Ex Invest 90L

[KWT]

So is it going to be a major issue for this system or will it stay far enough in front of that SAL outbreak?

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 28W FROM 7N TO 15N IS MOVING W 15 TO
20 KT. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS ATTACHED TO THE WAVE AT 11N.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 28W AND 32W AND SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE.

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 42W FROM 12N TO 23N IS MOVING W
ABOUT 15 KT. A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ATTACHED TO THE WAVE AT
18N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED MOSTLY
AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W AND
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE. THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE
SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND A 0850Z QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATES SEVERAL 20 TO 25 KT WIND BARBS EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE
AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN INTRODUCED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 68W
AND IS MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE WAS ADDED BASED ON AN
ANALYSIS OF GOES INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND OVER/NEAR PUERTO RICO. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
LOCATED FROM NEAR 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND 68W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 78W/79W IS MOVING
W 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY WITH
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE AREA ALONG AND OFF THE PANAMA COAST
AND N OF JAMAICA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N20W 9N35W 7N50W 8N59W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 7N19W TO 7N23W LINE AND ALSO ALONG THE
COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN 10W AND 13W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OVER MEXICO
NEAR 21N99W AND IS MOVING W 15 KT. CYCLONIC FLOW IS LOCATED OVER
THE SW GULF OF MEXICO S OF 24N W OF 93W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS
LOCATED ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES BETWEEN WESTERN LOUISIANA
AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW HAS FORMED JUST
W OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION LOCATED N OF 27.5N BETWEEN 85W AND 91W. A
WELL-DEFINED ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS POSITIONED OVER W
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE
CIRCULATION COVERS THE AREA FROM 17N TO 25N BETWEEN 78W AND 85W.
SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATE THE STRONGEST FLOW OVER THE
SW QUADRANT.

REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 45W...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO BEYOND 32N74W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
LOCATED WITHIN 5 TO 6 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THIS AREA. FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...6 TO 7 DEGREES IN
DIAMETER...IS CENTERED NEAR 27N53W AND IS MOVING WNW ABOUT 10
KT. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION INTO THE FAR NE
CARIBBEAN. WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHT OVER THE CARIBBEAN. AT THE
SURFACE A MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
THROUGH 31N38W TO 28N50W TO 26N65W INTO S FLORIDA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN E OF 45W...
OVER THE NE PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC IS CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF 32N30W...MOVING NE 10 TO
15 KT. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION TO NEAR
26N35W. OVER THE DEEP TROPICS WINDS ARE EASTERLY ALOFT AND
MEASURE UP TO 40 KT AS INDICATED BY SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS.

$$
CAB

[cycloneye]

778
ABNT20 KNHC 021738
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LITTLE
MOTION IS ANTICIPATED TODAY OR SUNDAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. IF NECESSARY...A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE
THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC LOCATED ABOUT ABOUT 1150
MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT
15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
IS CENTERED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME
BUT THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO
20 MPH.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[GeneratorPower]

Seems like the NHC thinks this latest round of convection is going to die off rather than maintain. I would think that if they thought this looked all that great they would have used something more than yellow in the GTWO.

[littlevince]

Loop (12:15-17:15z)

[KWT]

This still looks pretty decent on that loop, circulation is still probably not at the surface but its getting better organised from the looks of things with some deep convection still on the western side.

[HURAKAN]

AL, 90, 2008080218, , BEST, 0, 115N, 296W, 25, 1009, DB,

[KWT]

I will be very interested to see how this looks in about 12-24hrs, if it still looks good then I think this has got a good chance of slowly developing as it heads westwards.

[kurtpage]

02/1745 UTC 11.4N 29.4W T1.0/1.0 90L

[KWT]

Upto 1.0 now but still got a ways to go before it has a shot at being upgraded. Still slow strengthening should occur the next 48hrs I'd thought.

[cycloneye]

It looks like 90L is heading into a favorable area as it moves more westward.

[Blown Away]

Doesn't the 2pm Tropical Weather Discussion and Outlook contradict each other with regards to the surface low?

[cycloneye]

Doesn't the 2pm Tropical Weather Discussion and Outlook contradict each other with regards to the surface low?

I think the discussion was made before the TWO was released.

[cycloneye]

Losing visible as its getting dark in the Eastern Atlantic,but you can see how good 90L looks.

[Gustywind]

Doesn't the 2pm Tropical Weather Discussion and Outlook contradict each other with regards to the surface low?

I think the discussion was made before the TWO was released.

Absolutely Cycloneye that's highly credible

[HURAKAN]

DMAX should be interesting.

[Gustywind]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8split.jpg
SAL does not seems a problem, ahead no SAL and surely a window of oportunity. If you look further east on Africa a new train of waves is slightly appearing interresting things to watch....

[Gustywind]

DMAX should be interesting.

Yeah your're right , given the sat pic ... getting fatter and fatter , better convection has began to pop nicely....looks like a strong wave close to TD status ....in the appearence with my untrained eyes

[Nimbus]

Well if there is a 1010 mb low and the environment is semi favorable for development, I wonder how long it will be before they upgrade 90L to TD status?

[cycloneye]

There is a poll in talking tropics forum about which invest will develop first,none will develop,All three will develop.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=102251