EPAC: Invest 91E - Southern México

[ncupsscweather]

I have a feeling 91E may become a TD or TS later today.

[Chacor]

Now red on the graphical TWO.


A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO. DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED...AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER
WATER...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME WITHIN THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE CIRCULATION CENTER MOVES VERY SLOWLY AND
GENERALLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EL SALVADOR...
GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

[Meso]

[StormspinnerD2]

TCFA.

WTPN21 PGTW 030800
ALERT ATCF MIL 91E XXX 080603000000


2008060300
14.0 266.8
18.1 266.7
85
14.8 266.9
030800
0806030751
1


SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//


RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN

085 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.0N 93.2W TO 18.1N 93.3W

WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY

ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-

AGERY AT 030730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED

NEAR 14.8N 93.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR
CANCELLED BY 040800Z.
//

9108060200 134N 940W 25

9108060206 137N 937W 25

9108060212 140N 934W 25

9108060218 143N 932W 25

9108060300 148N 931W 25

[Thunder44]

Alot of more convection around the center now. It will probably get upgraded later this morning.

[Meso]

[Thunder44]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031122
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUN 3 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST
OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME PRIOR TO THE SYSTEM
REACHING LAND LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EL SALVADOR...
GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Chacor]

ATCF says no upgrade yet. Time is running out before it reaches land...

EP, 91, 2008060312, , BEST, 0, 153N, 933W, 25, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[cycloneye]

No upgrade from models.

WHXX01 KMIA 031220
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1220 UTC TUE JUN 3 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP912008) 20080603 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080603 1200 080604 0000 080604 1200 080605 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.3N 93.3W 16.5N 93.7W 17.5N 94.1W 18.9N 94.5W
BAMD 15.3N 93.3W 16.7N 93.6W 17.8N 93.7W 18.6N 94.0W
BAMM 15.3N 93.3W 16.7N 93.7W 17.8N 94.0W 18.7N 94.6W
LBAR 15.3N 93.3W 16.2N 93.9W 17.3N 94.9W 18.4N 95.8W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 30KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 26KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080605 1200 080606 1200 080607 1200 080608 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.2N 95.0W 23.0N 96.9W 25.0N 99.6W 26.6N 102.1W
BAMD 19.2N 94.6W 20.6N 96.3W 21.9N 98.5W 22.7N 100.6W
BAMM 19.4N 95.4W 20.8N 97.2W 21.6N 99.9W 22.1N 102.9W
LBAR 19.8N 96.9W 22.6N 98.7W 25.0N 100.1W 25.9N 101.1W
SHIP 38KTS 42KTS 48KTS 52KTS
DSHP 35KTS 34KTS 28KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.3N LONCUR = 93.3W DIRCUR = 355DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 14.7N LONM12 = 93.1W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 93.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Thunder44]

Latest microwave imagery shows rainbands are pretty well organized around the center, but it appears to be very close to land and it's small. It will interesting to see if NHC decides uprgaded this today. Looks like it qualifies as a TD to me:

[curtadams]

It would probably qualify as a TD if you flew recon through but the NHC won't upgrade unless it was Dvorak 2.0 or something reliable measured a 25+ knot sustained wind and I don't see that happening.

[Chacor]

T1.5s from both SAB and TAFB (SAB's webpage is not updating right now, so I'm quoting from the ATCF file):

EP, 91, 200806031145, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1520N, 9340W, , 3, 25, 3, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , SAB, MN, I, 5, 1515 /////, , , GOES12, CSC, T,
EP, 91, 200806031145, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1520N, 9340W, , 3, 25, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , TAFB, MN, I, 5, 1515 /////, , , GOES12, CSC, T, DT = 1.5 BASED ON 0.3 BANDING WITH (T+0.5) WHITE B

[KWT]

Its close, there is a case for both upgrading and also keeping it as an invest. Personally I'd upgrade it given the closed circulation evident and the convection present nearby.

Track is still going to prove interesting, esp if it doesn't develop and remains an area of voricity like presently. I'm still not sure what to think about this but it is somewhat of an unusual set-up.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its upgradeable, but it will likely be inland by this evening anyways.

[KWT]

Yep that may well be the case Matt but then again Arthur was upgraded overland so they may end up upgrading if the data comes in, its just a case of waiting and seeing.

[Thunder44]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031745
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1100 AM PDT TUE JUN 3 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST
OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. DUE TO
ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS
LESS LIKELY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ORRISON/OTTO

This area is now yellow too.

[Category 5]

Doesn't appear as if it will become anything now. However, this is still a significant flood hazard.

[Cyclenall]

This shows what I'm concerned with, and what I'm not concerned with. It's simple.

[StormspinnerD2]

If your area of concern is designated an invest, I think it would be the first one in either the EPAC or Atlantic that is not associated with that broad low over Central America.

[Tampa_God]

I don't see this having time to intensify anymore. It was probably a very weak TD before now, but it has no chance in gaining strength. Maybe this will be more of a problem when it enters the BOC???