NW Australia: Tropical Cyclone Ophelia

[G.B.]

[G.B.]

Bom have just named Ophelia, can a Mod please edit the title of this topic.

[G.B.]

[G.B.]

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 19
Issued at 9:45 pm WDT on Saturday, 1 March 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Cockatoo Island to
Broome.
The Cyclone WARNING between Kuri Bay and Cockatoo Island has been cancelled.

At 9:00 pm WDT Tropical Cyclone Ophelia, Category 1 was estimated to be
210 kilometres west of Kuri Bay and
245 kilometres north of Broome and
moving west southwest at 14 kilometres per hour

Tropical Cyclone Ophelia has developed off the west Kimberley coast and is
expected to maintain a west southwesterly track.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between
Cockatoo Island and Broome for a period tonight or during Sunday morning. The
risk of gales should then decrease from the northeast as the system moves away
from the coast.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Ophelia at 9:00 pm WDT:
.Centre located near...... 15.8 degrees South 122.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 14 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 988 hectoPascals

FESA - State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between Cockatoo Island and Broome should listen for the
next advice.

The next advice will be issued by 1:00 am WDT Sunday 02 March.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[P.K.]

Cat 2 forecast within 12 hours.

WTAU05 APRF 011248
IDW23100
40:3:1:24:16S123E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1243UTC 1 MARCH 2008

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Ophelia was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal eight south [15.8S]
longitude one hundred and twenty two decimal six east [122.6E]
Recent movement : west southwest at 8 knots
Maximum winds : 40 knots
Central pressure: 988 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 35 nautical miles in eastern quadrants increasing to 50 nautical miles in
western quadrants, becoming within 60 nautical miles of the centre after 1800
UTC 01 March.


FORECAST
Maximum winds to 40 knots near the centre increasing to 55 knots by 1200 UTC 02
March.

Winds above 48 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre after 0000 UTC 02 March
with very rough seas and heavy swell.
Winds above 34 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre after 1800 UTC 01 March
with rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 02 March: Within 50 nautical miles of 16.0 south 121.0 east
Central pressure 980 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre
At 1200 UTC 02 March: Within 75 nautical miles of 16.2 south 119.7 east
Central pressure 972 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.


Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 01 March 2008.


WEATHER PERTH

[Chacor]

AXAU01 APRF 011254
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1254 UTC 01/03/2008
Name: Ophelia
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 15.8S
Longitude: 122.6E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [255 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [14 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 988 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 35 nm [65 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 35 nm [65 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm [185 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 02/0000: 16.0S 121.0E: 050 [095]: 050 [095]: 980
+24: 02/1200: 16.2S 119.7E: 075 [140]: 055 [100]: 972
+36: 03/0000: 16.4S 118.2E: 100 [185]: 065 [120]: 966
+48: 03/1200: 17.0S 116.6E: 120 [220]: 075 [140]: 958
+60: 04/0000: 17.3S 114.9E: 150 [280]: 075 [140]: 954
+72: 04/1200: 17.7S 113.4E: 180 [335]: 080 [150]: 950
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Ophelia has developed off the west Kimberley coast. Dvorak
analysis: DT=3.0 based on MET and approximate curved band wrap of 0.7 degrees.
Observations at Adele
Island indicates strong winds in the northeast quadrant as Ophelia moves to the
west southwest.
Shear is likely to remain light to moderate. Sea surface temperatures, although
a few degrees cooler than normal remain above 28C on the forecast track
supporting development to about T5.0 in the next 72 hours.

There is little variation in the model guidance tracks to the west or west
southwest for the next few days under the influence of a persisting mid-level
ridge to the south.

==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 01/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[G.B.]

