EPAC: Tropical Depression Elida

[Ad Novoxium]

It's got big shoes to fill for 2002's Elida, same place of formation, same month.

[KWT]

Yep I don't think its likely to get even nearly as strong as that one did though because Elida 2002 was a beast of a storm.

[Thunder44]

New contest for Elida

viewtopic.php?f=25&t=101793&p=1733965#p1733965

[HURAKAN]

Very strong convection.

[Chacor]

ATCF said 35 kts but TPC initialises at 40.

846
WTPZ21 KNHC 121448
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
1500 UTC SAT JUL 12 2008

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 98.5W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 98.5W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 98.0W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 13.9N 100.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 14.8N 102.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.6N 104.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.3N 106.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 25SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.3N 110.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 18.0N 113.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 18.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 98.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Chacor]

WTPZ31 KNHC 121449
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2008

...ELIDA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...

AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.5 WEST OR ABOUT 270
MILES...440 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A LITTLE DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...13.2 N...98.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Chacor]

WTPZ41 KNHC 121451
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2008

A TIMELY 1227 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE HELPED TO DETERMINE THE
LOCATION OF ELIDA'S CENTER THIS MORNING...WHICH IS NOW EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION. ELIDA'S OUTFLOW REMAINS A LITTLE
RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE...SUGGESTING SOME
EASTERLY SHEAR REMAINS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN
DISAGREEMENT THIS MORNING. THE GFDL AND HWRF SHOW ONLY
MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND KEEPS ELIDA BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH. MEANWHILE...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE PREDICTS STEADY
STRENGTHENING AND BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO HURRICANE INTENSITY
IN 36-48 HOURS. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE AND IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION
GUIDANCE PREDICTS A 33% CHANCE OF 30 KT OR GREATER INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
PREDICTED.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/14 KT. ELIDA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER MEXICO.
THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR
THE GFS...WHICH SLOWS THE STORM DOWN AS THE MODEL DEVELOPS A
STRONGER CYCLONE TO THE EAST OF ELIDA. THIS SOLUTION SEEMS
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VIRTUALLY
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1500Z 13.2N 98.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 13.9N 100.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 14.8N 102.4W 55 KT
36HR VT 14/0000Z 15.6N 104.6W 60 KT
48HR VT 14/1200Z 16.3N 106.8W 65 KT
72HR VT 15/1200Z 17.3N 110.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 16/1200Z 18.0N 113.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 17/1200Z 18.0N 117.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[CrazyC83]

Probably strengthened in the last couple hours.

[CrazyC83]

Is it just me or does Elida look to be rapidly intensifying?

[HURAKAN]

Doesn't look like to be rapidly intensifying.

[HURAKAN]

550
WHXX01 KMIA 121832
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1832 UTC SAT JUL 12 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE ELIDA (EP062008) 20080712 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080712 1800 080713 0600 080713 1800 080714 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.2N 99.8W 13.8N 101.0W 14.4N 102.5W 15.2N 103.8W
BAMD 13.2N 99.8W 13.7N 102.0W 14.1N 104.1W 14.7N 106.1W
BAMM 13.2N 99.8W 13.6N 101.6W 14.0N 103.4W 14.5N 105.0W
LBAR 13.2N 99.8W 14.0N 102.4W 14.8N 105.4W 15.7N 108.6W
SHIP 40KTS 52KTS 63KTS 72KTS
DSHP 40KTS 52KTS 63KTS 72KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080714 1800 080715 1800 080716 1800 080717 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.8N 105.3W 16.3N 108.9W 16.7N 114.1W 16.6N 120.0W
BAMD 15.2N 108.3W 15.7N 113.3W 15.9N 119.2W 16.1N 125.4W
BAMM 14.9N 106.7W 15.0N 110.7W 15.0N 116.0W 14.4N 121.8W
LBAR 16.7N 111.6W 18.6N 117.6W 20.1N 122.9W .0N .0W
SHIP 76KTS 71KTS 62KTS 57KTS
DSHP 76KTS 71KTS 62KTS 57KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.2N LONCUR = 99.8W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 12.4N LONM12 = 96.6W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 11.1N LONM24 = 93.9W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 45NM

$$
NNNN

[RL3AO]

IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION
GUIDANCE PREDICTS A 33% CHANCE OF 30 KT OR GREATER INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

