First JMA advisory
** WTPQ20 RJTD 150000 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150000UTC 10.0N 117.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 160000UTC 11.7N 113.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
NWPAC: 台风“浣熊” STS Neoguri (0801/02W)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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Derek Ortt
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senorpepr
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Tropical depression finds its way to Central Visayas
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Tropical depression Ambo found its way to Central Visayas in the middle of summer at a speed of 45 kilometers per hour.
Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services Administration-Visayas head Oscar Tabada said Storm Signal Number 1 was raised over Dumaguete City to northern part of Oriental Negros and southern part of Cebu yesterday dawn.
As of 2 p.m. yesterday, Ambo was leaving Dumaguete City towards Palawan, Tabada said. It is expected to be at the vicinity of Puerto Princesa City this morning.
Tabada said it is not unusual for a typhoon to hit the country during summer. He said tropical disturbances are expected to enter the country any month, although most of them occurred during the southwest monsoon season.
Tropical depressions during southwest monsoon season, which occurs from July to August, are mostly happening in Luzon.
During the northeast monsoon, Tabada said, the Visayas and Mindanao are usually affected by weather disturbances.
Since 1940, there were two tropical disturbances recorded to have occurred in the month of April. The first one was in 1991 with tropical depression “Bebeng.”
In 1994, topical storm “Besing” occurred also in April and caused several damages to lives, crops and properties.
Office of Civil Defense spokesperson Neil Sanchez said there were no reports on damages or casualties brought about by Ambo from the local government units. — Ferliza C. Contratista with Anthony S. Teo/LPM
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Tropical depression Ambo found its way to Central Visayas in the middle of summer at a speed of 45 kilometers per hour.
Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services Administration-Visayas head Oscar Tabada said Storm Signal Number 1 was raised over Dumaguete City to northern part of Oriental Negros and southern part of Cebu yesterday dawn.
As of 2 p.m. yesterday, Ambo was leaving Dumaguete City towards Palawan, Tabada said. It is expected to be at the vicinity of Puerto Princesa City this morning.
Tabada said it is not unusual for a typhoon to hit the country during summer. He said tropical disturbances are expected to enter the country any month, although most of them occurred during the southwest monsoon season.
Tropical depressions during southwest monsoon season, which occurs from July to August, are mostly happening in Luzon.
During the northeast monsoon, Tabada said, the Visayas and Mindanao are usually affected by weather disturbances.
Since 1940, there were two tropical disturbances recorded to have occurred in the month of April. The first one was in 1991 with tropical depression “Bebeng.”
In 1994, topical storm “Besing” occurred also in April and caused several damages to lives, crops and properties.
Office of Civil Defense spokesperson Neil Sanchez said there were no reports on damages or casualties brought about by Ambo from the local government units. — Ferliza C. Contratista with Anthony S. Teo/LPM
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senorpepr
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Now... what will JMA do at 06Z?
Here's the JTWC bulletin:
WTPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 10.6N 117.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6N 117.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 11.6N 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 12.3N 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 13.2N 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 14.3N 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 16.7N 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 18.6N 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.1N 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 10.9N 116.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PUNTA BAJA HARBOR HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.
//
NNNN
Here's the JTWC bulletin:
WTPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 02W WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 10.6N 117.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6N 117.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 11.6N 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 12.3N 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 13.2N 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 14.3N 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 16.7N 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 18.6N 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.1N 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 10.9N 116.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PUNTA BAJA HARBOR HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.
//
NNNN
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senorpepr
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Re:
RL3AO wrote:Why did you change the name? It is Tropical Storm 02W. If you want, put Tropical Depression (JMA)/Tropical Storm 02W (JTWC).
Unless something has changed, we use official names for systems. Officially, this system is a TD.
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Re: Re:
senorpepr wrote:RL3AO wrote:Why did you change the name? It is Tropical Storm 02W. If you want, put Tropical Depression (JMA)/Tropical Storm 02W (JTWC).
Unless something has changed, we use official names for systems. Officially, this system is a TD.
Then drop the 02W because the JMA does not number TDs. Its official name is tropical depression.
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senorpepr
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Re: Re:
RL3AO wrote:senorpepr wrote:RL3AO wrote:Why did you change the name? It is Tropical Storm 02W. If you want, put Tropical Depression (JMA)/Tropical Storm 02W (JTWC).
Unless something has changed, we use official names for systems. Officially, this system is a TD.
Then drop the 02W because the JMA does not number TDs. Its official name is tropical depression.
How's that for a compromise?
