NW Pacific: TY Rammasun (0802/03W)

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Ed Mahmoud

Re: STS Rammasun (0802/03W; PAGASA Butchoy) - E of Mindanao

#61 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Thu May 08, 2008 2:17 pm

I don't think that comment on the other RSMCs/TCWCs is particularly fair however.



I was referring less to Mr. Ortt's issues with the IMD during the Myanmar disaster than last year, when they seemed to ignore TCs that threatened Pakistan.



India and Pakistan have a rather long unpleasant history since the partition, and have been in an almost continuous state of low intensity war, occasionally livened up when Pakistan's ISS supports raids by al Qaeda linked terrorists into New Delhi.
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#62 Postby HURAKAN » Thu May 08, 2008 3:18 pm

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#63 Postby senorpepr » Thu May 08, 2008 6:54 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 082100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0802 RAMMASUN (0802)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 082100UTC 10.1N 131.5E GOOD
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM SOUTHWEST 150NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 092100UTC 13.9N 132.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 101800UTC 17.0N 132.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 111800UTC 21.7N 134.6E 290NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =
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#64 Postby Chacor » Thu May 08, 2008 7:04 pm

Senor, can you please get the admins to update the active storms list?
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#65 Postby Cyclenall » Thu May 08, 2008 9:01 pm

Now it's starting to curl up meaning there is an attempt to form an eyewall.
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#66 Postby senorpepr » Thu May 08, 2008 10:21 pm

WTPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 03W (RAMMASUN) WARNING NR 008
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 03W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 11.1N 132.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1N 132.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 12.8N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 14.8N 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 16.8N 132.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 19.2N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 24.3N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 31.0N 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 35.2N 158.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 11.5N 132.2E.
TYPHOON (TY) 03W (RAMMASUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 940 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z,
091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.//
NNNN
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#67 Postby RL3AO » Thu May 08, 2008 10:39 pm

Image
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#68 Postby senorpepr » Thu May 08, 2008 10:48 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 090300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0802 RAMMASUN (0802)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090300UTC 11.3N 131.8E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM SOUTHWEST 150NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 100300UTC 15.6N 132.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 110000UTC 18.5N 132.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 120000UTC 23.9N 136.3E 270NM 70%
MOVE NNE 16KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =
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#69 Postby HURAKAN » Thu May 08, 2008 10:52 pm

Image

Image

Image
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Re: STS Rammasun (0802/ TY 03W; PAGASA Butchoy) - E of Mindanao

#70 Postby P.K. » Fri May 09, 2008 7:19 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 090900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0802 RAMMASUN (0802)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090900UTC 12.2N 132.1E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM SOUTHWEST 150NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 100900UTC 16.5N 131.5E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 110600UTC 20.4N 132.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 120600UTC 27.5N 137.8E 270NM 70%
MOVE NNE 20KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =
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#71 Postby HURAKAN » Fri May 09, 2008 7:20 am

Image

Large eye developing.
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#72 Postby HURAKAN » Fri May 09, 2008 7:29 am

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Great intensification over the past 24 hrs.
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#73 Postby Chacor » Fri May 09, 2008 7:37 am

TCNA21 RJTD 091200
CCAA 09120 47644 RAMMASUN(0802) 04128 11321 12344 250// 93506=

Up to T5.0 from JMA.
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#74 Postby Chacor » Fri May 09, 2008 7:53 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 091200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0802 RAMMASUN (0802)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091200UTC 12.7N 132.1E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT

50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM SOUTHWEST 150NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 101200UTC 17.1N 131.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 111200UTC 21.8N 133.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 121200UTC 28.6N 139.6E 270NM 70%
MOVE NE 22KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

Can the title be updated? It's been a typhoon for over six hours now.
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#75 Postby Chacor » Fri May 09, 2008 8:45 am

Image

Wow. Looks like it has quite the power.
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#76 Postby HURAKAN » Fri May 09, 2008 8:46 am

Image

Image

NRL: 80 knts
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#77 Postby HURAKAN » Fri May 09, 2008 12:23 pm

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Image

Looking great.
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#78 Postby Pedro Fernández » Fri May 09, 2008 12:32 pm

09/1430 UTC 13.1N 131.8E T5.0/5.0 RAMMASUN -- West Pacific Ocean

This is the last update in DVORAK numbers...

5 90 KTS 104 MPH 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS)

Looking at this data and satellite image appearance, can we say RAMMASUN is a category 2 typhoon (Saffir Simpson Scale)?

The eyeweall is a little eroded in the northwestern flank, but it looks like much better consolidated over the rest of it.
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#79 Postby Chacor » Fri May 09, 2008 12:34 pm

80 kts from JTWC; 70 from JMA. Also, 70 kts 10-min = 80 kts 1-min.
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#80 Postby HURAKAN » Fri May 09, 2008 1:24 pm

Image

Image

More and more impressive by the minute.
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