At least we have a clear knowledge of what that actually means now.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

06E
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA 18:00UTC 12July2008
UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates

Current Conditions (from TPC) :
Latitude : 13:33:42 N
Longitude : 99:12:32 W
Intensity (MSLP) : 1002.5 hPa

Max Pot Int (MPI,from Emanuel) : 898.8 hPa
MPI differential (MSLP-MPI) : 103.7 hPa

CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 11.6 m/s
Direction : 83.5 deg

Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current
Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential
Forecast Interval : 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
N N N N

Legend : VF-Very Favorable F-Favorable N-Neutral
U-Unfavorable VU-Very Unfavorable

-- Mean Intensity Trend (negative indicates TC deepening) --
6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
VF <-3.0mb/ 6hr <-6.0mb/12hr <-9.0mb/18hr <-12.0mb/24hr
F -3.0 - -1.0 -6.0 - -2.0 -9.0 - -3.0 -12.0 - -4.0
N -1.0 - +1.0 -2.0 - +2.0 -3.0 - +3.0 -4.0 - +4.0
U +1.0 - +3.0 +2.0 - +6.0 +3.0 - +9.0 +4.0 -+12.0
VU >+3.0 >+6.0 >+9.0 >+12.0

- Current shear charts for the NORTHEAST PACIFIC BASIN can be found at :
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... s-shr.html
- Additional information about this product can be found at :
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/other/shear.html
- Contact : Chris Velden (chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu)
CIMSS Internal Code : Basin - eastpac Storm - ELIDA

[KWT]

It doesn't look great but at the same time it doesn't look all that bad either, I feel 40kts is pretty reasonable, doesn't seem to be strengthening all that rapidly right now anyway.

[RL3AO]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 122045
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 12 2008

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RATHER WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND
OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM...WHILE NEW
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER. ASCAT DATA
FROM 1550 UTC INDICATE THAT THE WINDS WERE AROUND 40 KT...WHICH IS
IN LINE WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35
TO 45 KT. EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT ELIDA AS THE OUTFLOW
REMAINS NEARLY NON-EXISTENT OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE MAIN
QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE SHEAR WILL RELAX DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO TO ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING. EVEN THOUGH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE
SHOWS MODERATE SHEAR CONTINUING...IT INSISTS THAT ELIDA WILL REACH
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE HWRF IS VERY SIMILAR IN
BRINGING THE STORM TO A HURRICANE IN ABOUT A DAY. MEANWHILE...THE
LGEM AND GFDL MODELS ONLY PREDICT MODEST STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE SHEAR WILL
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT STRENGTHENING...BUT THE FORECAST IS
LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. WEAKENING IS INDICATED
AFTER 72 HOURS AS ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS.

BERTHA IS MOVING BRISKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290/15 KT. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SOUTH OF A
LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD SLOW DOWN OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS...BUT
OTHERWISE IS UNCHANGED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 13.5N 100.4W 40 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 14.4N 102.4W 50 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 15.6N 104.8W 55 KT
36HR VT 14/0600Z 16.4N 107.1W 65 KT
48HR VT 14/1800Z 17.0N 109.2W 65 KT
72HR VT 15/1800Z 17.5N 112.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 16/1800Z 18.0N 115.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 17/1800Z 18.0N 118.5W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 122043
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
2100 UTC SAT JUL 12 2008

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 100.4W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 100.4W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 99.8W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 14.4N 102.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.6N 104.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.4N 107.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 25SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.0N 109.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.5N 112.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 18.0N 115.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 18.0N 118.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 100.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


000
WTPZ31 KNHC 122044
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 12 2008

...ELIDA MOVING BRISKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...

AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.4 WEST OR ABOUT 235
MILES...380 KM...SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AND ABOUT 335 MILES...535
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO.

ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND
ELIDA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF COULD BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...13.5 N...100.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[AnnularCane]

BERTHA IS MOVING BRISKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290/15 KT. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SOUTH OF A
LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD SLOW DOWN OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS...BUT
OTHERWISE IS UNCHANGED.

Bertha on the brain?

[RL3AO]

BERTHA IS MOVING BRISKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290/15 KT. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SOUTH OF A
LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD SLOW DOWN OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS...BUT
OTHERWISE IS UNCHANGED.

Bertha on the brain?

Haha.

[HURAKAN]

Too much Betha.

[HURAKAN]