WTXS32 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (JOKWE) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
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WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 14.5S 42.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 42.9E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 15.4S 41.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 16.5S 39.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.7S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 18.9S 38.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 42.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM
NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 22S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE STORM. THE STORM HAS BRIEFLY TRACKED WESTWARD
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, BUT THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A
MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 06 HOURS AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE STORM BEGINS
TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN AND THEN WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM HAS ONCE AGAIN INTENSIFIED AND
IS NOW DISPLAYING A 07 NM DIAMETER EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 TO 90 KNOTS
FROM THE AVAILABLE FIX AGENCIES. TC 22S WILL MAINTAIN THIS
INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 12 AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION AND AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS IT TRACKS
ALONG THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE
TO THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE THAT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BELOW THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE DUE TO
THE ANTICIPATED LAND INTERACTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 071200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z AND 081500Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (NONAME) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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