[HURAKAN]

01/0830 UTC 15.2S 122.8E T3.0/3.0 21S -- South Indian Ocean

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 MAR 2008 Time : 123000 UTC
Lat : 15:27:45 S Lon : 122:29:45 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 / 994.6mb/ 39.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.7 2.7 2.8 3.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -79.4C Cloud Region Temp : -64.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.1T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

35kts-996mb

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/291921Z FEB 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 15.3S 123.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 123.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 15.6S 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 15.9S 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 16.1S 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 16.4S 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 122.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
400 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM ALL AVAILABLE AGENCIES
SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF
AN ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 21S
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO A DEVELOPING LOW TO
MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 21S
IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT WILL BE MARGINAL THROUGH TAU 12, BUT THE OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE STORM TRACKS WESTWARD.
THIS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF
THE STORM. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF
THE NUMERICAL AIDS, WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DUE
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE INFLUENCES. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 291921Z FEB 08
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 291930)
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z AND 020900Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 20
Issued at 12:45 am WDT on Sunday, 2 March 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cockatoo Island to Broome.

At midnight WDT Tropical Cyclone Ophelia, Category 1 was estimated to be
220 kilometres west of Kuri Bay and
245 kilometres north of Broome and
moving west southwest at 11 kilometres per hour

Tropical Cyclone Ophelia has developed off the west Kimberley coast and is
expected to maintain a west southwesterly track.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between
Cockatoo Island and Broome for a period during Sunday morning. The risk of gales
should then decrease from the northeast as the system moves away from the coast.


Details of Tropical Cyclone Ophelia at midnight WDT:
.Centre located near...... 15.8 degrees South 122.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 11 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 988 hectoPascals

FESA - State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between Cockatoo Island and Broome should listen for the
next advice.

The next advice will be issued by 4:00 am WDT Sunday 02 March.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Looking great.

[Tampa_God]

Brilliant Storm I love it! Hopefully it doesn't hit anywhere, espicially if they believe this could become a 3. But looks great!

[HURAKAN]

Weird Ophelia!

[P.K.]

Cat 2 now.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1855 UTC 01/03/2008
Name: Ophelia
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 16.0S
Longitude: 122.1E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [252 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 982 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [37 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [37 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm [37 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [37 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D1.9/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm [185 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 02/0600: 16.4S 120.6E: 055 [100]: 055 [100]: 974
+24: 02/1800: 16.6S 118.9E: 075 [140]: 065 [120]: 968
+36: 03/0600: 17.1S 117.2E: 095 [175]: 075 [140]: 960
+48: 03/1800: 17.6S 115.4E: 115 [215]: 085 [155]: 946
+60: 04/0600: 18.1S 113.7E: 135 [250]: 085 [155]: 946
+72: 04/1800: 18.5S 111.9E: 165 [305]: 085 [155]: 946
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Ophelia continues to develop off the west Kimberley coast.
Dvorak analysis: DT=3.5 based on MET and approximate curved band wrap of 0.9
degrees. Observations at Adele Island winds have eased as Ophelia moves to the
west southwest.
Shear has decreased over the past six hours. Sea surface temperatures, although
a few degrees cooler than normal remain above 28C on the forecast track
supporting development to about T5.0 in the next 48-72 hours.

There is little variation in the model guidance tracks to the west or west
southwest for the next few days under the influence of a persisting mid-level
ridge to the south.

==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 02/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[G.B.]

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 22
Issued at 6:45 am WDT on Sunday, 2 March 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Broome
The warning for coastal and island areas between Cockatoo Island to Cape Leveque
has been CANCELLED.

At 6:00 am WDT Tropical Cyclone Ophelia, Category 2 was estimated to be
125 kilometres west of Cape Leveque and
200 kilometres north northwest of Broome and
moving west southwest at 13 kilometres per hour

Tropical Cyclone Ophelia continues to develop off the west Kimberley coast and
is expected to maintain a west southwesterly track.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may be experienced in coastal areas
between Cape Leveque and Broome for a period during Sunday morning. The risk of
gales should then ease from the northeast as the system moves away from the
coast.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Ophelia at 6:00 am WDT:
.Centre located near...... 16.2 degrees South 121.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 980 hectoPascals

FESA - State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between Cape Leveque and Broome should listen for the next
advice.

The next advice will be issued by 10:00 am WDT Sunday 02 March.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[KWT]

I don't think it looks that wierd its just probably taking in slightly more stable air from Australia on that soutyhern side, i remember Nicholas looking strange for that reason as well, i think as it gets further away from land it'll sort itself out.