Myanmar / TC NARGIS (TC 01B) Update: 84,500 dead

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

That's brilliant.

[senorpepr]

They did not issue a 0Z update yet?

It is 330Z now!

No, their updates are a few hours old when published.


Here's the advisory link: http://www.imd.ernet.in/section/nhac/dynamic/cwind.htm

The latest advisory (2330 hours IST) is from 1800Z

[HURAKAN]

That looks like a storm with the intensity of a hurricane looking at you.

[Chacor]

BOB 01/2008/05 Dated: 28th April, 2008







Subject: Cyclonic storm “NARGIS” over southwest and adjoining southeast and westcentral

Bay of Bengal.



Yesterday’s deep depression over southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards, intensified into a cyclonic storm “NARGIS” and lay centred at 0530 hours IST of today, the 28th April 2008 over southwest and adjoining southeast and westcentral Bay of Bengal near lat. 13.0 deg N and long. 85.5 deg E, about 550 km east of Chennai. Numerical Weather Preditction models suggest that the system is likely to intensify further and move in a northwesterly direction slowly for some more time. Thereafter, it is likely to recurve and move northeastwards.



Under its influence, rain/thundershower is likely at many places with isolated heavy falls over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 48 hours.



Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph is likely along and off north Tamilnadu and Andhra Pradesh coast during next 24 hours. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea

[Chacor]

The IMD fix at 0300z is T2.5, which means the official warning intensity is 35 kts. Which is ridiculous. I wouldn't say this is hurricane-strength but it's certainly not 35 kts. They don't use METEOSAT-7 IR for their Dvorak fixes, they use their own Kalpana satellites. They aren't going to see any eye until it's a bloody hole in the middle of the storm, so expect their fixes and advisories to be on the very low end.

[HURAKAN]

35 knots is laughable.

[Derek Ortt]

what is the resolution of the Kaplana satellites? I hope they are not using 16KM resolution

[Derek Ortt]

just checked

http://en.allmetsat.com/satellite-kalpana.php

8km. However, they have a 2km visible satellite. They should use that to make their Dvorak (which the subjective can be done on visible)

[HURAKAN]

[RattleMan]

RSMC- TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI DATED 28-04-2008



TROPCAL STORM “NARGIS” ADVISORY NO. ONE ISSUED AT 0300 UTC OF 28TH APRIL 2008 BASED ON 0000 UTC CHARTS OF 28 TH APRIL 2008.

YESTERDAY’S DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINING SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFIED INTO A CYCLONIC STORM “NARGIS” AND LAY CENTRED AT 0000 UTC OF TODAY, THE 28TH APRIL 2008 OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST AND WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LAT. 13.00 N AND LONG 85.50 E, ABOUT 550 KM EAST OF CHENNAI (43279). CURRENT INTENSITY IS T2.5 RPT T2.5. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 40-50 KTS. SEA CONDITION IS HIGH TO VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 HPA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS BETWEEN LATITUDE 10.00 TO 15.50 NORTH AND LONG 81.50 TO 87.50 EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.

FORECAST: THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION SLOWLY FOR SOME MORE TIME. THEREAFTER, IT IS LIKELY TO RECURVE AND MOVE NORTHEAST WARDS. FORECAST INTENSITY AT 290000 UTC IS T3.5 RPT T3.5.

http://www.imd.ernet.in/section/nhac/dynamic/rsmc.htm

[HURAKAN]

Hurricane intensity. No question about it!

[HURAKAN]

Looks really nice.

[Pedro Fernández]

Wow............ NARGIS could became a very intense typhoon. Bay of Bengal is plenty of heat content... I agree with wunderground intensity forecast (category 3 in SS).

[Pedro Fernández]

Here we go.................. 65 KT for NARGIS, and eye developed. This means it has reached category 1 in the Simpson Scale. I would say we will observe the development of a monster.

[HURAKAN]

Loses Organization:

0434:


0930:

[Chacor]

From 06z:

378
FKIN20 VIDP 280835

DTG: 20080428/0600Z
TCAC: NEW DELHI
TC: NARGIS
NR: 02


PSN: N1300 E08530
MOV: NW05KT
C: 994 HPA

MAX WIND: 45KT GUSTING TO 55KT

FCST PSN+ 12 HRS: 281800 N 1330 E08500
MAX WIND+12 HRS: 55KT
FCST PSN +18HRS: 290000 N 1330 E 08500
MAX WIND+18HRS : 60KT
FCST PSN+24HRS : 290600 N 1400 E 08500
MAX WIND+24HRS : 65 KT

NEXT MSG: 20080428/1200Z
------------------------

They are calling for VSCS strength, to be fair. And the IMD forecast calls for VSCS in 24 hours - 24 hours away the JTWC forecast is for a borderline Cat 2-equivalent 85 kts... If the IMD is 10-minutes (there's some confusion over whether they use 3 or 10 minutes), 65*1.148 = 74.62 kts 1-min, which seems fair enough.

[P.K.]

DEMS at T3.5 (Now doing hourly updates it seems http://www.imd.ernet.in/section/satmet/img/bay_ir.jpg), KNES at T4.0 and PGTW at T4.0 as well.

[Chacor]

Doesn't look as good as it did earlier today and quite possibly could've weakened quite a bit. You can barely detect a cloudy-looking eye on the IMD's IR at 11z. 65 kts (1-min), or even 60, right now seems fair.

[HURAKAN]

Could still be at huricane intensity.