and the latest GFS puts Ike on the Tx/Mx border. That's a dramatic shift if you ask me.
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#5868 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Sep 08, 2008 6:58 pm

No change to the NHC 8PM track. I don't think they change the track at 8 anyway.
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Re: Re:

#5869 Postby Rod Hagen » Mon Sep 08, 2008 7:01 pm

zeusman wrote:
Folks I beg you to get on google earth and fly over the entire country of Cuba. There are no mountains anywhere but the extreme southeaster tip. The entire center and western part of the country has hills that are between 300 and 500 feet high. Try google earth and see for your self. I too had this misconception until Ike came along and I took the time to fly over Cuba via Google Earth



It is also clear from Google earth that there are a lot of low lying communities in close proximity to the coast that must be copping an absolute hammering as it skirts along it. Cienfuegos, which it is approaching, sits on the shore of a large coastal lake with a sea connection. My heart goes out to everyone along that stretch of shoreline. It must be hell there at present.

Rod
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Re:

#5870 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 08, 2008 7:02 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:No change to the NHC 8PM track. I don't think they change the track at 8 anyway.


not until 11pm EST.....expect a another shift south based on the model trends so far....
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#5871 Postby carversteve » Mon Sep 08, 2008 7:04 pm

Is the red covection in the middle of ike,just off shore the center.?and is it trying to wrap around??
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#5872 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 08, 2008 7:06 pm

Based on the most recent data, I would say 75-80 kt, with the SFMR of 74 kt and FL of 73, combined with the fact the strongest winds are likely on land.
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Re:

#5873 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 08, 2008 7:10 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:I will not be comfortable until the track is South of Corpus or East of Houston.


I agree.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#5874 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 08, 2008 7:11 pm

Image

Image

Image
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#5875 Postby Sabanic » Mon Sep 08, 2008 7:16 pm

tolakram wrote:Image

Image

Image


A couple of more shifts to the left and old Ike's headed for Mexico.
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#5876 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Sep 08, 2008 7:20 pm

Sabanic wrote:
tolakram wrote:Image

Image

Image


A couple of more shifts to the left and old Ike's headed for Mexico.


More like SEVREAL shifts to the left. :darrow:

Image
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Re: ATL IKE: Category 1 - Discussion

#5877 Postby Sabanic » Mon Sep 08, 2008 7:22 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:
Sabanic wrote:
tolakram wrote:Image

Image

Image


A couple of more shifts to the left and old Ike's headed for Mexico.


More like SEVREAL shifts to the left. :darrow:

Image


You are right, and from that graphic Central LA could very easily get right back in the middle of things. Wow!
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Re: Re:

#5878 Postby Ixolib » Mon Sep 08, 2008 7:23 pm

zeusman wrote:Folks I beg you to get on google earth and fly over the entire country of Cuba. There are no mountains anywhere but the extreme southeaster tip. The entire center and western part of the country has hills that are between 300 and 500 feet high. Try google earth and see for your self. I too had this misconception until Ike came along and I took the time to fly over Cuba via Google Earth


It actually amazes me how un-developed that whole southern coastline is. Wouldn't it be even more amazing to find a coastline ANYWHERE in the U.S. that is as equally un-developed!!
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#5879 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Sep 08, 2008 7:25 pm

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=102847&start=5780

Convection trying to Deepen slightly around the center.
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#5880 Postby Cyclenall » Mon Sep 08, 2008 7:31 pm

Can posters please stop quoting posts that have like 3 images to them? It's annoying to scroll through all of it.

What are some of the damage reports coming out of Cuba?
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