ATL: Tropical Storm Cristobal in North Atlantic

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think this has low shear over it and a high near it so that with very warm Sea Surface
Temperatures, Heat Content of the Gulf Stream, Moisture could
allow 96L to easily intensify into a strong tropical storm or
hurricane, given slow movement and thus more time over
water. The track would point to the Carolinas as the
primary area to be impacted by the future location of
96L.

12 hour Forecast- 35 mph Tropical Depression
24 hour Forecast- 50 mph Tropical Storm
48 hour Forecast- 80 mph Hurricane
Track into the Carolinas at 48 Hours, most likely North
Carolina.

[KWT]

That maybe true but this still needs to be watched IMO, anyway I'm really surprised they have'nt put a floater on this one given its near the US and 95L isn't going to do anything. Its got a clear circulation and if it gains any deep convection near the center then I ewouldn't be surrpised if they do upgade it.

I'm really interested to see what some of the higher resolution models do with this system.

[jaxfladude]

Just a rainmaker for eastern NC, they need rain badly(96L).....the other invests also rainmakers ...TD or a weak TS at most..

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

***NOT OFFICIAL***
Heat Content and aforementioned factors in my forecast
on page 3 make me think a strong TS 70 mph or 80 mph
Hurricane may form before landfall around the Carolinas.
My scientific reasoning is on Page 3.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Just a rainmaker for eastern NC, they need rain badly(96L).....the other invests also rainmakers ...TD or a weak TS at most..

And do you have any scientific thinking to back this statement up or is it just your personal feeling?

[KWT]

Who knows to be honest but I think this has a far greater chance of forming then not forming at this present moment given all the factora are present.

[brunota2003]

If it gets going, look for more than a TD or weak TS.

[jaxfladude]

Just a rainmaker for eastern NC, they need rain badly(96L).....the other invests also rainmakers ...TD or a weak TS at most..

And do you have any scientific thinking to back this statement up or is it just your personal feeling?

Just my feelings and not wanting Eastern NC getting too much in addition of much needed rain....
Forgot to add that little snippet....
I hate RI systems...

[KWT]

Well I think if it can stay offshore for more then 24hrs then its got a fair chance of becoming a named storm IMO however I really haven't got a clue how strong it may become if it can get going. Got the best shot out of the 3 invests though in the next 24hrs IMO.

[storms in NC]

We will know more in the Morning I think. Just talked with Mom outside She said the News didn't say much other than some rain. I will look in a few and see what the news people have to say. I still say TS and CAPE FEAR River. JIMO Only

[Ed Mahmoud]

Waiting to see if sunset, and quieting of land based storms, may mean an increase in convection near the center.

[HURAKAN]

Nothing may develop, but it's interesting to point out that it's very rare to have three areas of possible development in the middle of July.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2008

A 1014 MB LOW IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA NEAR
30.5N80.5W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
LOW DRIFTS TO THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
IN THE W ATLC FROM 27N-29N W OF 80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N-33N W OF 75W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA
AND GEORGIA.

[KWT]

Will need to be watched Ed, I think the convection is the main thing this ssytem is missing to be honest, if it can gain that then its well on its way to becoming a tropical cyclone.

Hurakan, don't forget Bertha as wel lis on that map!

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2008

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
REMAINS LIMITED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...ESPECIALLY IF THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS
OFFSHORE...AS IT DRIFTS TO THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/ROBERTS

[KWT]

Very interesting HURAKAN I think that just sums up what you most people think about 96L, though I actually think this could get going a little faster then what is estiamted right now.

[HURAKAN]

[ColdFusion]

Not much of a Northly drift in that loop.

[jrod]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


The spin in the atmosphere might increase the chances of weak tornadoes and watersports. The nearshore waters are cooler than normal and I don't expect fast development if any.

[jrod]

I just now read the outlook.

NWS:

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND A MOIST
AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. A SLOW STORM MOTION AND TRAINING OF CELLS WILL HELP PROMOTE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. IN ADDITION...DUE TO
THE LOW PRESSURE FEATURE AND THE MOIST AIRMASS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF FUNNEL CLOUDS AND WATERSPOUTS.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA COAST TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST SURF ZONE FORECAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...