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senorpepr
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Song Tu Tay, Vietnam (160mi WNW of 02W)
Time: 15th / 00Z
Visibility: 12mi
Wind: Variable at 8kt
Temperature: 81°F
Dewpoint: 77°F
Pressure: 1007.2mb
Precipitaton: 0.12" in the past 12 hours
Weather: Past thunderstorms and light rainshowers--not at time of observation
Sky Condition: 2/8 cumulus at 1500ft, 2/8 cumulonimbus at 2500ft, 7/8 stratocumulus at 4000ft
Nensha Island, China (153mi WSW of 02W)
Time: 15th / 03Z
Visibility: 3.1mi
Wind: 110° at 5kt
Temperature: 79°F
Dewpoint: 77°F
Pressure: 1007.8mb
Precipitaton: 1.06" in the past (unknown) hours
Weather: Moderate rain
Sky Condition: 4/8 stratocumulus, 8/8 altostratus
Time: 15th / 00Z
Visibility: 12mi
Wind: Variable at 8kt
Temperature: 81°F
Dewpoint: 77°F
Pressure: 1007.2mb
Precipitaton: 0.12" in the past 12 hours
Weather: Past thunderstorms and light rainshowers--not at time of observation
Sky Condition: 2/8 cumulus at 1500ft, 2/8 cumulonimbus at 2500ft, 7/8 stratocumulus at 4000ft
Nensha Island, China (153mi WSW of 02W)
Time: 15th / 03Z
Visibility: 3.1mi
Wind: 110° at 5kt
Temperature: 79°F
Dewpoint: 77°F
Pressure: 1007.8mb
Precipitaton: 1.06" in the past (unknown) hours
Weather: Moderate rain
Sky Condition: 4/8 stratocumulus, 8/8 altostratus
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wyq614
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- Contact:
China Meteorological Agency (CMA) bulletin, something like JTWC's TCFA.:
目前在南海南部海面有热带低压活动，今天上午8点钟低压中心位于我国海南省三亚市东南方向大约1250公里的南海南部海面上，就是北纬10.0度，东经117.4度，中心附近最大风力有7级（15米/秒）。
预计，低压中心将以每小时15公里左右的速度向西偏北方向移动，以后将转向西北方向移动，强度逐渐加强，并有可能于未来24小时内发展成为今年第1号热带风暴。受其影响，未来两天，南海南部和中部海面将有6-8级大风，部分海域阵风可达9-10级。
A tropical depression is currently active in the south of South China Sea, at 0800 Beijing Time (GMT+8) it is centered at 1250km southeast of Sanya City, Hainan, i.e. 10N 117.4E. The maximum sustained winds near the center is 7 bft (15m/s)
The center of the depression will move West northwestward at 15km/h and should intensify. Thus is probable that it become the No.1 Tropical Storm of this year during next 24 hours. Under its influence, during the next 24-48 hours, 6-8 bft wind gusting to 9-10 bft will occur in the south and central part of the South China Sea.
目前在南海南部海面有热带低压活动，今天上午8点钟低压中心位于我国海南省三亚市东南方向大约1250公里的南海南部海面上，就是北纬10.0度，东经117.4度，中心附近最大风力有7级（15米/秒）。
预计，低压中心将以每小时15公里左右的速度向西偏北方向移动，以后将转向西北方向移动，强度逐渐加强，并有可能于未来24小时内发展成为今年第1号热带风暴。受其影响，未来两天，南海南部和中部海面将有6-8级大风，部分海域阵风可达9-10级。
A tropical depression is currently active in the south of South China Sea, at 0800 Beijing Time (GMT+8) it is centered at 1250km southeast of Sanya City, Hainan, i.e. 10N 117.4E. The maximum sustained winds near the center is 7 bft (15m/s)
The center of the depression will move West northwestward at 15km/h and should intensify. Thus is probable that it become the No.1 Tropical Storm of this year during next 24 hours. Under its influence, during the next 24-48 hours, 6-8 bft wind gusting to 9-10 bft will occur in the south and central part of the South China Sea.
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Named. TS Neoguri (0801).
** WTJP21 RJTD 150600 ***
WARNING 150600.
WARNING VALID 160600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 0801 NEOGURI (0801) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
998 HPA
AT 10.5N 116.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 11.3N 113.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 12.8N 111.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 13.9N 109.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
** WTPQ20 RJTD 150600 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0801 NEOGURI (0801) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150600UTC 10.5N 116.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 160600UTC 11.3N 113.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 170600UTC 12.8N 111.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 180600UTC 13.9N 109.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =
** WTJP21 RJTD 150600 ***
WARNING 150600.
WARNING VALID 160600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 0801 NEOGURI (0801) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
998 HPA
AT 10.5N 116.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 11.3N 113.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 12.8N 111.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 13.9N 109.7E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
** WTPQ20 RJTD 150600 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0801 NEOGURI (0801) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150600UTC 10.5N 116.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 160600UTC 11.3N 113.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 170600UTC 12.8N 111.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 180600UTC 13.9N 109.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =
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wyq614
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Tropical Cyclone Advisories and Warnings from
China (CMA)
WTPQ20 BABJ 150600
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS NEOGURI 0801 (0801) INITIAL TIME 150600 UTC
00HR 10.5N 116.3E 998HPA 18M/S
30KTS 120KM
P12HR WNW 10KM/H
P+24HR 11.7N 114.0E 990HPA 23M/S
P+48HR 13.4N 111.8E 985HPA 25M/S
P+72HR 15.8N 110.6E 980HPA 30M/S=
NNNN
China (CMA)
WTPQ20 BABJ 150600
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS NEOGURI 0801 (0801) INITIAL TIME 150600 UTC
00HR 10.5N 116.3E 998HPA 18M/S
30KTS 120KM
P12HR WNW 10KM/H
P+24HR 11.7N 114.0E 990HPA 23M/S
P+48HR 13.4N 111.8E 985HPA 25M/S
P+72HR 15.8N 110.6E 980HPA 30M/S=
NNNN
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